FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 4/14/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options each and every day. Let's dig in.
Top of the Heap
Kodai Senga ($10,800), Mets: Senga has a great opportunity for his best start in MLB, which is excellent news considering he's posted 43 FanDuel points in consecutive starts.
Even after a positive weekday series in Baltimore, the Athletics don't figure to turn around their poor metrics against righties. They've got an 85 wRC+ in that split with a 24.9% strikeout rate (10th-highest in MLB).
Senga's swing-and-miss stuff can answer that bell. He's posted a 31.1% strikeout rate, which is backed decently by a 12.3% swinging-strike rate. He's going to post several dominant outings if these numbers hold.
Nestor Cortes ($10,300), Yankees: I'll admit, Cortes is the weakest of these three options at the top.
He's waffled to a 5.06 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and his strikeout rate (19.3%) is down considerably from each of the last two seasons -- when it was at least 26.5%. However, we're dealing with small samples, including fairly tough matchups with the Phillies and Orioles thus far. This will be his easiest test yet.
Outside of Byron Buxton, the Twins don't appear to offer much danger to southpaws. They're a bottom-10 club in OPS (.671) and strikeout rate (27.3%) so far against lefties. Perhaps this is the matchup that gets "Nasty Nestor" moving in the right direction.
Freddy Peralta ($9,800), Brewers: Though Peralta has some concerns, you can do far worse for a four-digit salary on a slate loaded with bats.
Peralta's complied seven strikeouts in both outings thus far, and the Cardinals and Mets were two of the toughest teams against right-handed pitching a year ago. That should bode well for his potential to pile up Ks tonight in San Diego.
The Friars are 12th from the bottom against right-handed pitching in terms of wRC+ (94), and this is an even better matchup for upside. Only the Phillies go down swinging at a higher rate than the Padres do (26.7%) against righties.
Tournament Options
Drew Rasmussen ($11,200), Rays: After getting shut down in consecutive days by the Tigers, the Blue Jays might not be as scary of a matchup for Rasmussen as we'd think.
Still, Toronto's .794 OPS against orthodox hurlers is the fourth-best mark in baseball. Randomness is also likely coming for the 13-0 Rays at some point, but if any pitcher on their staff could avoid it, Rasmussen is it.
The spring rumors about Rasmussen's bump in swing-and-miss ability appear valid. He's got a lofty 13.3% swinging-strike rate, and he's not come close to imminent danger with a 14.1% hard-hit rate allowed. He's yet to cede an earned run, after all.
With all of this said, he faced the Nationals and A's. I don't see the need to prioritize him in this matchup with us having plenty of alternatives.
Charlie Morton ($9,000), Braves: Morton stumbled out of the blocks last year, so I'm not exactly thrilled to see him struggling again when I'm wanting to roster him in DFS.
Morton has a 5.42 SIERA thus far with a wretched 13.5% strikeout rate. That's not a pitcher with upside, but you do see the 3.48 SIERA and 27.2% punchy rate a year ago, and it makes you want to potentially reject a small sample in this delightful matchup.
The Royals stink against righties. They've got a .587 OPS (second-worst in MLB) with a 25.1% strikeout rate in the split. I'll dip to lesser pitchers than Morton to pick on KC this year, so he's my favorite value pitcher of the day given what he showed he's capable of a year ago in a larger sample.
Quick Mound Visits
Justin Steele ($10,500), Cubs: His 0.75 ERA is awesome, but it's masking a 4.36 SIERA. He's actually due for regression on his strikeout volume given a 13.2% swinging-strike rate, but this matchup with the Dodgers would be brutal for even a top-shelf hurler. He's not quite one yet.
Martin Perez ($10,100), Rangers: Houston was the best team against lefties last year, and they're sixth in wRC+ in the split on the young season. His strikeout rate is way up (26.1%), but this isn't the matchup to see if it sticks.
Patrick Sandoval ($9,400), Angels: The Red Sox are a sneaky-good matchup for lefties. They've got the ninth-highest punchout rate (25.7%) against them so far. The problem is Sandoval's 5.64 SIERA and 9.1% strikeout rate are unsightly at the moment.
Luis Garcia ($8,900), Astros: Texas' hot start on offense is already cooling off as they were blanked by Brad Keller on Wednesday. Entering the year, the Rangers were projected to be a bottom-10 club against righties, and Garcia has been a good one. He's just off to a slow start (5.36 SIERA). He's my second-favorite option at or below $9,000.
Austin Gomber ($7,200), Rockies: Too many better alternatives to realistically consider Gomber, but just thought I'd throw this out there. Seattle has a bottom-five wRC+ (71) and strikeout rate (32.6%) against southpaws this year. Gomber's 10.5% swinging-strike rate so far -- including an outing at Coors -- shows a bit of upside if that trend holds.
