3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/18/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Nick Castellanos To Hit a Home Run (+480)
With power up and down the Philadelphia Phillies' lineup, they are always a threat for a few home runs.
A strong 5.07 implied run total against the Washington Nationals is a good indication the Phillies will plate some runners tonight.
We'll start with Nick Castellanos, who has a 96 wRC+, .316 wOBA, .181 ISO, 35.2% hard-contact rate, and 33.2% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Despite some modest numbers overall, Castellano has hit 14 of his 20 home runs in this split, so it's clearly the spot to target him for a home.
Joan Adon is on the mound for the Nationals, and since he's been up and down from the minors over the last few years, we'll look at his career numbers. Adon has allowed a .353 wOBA, .423 SLG, 4.55 xFIP, and 0.81 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. It's not an eye-popping matchup for Castellanos, but his odds are too long considering his success against righties this season.
As usual, I'll add Castellanos To Record an RBI (+120), too.
Nolan Arenado To Record an RBI (+105)
A 5.05 implied run total puts the St. Louis Cardinals near the top of the list for player props tonight.
We like seeing runs scored because that means runners on base and RBIs to knock them in. That's where we start tonight with Nolan Arenado in a rather favorable matchup against Joey Lucchesi. Arenado has been elite for many seasons and continues that this year with a 109 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .222 ISO, 48.8% fly-ball rate, and 36.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
He's been one of the most consistent hitters in the league over the last decade, and there's no signs of him slowing down just yet.
Lucchesi will be on the mound and comes in with just 22.1 innings pitched this season. He didn't pitch in 2022 but only registered 38.1 innings pitched in 2021 and 5.2 innings pitched in 2020. Several injuries have given him a very small sample size over the last few years, so we'll turn to his career numbers.
Since 2018, Lucchesi has allowed a .455 SLG, 4.26 xFIP, .290 BABIP, 1.56 HR/9, 39.7% fly-ball rate, and 40.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. All of this is great to see for Arenado, who should be in a spot to knock in a run tonight.
Yandy Diaz To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)
The Tampa Bay Rays have a great matchup to pile on the runs tonight.
They are on the road to take on the Los Angeles Angels. who will have Tyler Anderson on the mound tonight. This season hasn't been a good one for Anderson, who allows a .346 wOBA, .466 SLG, 5.40 xFIP, .321 BABIP, 1.04 HR/9, 18.8% strikeout rate, and 49.5% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters.
His first season with the Angels hasn't been easy, and it puts opposing hitters in a great spot each and every time he is on the mound.
This leads us to Yandy Diaz, who is crushing lefties with a 160 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .362 BABIP, .220 ISO, and 39.7% hard-contact rate this season.
A 4.71 implied run total is a good indication the Rays are going get plenty of runners on base tonight, and this is a great way to capture that production.
