NBA Betting Guide for Friday 1/6/23: Why the Knicks Should Keep It Close in Toronto
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-188)
Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 (-110)
Before we get too far into this, we have to note that Joel Embiid is out. That doesn't mean an automatic bet for the Chicago Bulls to cover, though.
In four games without Embiid but with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, the 76ers are 3-1 with a point differential of +5.5 and an opponent-adjusted point differential of +7.8. They're also 3-1 against the spread in these games.
Excluding low-leverage possessions, the 76ers have a net rating of +2.9 in games with Harden and Maxey but with Embiid off the floor. They're still a solid team.
The Bulls are a pretty weak road team. They're 7-12 outside Chicago with a point differential of -3.6 and an adjusted point differential of -3.2. Chicago's relevant net rating is just -0.1 (again, compared to a +2.9 for the Sixers before accounting for home/road splits).
numberFire's model gives the 76ers a 79.4% win probability and rates their moneyline as a four-star play. Their spread is a two-star option.
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors
New York Knicks +3.5 (-110)
Under 218.5 (-110)
This game marks the second of the year between Atlantic division foes. In the first game, the Toronto Raptors won 113-106 at Madison Square Garden on December 21st.
However, in that game, the Knicks had an effective field goal percentage of 62.5% -- easily beating the Raptors' 49.5% rate. They also turned it over 12 more times than the Raptors (16 to 4). Both teams are in the top five by turnovers per game given away, so that should probably even out this time around.
These are two of the eight slowest teams in the NBA by pace, and their first meeting was quite methodical. It featured the sixth-fewest possessions of any game so far this season.
A combination of the slow pace and even efficiency projects well enough for the Knicks to cover. They're a good road team (11-8 with the third-best adjusted road point differential).
Toronto, at home, is just 11-9 and has surpassed their own implied team total in only 40.0% of their games.
Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder
Under 231.0 (-110)
A key injury for this game is the status of Bradley Beal. In 13 games with Beal sidelined but with Kristaps Porzingis active, the Washington Wizards are actually still pretty good from a point differential standpoint (+2.9). However, we see a big shift in scoring.
In games with Beal, Washington averages 113.6 points and allows 116.0 (for a total of 229.6 points. In those games without him but with KP, they score 109.2 and allow 106.2 for a total of just 215.4. The over rate in games with Beal is 61.5%. Without him, the over rate is just 30.8%.
For the Oklahoma City Thunder, they're without Jaylin Williams and Aleksej Pokusevski. Without them on the floor (but in games with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey), Oklahoma City has an offensive rating of just 112.6 with a defensive rating of 113.5. Basically league-average rates.
Accounting for Washington's scoring decrease, the under is the more logical play here.
