3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18: Saturday Slate
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Christian Kirk Any Time Touchdown (+210)
Christian Kirk Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Week 18 of the NFL season is here! It's one of the most interesting weeks when it comes to player props, so let's jump in.
There are a number of factors to consider this week, and it starts with overall motivation and what teams are playing for. Teams that are still in the hunt for the playoffs are the spots we want to be focusing on -- since there is no reason for them to be resting their starters. We also want to be considering contract incentives for players who can earn extra money if they reach certain stat thresholds.
We have both of those scenarios when it comes to Christian Kirk this week, making this one of my favorite props of the entire year. The Jacksonville Jaguars are taking on the Tennessee Titans in a game that will decide the AFC South title. Win the game and you go to the playoffs; lose and your season is over. Motivation is at 100% in this game.
Kirk also has a contract incentive to record a total of 80 receptions on the season for a $500K bonus and 1,100 receiving yards for another $500K bonus. Kirk currently has 78 receptions and 1,009 receiving yards, which puts him 2 receptions and 91 yards shy of those incentives.
It just so happens to be an elite matchup for him since the Titans have allowed the third-most (3,042) receiving yards and the second-most (19) touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
Kirk plays a large role in the Jaguars' passing attack with a 22.9% target share, 29.2% air yards share, 9.2 average depth of target (aDOT), and 28.9% red zone target share.
A player with a key offensive role on a team in a must-win situation who also has contract incentives is the perfect storm for a player prop in Week 18.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Next up -- JuJu Smith-Schuster of the Kansas City Chiefs, a team in a similar situation.
The Chiefs have their playoff spot clinched, but with a win against the Las Vegas Raiders, they will secure the top seed in the AFC. Getting that first-round bye is huge, and the Chiefs should have their foot on the gas all day on Saturday.
Per our metrics, the Raiders have the worst pass defense in the league, making this the ideal matchup for Smith-Schuster to rack up some yards. When it comes to his contract incentives, he needs only 2 receiving yards to hit 900 on the year, which would give him an additional $1.5 million dollars. Obviously, that's not a lot, but there's more to the Chiefs than just Smith-Schuster.
Patrick Mahomes needs 430 passing yards to reach the single-season record of 5,477 yards. If Mahomes is going to be pushing for that record -- combined with the fact the Chiefs need to win this game for the number one seed -- Smith-Schuster will likely be racking up the yards.
It helps that Smith-Schuster is a consistent option in KC's passing attack -- amassing a 17.8% target share, 17.9% air yards share, and 7.3 aDOT. Winning the game is the main factor for the Chiefs, and if Mahomes can break a record along the way, the receivers should have huge games against the league's worst pass defense.
