FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 11/7/22
Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, basketball daily fantasy would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?
Well, as a result, NBA daily fantasy is extremely reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate and Key Injuries
With an off day tomorrow for the U.S. Election Day, all 30 NBA teams are in action tonight. As you'd expect, the injury report is a bit noisy.
In Washington, I'd peg Bradley Beal closer to doubtful having entered COVID-19 protocols yesterday. He's opposite a Hornets squad that might add another name to its litany of injuries since Dennis Smith (ankle) is questionable.
The Miami Heat will get back Jimmy Butler tonight, but Tyler Herro (ankle) might be out of the lineup in his place. They're hosting Portland, who are unlikely to have Anfernee Simons (foot) in the lineup. Interestingly, the Blazers have Damian Lillard (calf) listed as questionable today, which sooner than most thought.
There's really not much to say about Luka Doncic ($11,800) other than to play him. In tougher matchups, maybe you'd risk fading him, but Doncic carries a 39.0% usage rate and 1.73 FanDuel points per minute into this date with Brooklyn's 113.6 defensive rating (9th-worst in the NBA).
Even if Trae suits up, Dejounte Murray ($9,000) is flashing in numberFire's projections. He's spiked for more than 57 FanDuel points in back-to-back games with Young, and the 226.0-point total in Atlanta is one of the best on today's slate.
Damian Lillard ($8,500) should have a massive role if he makes a return to a Portland lineup missing Simons. A luxury of this 15-game slate is that Tyrese Haliburton ($8,500) -- also projected well against the Pelicans -- is a quick last-minute substitute if Lillard is ruled out.
Salaries in Toronto are not adjusted for Siakam's injury, so we can ride with Fred VanVleet ($7,200), as well.
In terms of value, Reggie Jackson ($4,500) tops our projections if he can suit up. He'll be in line for a full role with no John Wall. Others behind him include Tre Jones ($5,700), De'Anthony Melton ($5,600), Marcus Smart ($5,300), and Collin Sexton ($5,000). Sexton is particularly of note if veteran Mike Conley ($5,800) rests on the back-to-back.
Once again on Friday, we saw Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600) is fine, but he's not quite as sturdy as Luka for the salary.
Antetokounmpo dropped in "just" 55.3 FanDuel points before resting on Saturday. He's still a solid option in that Atlanta game as he's leading the NBA in FanDuel points per minute (1.82), but I just come back to the additional competition around him that leaves his usage rate (37.2%) slightly behind Luka's.
Especially with uncertainty on the rest of the Clips, Paul George ($9,100) is an option. He's red-hot, scoring at least 28 real-life points in four straight. I prefer him to Kevin Durant ($10,400) -- salary considered -- when looking away from Giannis.
With Zach LaVine ($7,000) likely back, he's popping in numberFire's projections. We'll continue to look at Raptors on the other side, which includes fine salaries on all three of Scottie Barnes ($7,300), OG Anunoby ($6,700), and Gary Trent Jr. ($5,800).
Both Kyle Anderson ($3,600) and Taurean Prince ($3,600) saw upwards of 30 minutes in Gobert's stead for Minnesota on Saturday. Anderson (0.82 FanDuel points per minute this season) has been more productive than Prince and will likely start, but Prince will also be less popular for those two reasons.
Harrison Barnes ($4,600) is a good, old-fashioned value play. He's seen at least 33 minutes in four straight, failing to produce thanks to 36.6% shooting in that time. Others projecting well in numberFire's model include Josh Hart ($5,800), Klay Thompson ($5,500), Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,300), Caleb Martin ($4,200), and Spurs rookie Jeremy Sochan ($4,200).
I've got to lead with Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600). The Gobert-Towns dilemma has been solved -- and not just by Gobert's illness. KAT has posted at least eight boards in five straight, and he's also produced at least 24 real-life points in three of his past four. He's salaried fairly for the way he's begun to assert himself offensively.
On the other side, Julius Randle ($7,200) is just under-salaried for his current production rate (1.05 FanDuel points per minute). That's an easy mini-stack.
Anthony Davis ($10,300) is an interesting pivot off Towns. I almost never project usage increases, but Davis' 23.3% mark the past week is well below both expectations as well as last season's rate (27.0%). His shooting slump is bound to improve, but Utah gives up the most paint points per game (57.8) in the NBA. Easy baskets.
The minute concerns for Domantas Sabonis ($8,500) are no more. He's posted at least 37 in back-to-back games, and -- shocker -- he's posted more than 49 FanDuel points in both.
When looking toward value at the power forward spot, it's hard not to notice PJ Washington ($5,800) on a Charlotte team running out of guys to put the ball in the basket. However, Terry Rozier ($7,900) did return over the weekend.
Christian Koloko ($3,700) saw a season-high 31 minutes on Sunday, but I still believe the long-term production rate of Chris Boucher ($5,300) will win out over time. That's why Boucher's salary got the bump Koloko's didn't.