3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 2/11/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Miles Bridges Under 20.5 Points (-116)
One thing Detroit does well is limit the scoring of small forwards. The Pistons are permitting just 20.5 points per game to the position, the seventh-fewest.
On top of that, Bridges hasn't been scoring as much as usual of late.
Over his last six games, Bridges has netted at least 21 points only twice. He's averaging 16.0 points per night in February, and while small-sample caveats apply, Bridges' usage rate has dropped to 18.9% this month, his lowest single-month usage rate of the campaign.
Our model backs the under, projecting Bridges for only 17.8 points.
Joel Embiid Under 33.5 Points (-112)
It tells you what kind of level Joel Embiid is playing at for his points prop to be at a line of 33.5 points.
Embiid may very well go absolutely bonkers in a cushy matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but taking the under here is in part banking on the Philadelphia 76ers' star to see reduced minutes in a blowout. Philly is a 12.0-point favorite, and this OKC squad has lost three in a row, all by double-digits -- including defeats to the Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors.
But Embiid might have trouble scoring 34-plus points even with his full allotment of minutes. He's posted 27 or fewer points in half of his last six games, and one of the nights with more than 27 was a 34-point night that only narrowly goes over this line.
We project Embiid for 30.1 points in 34.1 minutes.
Nikola Vucevic Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-128)
The Chicago Bulls-Minnesota Timberwolves game is going to be a shootout. The over/under is 240.5 points, and the spread is 3.0. A lot of the prop lines are up a tick or two higher than normal to account for the game environment.
One prop where there's still some value is the over on Nikola Vucevic's made triples. Not only will the extra possessions help Vucevic hit at least two three-pointers, but T-Wolves surrender a three-point attempt rate of 43.4%, the fifth-highest in the league.
While Vucevic is a combined 0 for 3 from deep across his last two games, prior to that run, he'd hit multiple treys in two of his previous three outings.
Our algorithm projects Vucevic to drain 2.4 three-pointers on Friday.