Super Bowl LVI Betting: Correlated Prop Bets to Consider
In betting, the value of an assumption cannot be overstated. That's never more true than it is for the Super Bowl.
Every week, we get the opportunity to make an assumption and lay bets that center around that assumption. Think one wide receiver's role is overrated? That's going to lead to not just unders for him but potentially overs for his fellow pass-catchers.
For Super Bowl LVI between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, we have an overwhelming number of markets we can bet. So, for every assumption you make, you have options for how you can translate that into plus-EV bets.
Obviously, sportsbooks aren't run by dummies, so you're not going to catch them napping if you whip together a same-game parlay around correlated events. The odds will account for how two outcomes obviously tied together interact. But there's still value in taking a stand and probing for ways to exploit it.
Today, we're going to dig into some spots where we may be able to find correlated props for Sunday's game, and then we'll lay out the best way to exploit any inefficiencies.
Cam Akers' Suspect Third-Down Role
Even before Cam Akers left the NFC Conference Championship with a shoulder injury, his role was looking spotty. Sony Michel was coming in on third downs, and the broadcast mentioned that was because the team viewed him as the better pass-blocker. Michel wound up playing 14 of 18 third-down snaps for the game compared to just 3 for Akers.
We can use that to our advantage here.
The key for me, rather than being high on Michel's output, is being low on Akers'. That way, we're getting some additional potential value should Darrell Henderson wind up being active and eating even more into Akers' role.
Here are markets where you could buy into being low on expectations for Akers.
|Rushing Plus Receiving Yards||83.5||-114|
To me, the single-best prop here is the rushing plus receiving yardage under 83.5. That one could hit even if Akers goes over his rushing yardage total of 65.5 if he continues to leave the field on third down.
But if I'm looking to tie it to another, I'd bet both that rushing plus receiving number and Akers' reception total under 2.5. Those are not markets you can tie together in a same-game parlay, but even if you bet them separately, one of them hitting inherently increases the odds the other will hit, as well. I'd also be interested in Michel's reception props once they are posted if you aren't concerned about Henderson potentially playing a role.
The Bengals' Offensive Approach
If you listened to Tony Romo during the AFC Championship Game broadcast, you heard him constantly criticizing the Bengals for being too run-heavy on early downs. And he certainly wasn't wrong; they were being weirdly conservative, and it was hurting the team.
But they haven't always played things that way. If you get a read on how they'll attack the Rams, it could lead to lots of value.
One way to gauge this is by looking at a team's pass rate on early downs in the first half. This is where play-calling is less dictated by the situation and the team can do what they game-planned around. Here's how the Bengals have played things there in their past five games with Burrow (so not counting Week 18).
|Week||Early-Down, First-Half Pass Rate|
Their full-season mark here is 59.0%. They're at 66.2% in this five-game sample, so on the whole, the team has been more aggressive recently than they were earlier in the year. That's true even when you include last week's blip.
Pass-to-run ratio impacts almost every market, so if our read on what the Bengals do differs from that of the sportsbook's, we might be able to find some value.
There are countless markets we could turn to here. From a single bet perspective, my preference would be the Burrow pass attempt number over 36.5 at -106. He has gone over that in four of these five games, so in a vacuum, I'll happily take that number.
This is also a spot, though, where we can dip our toes in the same-game-parlay water. The attempt prop is unavailable there, but we can start with Burrow over 276.5 passing yards (-110) as the building block.
From there, you can just pick and choose your favorite yardage numbers. Right now, numberFire's projections are showing the most value on Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd to go over their yardage props (78.5 and 39.5, respectively). If you were to parlay all of those together, it comes out to +339 as a same-game parlay.
The implied odds there are 22.8%. The implied odds of all three hitting if they were independent of each other would be 14.6%, so clearly FanDuel knows that these events are related. As a result. I'm not opposed to just betting all three independently and taking the lower payout if all three cash.
Another angle here would be to bet on points early. A pass-heavy gameplan can either move the ball in chunks or keep the clock frozen on incompletions. Both of those are good if you expect the scoreboard to light up.
That brings us to the first-quarter total, which is currently at 9.5 with the over at even money. If you same-game parlay that with Burrow's passing yardage over 276.5, it comes out to +193. Once again, we're getting a gap between the implied odds of the bets independently and when they're parlayed, so FanDuel is accounting for the relationship between the two.
Either way, this is just another market to consider that has ties to how the Bengals may play things. You can lump it into a same-game parlay with other pass-heavy props or bet it independently if you think they'll attack through the air again. The reverse mindset would also apply here if you get the sense the Bengals will revert back to their more run-centric approach.