NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Friday 2/11/22: 3 Underdogs That Can Cover

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers

The timing is good for the Philadelphia 76ers. They have a very promising matchup for tonight while being depleted after a blockbuster deal for James Harden.

Without Seth Curry and Andre Drummond but with Joel Embiid playing in the game, the 76ers have a medium-to-very-high-leverage net rating of +13.4. That'll work against the 17-37 Oklahoma City Thunder.

numberFire's model views the 76ers as 84.6% likely to win, so it's not a matter of who gets the victory but rather who will cover the 13.0-point spread (which opened at 13.0, trended down briefly to 12.5, and returned to 13.0).

The algorithm here thinks it's going to be the Thunder who cover. They're 56.0% likely to do so, leading to a nice return of 6.9%.

Despite a 9.7% win rate since 2016, 13-point road underdogs have a 57.7% cover rate.

The Thunder are second in cover rate this season (65.4%), as well.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers

The new-look Indiana Pacers host the Cleveland Cavaliers, who made a deal together this week.

The Cavs received Caris LeVert and a second-rounder; the Pacers got Ricky Rubio's contract and three picks.

Cleveland is a +5.7 with LeVert so far with a strong shot quality rating of 55.0% across 26 minutes -- a promising start for him.

Without LeVert and Domantas Sabonis in high-leverage situations, the Pacers have a -8.3 net rating.

That helps explain why the spread has extended from 5.5 to 6.5 in favor of Cleveland since the open, but is it too much?

Yes, most likely.

numberFire's model still likes the Pacers to cover and suggests a two-unit wager on the proposition.

My model also thinks the Pacers are the better spread bet, even with the -8.3 net rating inputs.

San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks

A third underdog is in order for this game, and that's the San Antonio Spurs, who are getting 8.0 points against the Atlanta Hawks.

San Antonio had some trade deadline activity of their own -- same as the Hawks -- so we have to make some adjustments.

Doing so shows value on the Spurs, who have covered in 53.8% of road games this season.

numberFire's model likes the Spurs to cover with a 60.2% probability (with an expected return of 15.0%). That's a two-unit suggestion.

My model views the spread as 5.0, which leaves plenty of room to like the Spurs +8.0.

There's also a lean on the Spurs to win outright at a +295 moneyline, though the spread is the better bet.