FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 6/16/23

With just one early game off the main slate, we've got a whopping 14-game offering on FanDuel tonight. This one tends to lean on the pitching side, as just three teams have implied totals above five runs. There are a handful of spots that could be affected by weather, with the Marlins-Nationals and Cardinals-Mets games having some delay potential.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Joe Ryan ($11,400) may have a slate-high salary, but he's looking like our best blend of talent and matchup on Friday night.

It's been a while since Ryan popped for a big fantasy score, but he hasn't had the most forgiving schedule, and Detroit is the type of opponent he should steamroll. Over his 13 starts, Ryan has logged 10 quality starts with a 3.49 SIERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 4.9% walk rate. He's reached 10 strikeouts three times, and that's the kind of output we're hoping for tonight.

Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers' active roster comes in with a 78 wRC+, .121 ISO, and 24.4% strikeout rate. Detroit's 3.21 implied team total is the slate's worst mark.

Kevin Gausman ($11,200) is in a much more difficult matchup versus the Rangers, but he's been lights out in the vast majority of his starts, holding opponents to two earned runs or fewer across 10 of 14 starts. Overall, he's sporting a stellar 2.93 SIERA, 33.2% strikeout rate, and 6.3% walk rate, and he's exceeded 100 pitches in each of his last six starts. He's scored over 40 FanDuel points in 10 outings, and 4 of those have gone for 60-plus.

Texas has been a lethal offense in 2023, so their modest 4.21 implied team total speaks to Gausman's reputation. Despite all his success, it's worth noting that Gausman's been knocked around for six-plus earned runs three times, including his most recent start, so we can't rule that out against a tough opponent. But his ceiling might be higher than anyone else on the board, which is why he's arguably the next-best choice behind Ryan.

The guy who's the bigger boom-or-bust pick might be Michael Kopech ($9,800), who's really turned his season around and has an upside-enhancing matchup versus Seattle.

For roughly the first month and a half of the season, Kopech was a disaster and someone we were far more likely to attack with opposing batters than consider starting. But over his last five starts, something has finally clicked, as he's recorded nine or more punchouts four times while walking just five total batters. Over this span, he's put up an elite 2.90 xFIP, 37.6% strikeout rate, and 4.3% walk rate.

It's obviously a big ask to expect him to keep up this recent hot stretch, but even if he can maintain his season-long 27.5% strikeout rate and keep the walks in check, he should have a strong second half to the season.

As for the Mariners, they're a middle-of-the-pack offense against righties but also strike out at a 24.7% clip. At a favorable salary, Kopech feels like an ideal candidate to roll with in tournaments.

Shane McClanahan ($11,000) and Zac Gallen ($10,800) aren't priorities at their respective salaries, but they deserve to be in the mix, too. While I doubt we see a ceiling game from McClanahan against the Padres, he continues to churn out quality starts on a regular basis and has gone seven innings in three of his last five appearances. Likewise, a low-strikeout matchup against Cleveland could hinder Gallen's upside, but we could also see him log six-to-seven scoreless frames.

For some value, this isn't a bad spot to buy low on Sandy Alcantara ($8,800). His numbers are down across the board, but he's still piling up the innings, and going seven-plus against Washington is definitely possible. Although the Nats' active roster has a league-low 19.0% strikeout rate versus righties, they also pack zero punch with an 84 wRC+ and .124 ISO. Given his meh 20.6% strikeout rate, we'll probably need something close to a complete-game shutout from Alcantara for him to contend in tournaments -- but that's in his range of outcomes.

If we want to get a little weird, Bryan Woo ($6,500) has the second-lowest pitching salary on the entire slate, yet he's flashed a 33.3% strikeout rate and 30.5% called-plus-swinging-strike rate over his first two MLB starts. Considering Woo had a 34.3% strikeout rate in Double-A, it's entirely possible he can maintain an above-average K rate in the big leagues. Woo went just 81 pitches in his second start, and he'll probably be on a tight leash going forward, but this isn't a bad night to roll the dice versus a below-average White Sox team with a 3.59 implied team total.

Hitting Breakdown

Like yesterday, the Atlanta Braves have the slate's highest implied team total again, and tonight's mark (6.23) is over a full run higher than any other team.

Maybe Dinelson Lamet deserves better than his 10.38 ERA, but it's not like his underlying numbers are any good, either. He's put up a 4.98 SIERA, 22.8% strikeout rate, and 14.9% walk rate, struggling as both a starter and a reliever in 21 2/3 innings this year for Colorado.

In a limited sample, Lamet's issues have primarily come from left-handed batters. He's showing a poor 5.68 xFIP in the split and all three home runs he's allowed have come off lefty sticks. This bumps up Matt Olson ($3,800) as one of the top hitters of the slate, and Eddie Rosario ($2,700), Ozzie Albies ($3,100), and Michael Harris II ($2,700) have increased appeal as lower-salaried plays. Otherwise, load up on the usual righties, beginning with Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,600) whenever you can fit him in.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are high on the list again, as well, getting what should be a bullpen game from the Giants. John Brebbia will be the opener, and then we'll likely see lefty Sean Manaea at some point after to pitch the bulk of the game.

While Manaea has found some success in this role and remains tough on left-handed bats, he has a less imposing profile against righties, owning a 4.45 xFIP, 25.9% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, and 30.3% ground-ball rate. Seven of his eight home runs allowed have come off righty sticks (1.97 per 9 innings). Mookie Betts ($4,300), Will Smith ($3,800), and J.D. Martinez ($4,000) are the big three righties, and then Miguel Vargas ($2,800) and Chris Taylor ($2,700) can offer up some salary relief.

The Toronto Blue Jays' righty-heavy lineup should be able to make quick work of left-hander Martin Perez, who was churning out solid results in April but has since seen his numbers take a turn for the worse. He's now sitting on a 5.00 SIERA and 16.1% strikeout rate for the season, and he's been shelled in two of the last three starts.

We're getting pretty reasonable salaries from the four bats up top through George Springer ($3,100), Bo Bichette ($3,500), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,300), and Matt Chapman ($3,100), and all the batters projected to bat behind them are at $3,000 and below, with Danny Jansen ($2,800) probably being the best of the rest.

The Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, and Houston Astros are other potential standouts. Right-hander Brady Singer is a low strikeout pitcher and has a 5.20 xFIP versus lefties, so if nothing else, Shohei Ohtani ($4,300) is a fantastic one-off. Similarly, Domingo German has a worse strikeout rate (23.1%) and walk rate (9.8%) against lefties and is also allowing more fly balls (45.3%); the majority of Boston's top hitters bat left-handed. Prospect Andrew Abbott is a wild card against the Astros; he hasn't allowed a run in two starts but is also showing a suspect 21.3% strikeout rate and 14.9% walk rate.