NFL Betting Guide: Week 15

Do you think you know a lot about NFL football? Try regularly picking five games against the spread.

Even with all the information, advanced stats, and people attempting, elite sports bettors are lucky to get about 53% to 54% of -110 (even probability) bets correctly. It's essentially flipping a coin.

That being said, people try. Myself included. There are plenty of contests, media personalities, and other casual games at work or with friends that pick five games against the spread to see how they fare.

Here are my five picks against the spread this week. Play or fade as you please.

Week 13 Recap

Last Week: 1-4
Year-To-Date: 39-30-1 (56.5%)

Regression is causing immeasurable amounts of pain.

Our lone winner last week was a game where, realistically, we had the right side. The 49ers had a double-digit lead for a good chunk of the game before the Bengals forced OT. Thank God for Brandon Aiyuk.

In the losers column, Taysom Hill ran wild on my underdog Jets, the Giants couldn't overcome a slow start to backdoor cover in Los Angeles, the Raiders turned the ball over like Rich Bisaccia has a bonus tied to it, and the Cardinals were simply just outplayed at home by the Rams.

Onto a Week 15 plagued by injuries and COVID-19 protocols! Everyone's favorite!

Pick #1: Cardinals (-12.5) at Lions

I don't know how the Lions will score points on Sunday.

Detroit's offense was already poor, and they're now without T.J. Hockenson for the year, and D'Andre Swift remains sidelined -- presumably for the rest of a lost season. Now an angry, disappointed Cardinals team awaits.

Despite the loss to a fine Rams team on Monday night, the Cards are still numberFire's third-best defense in our power rankings. They're notably third against the pass specifically, and Detroit has a 59% situation-neutral pass rate the past three weeks. They've really heightened their reliance on Jared Goff without Swift.

On defense, the Lions are the third-worst team against the pass in general and second-worst against passes 15-plus yards downfield. Enter Kyler Murray and his 8.2-yard average depth of target (aDoT).

This is a huge number to lay to a road team, but the Cardinals are 7-0 against the spread (ATS) this year away from home. The pick is Arizona's defense does most of the heavy lifting in a game that's decently separated by halftime.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Cardinals 31-6

Pick #2: Patriots (+2.5) at Colts

We can set COVID and injury issues aside to just examine this good ol' fashioned stumper of a line.

The Patriots are red hot; they've won and covered seven games in a row ATS. Yet, here they sit as 2.5-point road underdogs in their Saturday night game with the Colts. A whopping 93% of the handle at FanDuel Sportsbook is on Indianapolis, and so are 84% of the tickets. I'll fade the public.

My hypothesis is this is predicated on Mac Jones in a hostile, road environment. It's worth noting, though, New England covered in both primetime road games with Atlanta and Buffalo. When looking at the matchups, the Pats are numberFire's fourth-best rushing defense, so they should be able to somewhat contain Jonathan Taylor. That would force Carson Wentz to best New England's fourth-ranked pass defense.

The Patriots bludgeoned Cleveland without Damien Harris, so there should still be optimism Rhamondre Stevenson can fill in admirably. New England will likely need to lean on Jones and their passing game anyway; the Colts are roughly mid-pack in most metrics, but they're just 19th against the pass per numberFire's schedule-adjusted numbers.

Getting points with the better coach, the better defense, and a solid path to victory feel like the play -- even when I'm skeptical about Mac Jones long-term.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Patriots 22-17

Pick #3: Steelers (+1) vs. Titans

In what is essentially a pick'em, the team with more to play for is never a bad start.

The Pittsburgh Steelers also just match up well with the Titans. With just a 42.5-point total, points won't be incredibly easy to come by, and they haven't for Tennessee regardless. Since losing Derrick Henry, the Titans are averaging exactly 0.00 Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. They've averaged just 19.4 points per game in this span.

Pittsburgh's offense is slowly improving. In that same span, the Steelers are 15th in the league in NEP per play, and they've averaged 23.75 points per game in games started by Ben Roethlisberger. That includes a total clunker against the Bengals.

In a tight game of top-10 defenses, mistakes from pressure generated by a pass rush could be the difference. Pittsburgh gets a 34% pressure rate as a defense, and the Titans' offensive line is allowing a 28% rate (sixth-worst in the league) themselves. The Titans, defensively, generate only a 33% pressure rate, but notably, the young Steelers' offensive line has just a 23% pressure allowed rate (tied for fifth-best in the NFL).

The pick is T.J. Watt forces a costly turnover at some point, and the Steelers win an ugly, close game.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Steelers 19-13

Pick #4: Packers (-6.5) at Ravens

This number just sneaking inside a touchdown is a worthwhile spot.

On a horrible board week, it's easy to ride with the Green Bay Packers. The Packers boast the 5th-best offense and the 10th-best defense in the league, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. That's a good formula to being 11-1 ATS this season.

Aaron Rodgers' bizarre toe injury is concerning, but he's comfortably the second-most injured signal-caller in this one. Lamar Jackson is a game-time call at best with his sprained ankle from last week, and that could thrust Tyler Huntley into action. Last week's comeback aside, Huntley is averaging a poor -0.08 Passing NEP per drop back this season.

As long as Rodgers is as fine -- as he states -- he and Davante Adams should be able to carry the Packers to a sizable win over a hobbled Lamar or backup quarterback. The Ravens are the 11th-worst passing defense in the league by our metrics.

Green Bay had a 65% pass rate this season in their one game without Aaron Jones, and Jones is looking shaky for Sunday. That was in a neutral game script against Minnesota, and it is much higher than their 58% rate in all situations. Hopefully that personnel loss leads Rodgers, LaFleur, and company to exploit their best path to victory in this one.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Packers 24-14

Pick #5: Bills (-11.5) vs. Panthers

I'll be honest, this might be my least favorite spread pick all season.

It's a weird number for a Bills team with some flaws, but this is generally a team that profiles to do well in this spot. Even with last week's wonky game in Tampa Bay, Buffalo is still one of the best teams in football by our power rankings. They're 12th in total offense, and more importantly, they're still 1st in overall schedule-adjusted defense.

The Panthers have been a nightmare recently, and it doesn't appear to be ending soon. They're rotating quarterbacks Cam Newton and P.J. Walker, their offensive line is allowing a 29% pressure rate overall (fourth-worst in the NFL), and their most dynamic offensive player, D.J. Moore, is dealing with a hamstring issue.

Their warts aside, Buffalo is at least a very good defense. Carolina's offense has been the third-worst in football the past five weeks in terms of NEP per play (-0.18), and they're the worst playing this weekend other than Jacksonville.

This pick is very similar to the Arizona one, but I have less confidence in the Bills' offense to score points on numberFire's sixth-ranked overall defense. We'll still eat the points considering the Panthers' offensive woes.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Bills 23-9