NFL Draft Betting: How Many Pac-12 Players Will Be Drafted in Round 1?
The draft is only a handful of days away. Does that mean you should stop trying to find prop bets with value potential? Heck no. Draft week is the best time to take advantage of lines that are deflated or inflated due to rumors.
With this piece, I'll be wrapping up the Conference-prop series with the Pac-12 -- you can also read my picks for the SEC, Big 12, and Big 10.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set the over/under for Pac-12 players in round one at 2.5, with the over listed at +144. The under is priced at -182 -- resulting in 64.6 percent implied odds.
In order to figure out how to play this, let's look at current projections and the players in question.
The Projections
Here's a look at how 30 of the most accurate mock drafters, respected analysts, and myself have this bet going.
| Expert | THR 5-Year Accuracy | FantasyPros 2019 Accuracy | Pac-12 Players in the First |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hanson | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Ben Standig | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Forrest Long | 3 | 2 | |
| Ryan McCrystal | 5 | 39 | 4 |
| Evan Silva | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Matthew Jones | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Joe Marino | 11 | 85 | 2 |
| Charlie Campbell | 1 | 2 | |
| Walter Cherepinsky | 2 | 2 | |
| Michael Schwartz | 5 | 2 | |
| Scott Smith | 9 | 1 | |
| Peter Schrager | 11 | 2 | |
| Dane Brugler | 13 | 3 | |
| Daniel Jeremiah | 14 | 4 | |
| Chris Trapasso | 15 | 1 | |
| Todd McShay | 16 | 2 | |
| Ken Zalis | 18 | 1 | |
| Matt Miller | 20 | 3 | |
| Luke Easterling | 21 | 2 | |
| Elisha Twerski (ME!) | 27 | 3 | |
| Trevor Sikkema | 44 | 1 | |
| Benjamin Solak | 49 | 2 | |
| Mel Kiper | 52 | 3 | |
| Charles Davis | 58 | 4 | |
| Kyle Crabbs | 59 | 2 | |
| Will Brinson | 77 | 5 | |
| Pete Prisco | 118 | 3 | |
| John McClain | 122 | 3 | |
| Peter King | 3 | ||
| Chad Reuter | 3 |
The results are nearly split down the middle -- with 14 projecting three or more Pac-12 players, while the remaining 16 are mocking two or less.
With just one Pac-12 player -- Oregon's Justin Herbert -- being a day one lock, it's easy to see why the experts are so divided. Let's look at the players in order to get a better idea of how this might go.
The Players
As I mentioned, Herbert is the only player that's a round-one lock.
USC's Austin Jackson has 52.8 percent implied odds to be gone by the 26th pick, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Only a handful of mocks have him dropping out of the first entirely.
After Herbert and Jackson, the next likeliest Pac-12 players to hear their name called on day one are Arizona State's Brandon Aiyuk, Utah's Jaylon Johnson, and Colorado's Laviska Shenault Jr. Aiyuk and Johnson have been popular round-one picks in mocks over the last month or so. For what it's worth, Aiyuk is the fifth-ranked receiver on my board.
ProFootballTalk's Peter King -- who is one of the more plugged-in and respected writers in sports media -- had USC's Michael Pittman Jr. going to the Green Bay Packers with the 30th pick.
The Pick
When I wrote my mock two weeks ago, the over on this play was priced at +192 -- it's +144 now. That's some serious line movement.
I loved the over at +192, but it's not nearly as titillating now. Nevertheless, it is still my preferred play.
The under -- priced at -182 -- comes with implied odds of 64.6 percent. That feels too high for a play that's probably closer to 55/45. The over, despite the movement, still has implied odds under 45 percent. With so many different Pac-12 players being round one possibilities, I like those odds.
