NFL Draft Betting: How Many Big Ten Players Will Be Drafted in Round 1?
The quarantine Super Bowl -- A.K.A. the 2020 NFL Draft -- is less than a week away. Does that mean you should stop trying to find prop bets with value potential? Heck no. Rumor week is the best time to take advantage of deflated or inflated lines.
With this piece, I'll be continuing the Conference-prop series with the Big Ten -- you can read my pick for the SEC as well as the Big 12.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set the over/under for Big Ten players in round one at 5.5, with the under listed at +106. The over is priced at -134 -- resulting in implied odds of 57.3 percent.
In order to figure out how to play this, let's look at current projections and the players in question.
The Projections
Here's a look at how 30 of the most accurate mock drafters, respected analysts, and myself have this bet going.
| Expert | THR 5-Year Accuracy | FantasyPros 2019 Accuracy | Big Ten Players in the First |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hanson | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Ben Standig | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Forrest Long | 3 | 5 | |
| Ryan McCrystal | 5 | 39 | 6 |
| Evan Silva | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| Matthew Jones | 7 | 34 | 5 |
| Joe Marino | 11 | 85 | 6 |
| Charlie Campbell | 1 | 5 | |
| Walter Cherepinsky | 2 | 8 | |
| Michael Schwartz | 5 | 6 | |
| Scott Smith | 9 | 6 | |
| Peter Schrager | 11 | 6 | |
| Dane Brugler | 13 | 8 | |
| Daniel Jeremiah | 14 | 7 | |
| Chris Trapasso | 15 | 7 | |
| Todd McShay | 16 | 6 | |
| Ken Zalis | 18 | 7 | |
| Matt Miller | 20 | 6 | |
| Luke Easterling | 21 | 6 | |
| Elisha Twerski (ME!) | 27 | 4 | |
| Trevor Sikkema | 44 | 6 | |
| Benjamin Solak | 49 | 5 | |
| Mel Kiper | 52 | 7 | |
| Charles Davis | 58 | 5 | |
| Kyle Crabbs | 59 | 6 | |
| Will Brinson | 77 | 4 | |
| Pete Prisco | 118 | 6 | |
| John McClain | 122 | 6 | |
| Chad Reuter | 5 | ||
| Justin Reid | 6 |
20 of the 30 analysts have at least six Big Ten players going on day one -- resulting in the over.
A quick glance at the prospects reveals why the over is such a common pick.
The Players
Ohio State's Chase Young and Jeff Okudah, as well as Iowa's Tristan Wirfs, are locks to go in round one. Throw away the key -- it's happening.
We're already halfway to the over, and the top 10 hasn't even wrapped up yet.
Iowa's A.J. Epenesa has 69.3 percent implied odds of being selected in the first, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Penn State's Yetur Gross-Matos has 60 percent implied odds of going 27th or earlier. Michigan's Cesar Ruiz is a first-rounder in nearly every mock across the board.
If any of those three slide out of the first, you still have Wisconsin's Zack Baun and Minnesota's Antoine Winfield Jr. as realistic round-one possibilities.
The Badgers' Jonathan Taylor and the Buckeyes' Damon Arnette have also jumped into the first in some mocks.
The Pick
My mock had neither of Epenesa or Gross-Matos going on day one. That said, given the scarcity of edge rushers in this draft, the chances of both dropping to Day two are negligible.
Even if one does drop out -- and I like the +166 odds of Epenesa not going in round one -- Baun is likely the next best option on the edge. He could very well hear his name called on Thursday.
I am tantalized by the idea of hedging the over with the +166 odds of Epenesa not going on day one. If the over doesn't hit, chances are that Epenesa -- and his 5.04 40-yard dash -- was part of the reason why. And like I just outlined, there is a chance of the over hitting even without him going in round one.
