NFL Draft Betting: How Many SEC Players Will Be Drafted in Round 1?
If we were to compare college football to the NBA, the SEC would be the West, and every other conference combined would be the East. Never has there been a better example of that than the 2020 NFL Draft.
Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, the SEC is +108 to have more first-round picks than "The Field" -- let that sink in for a second. They're given 48.1 percent implied odds of churning out more than half of 2020's first round.
In order for that bet to hit, you'd need 17 SEC players drafted on day one. 16 would result in a void bet. But wait, there's more! You can also wager on the over/under of SEC players in round one, currently sitting at 15.5. The value isn't quite as good here, with both sitting at -112.
With all that in mind, how should you bet it?
Here's a look at how 21 of the most accurate mock drafters, respected analysts, and yours truly have this bet going.
|Expert||THR 5-Year Accuracy||SEC Players|
|Elisha Twerski (ME!)||16|
As you can see, only two experts -- The Athletic's Ben Standig and WalterFootball's Charlie Campbell -- have the SEC producing more picks than the field. As for the projected total, 10 have the under hitting, while 11 are projecting more than 15.
Here's are the SEC players that are virtual locks to go in round one: LSU's Joe Burrow, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa, Jedrick Wills Jr., Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs III, Auburn's Derrick Brown, South Carolina's Javon Kinlaw, Florida's C.J. Henderson, and Georgia's Andrew Thomas. That's nine right off the bat.
These players are safe bets to hear their name called on day one: LSU's Justin Jefferson, Kristian Fulton, and K'Lavon Chaisson, as well as 'Bama's Trevon Diggs and Xavier McKinney. Georgia's D'Andre Swift is also a popular first-round projection. That's 15 if none of them slide.
Two more LSU players that are often projected in the first are Patrick Queen and Grant Delpit. Auburn's Marlon Davidson and Noah Igbinoghene, Missouri's Jordan Elliott, and the Tide's Terrell Lewis and Raekwon Davis all appear in the first in some mocks. And then there was this bomb dropped by NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah on Tuesday.
I talked to 2 GMs in last 24 hours and both believe UGA OT Isaiah Wilson will go in the 1st round. That’s too rich for me but it looks like it’s going to happen. Betting on the upside.
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) April 6, 2020
Standing at 6'7" and weighing in at 350 pounds, Georgia's Wilson is an absolute mammoth of a man -- who also happens to be in the 94th percentile in terms of length at the position. With the way bookends are valued in the draft, it would not surprise me one bit if Jeremiah's prediction comes true.
All in all, the path to 16 SEC players is easily perceived -- the path to 17 is far from delusory as well.
The bet that I feel really comfortable with is the over on 15.5 -- the -112 odds are not a deterrent.
As for 'SEC versus The Field,' if I had to bet that I'd go for the SEC (+108). I can't get around to the -136 odds for the field.