NFL Draft Betting: Elisha Twerski's Prop-Based Mock Draft

The only thing more common than mock drafts these days are Tiger King memes. Seriously, stop. We've all seen them already.

I'd like to join in on the fun.

No, I'm not sharing a Tiger King meme. I'm providing you with yet another mock draft.

However, in an effort to give you a unique read, this mock will be built on the many, many, many, many different prop bets available at FanDuel Sportsbook. In fact, as of my writing this piece, there are more than 130 different props available. I will try to touch on each relevant bet as I go through the picks.

For each pick, I will include my prediction, as well as the most mocked positions and players from 20 of the most accurate mock drafters and experts.

Here goes nothing.

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

Most mocked position(s): QB (100%).
Most mocked player(s): Joe Burrow (100%).
Defense or offense: Offense (-3500).

There's no need to spend much time on this pick. Burrow is -7000 to be the first overall pick, and the Cincinnati Bengals are -3500 to select an offensive player with their first pick.

Those are locks as far as I'm concerned.

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

Most mocked positions: DE (85.7%), trade down (9.5%).
Most mocked player(s): Chase Young (85.7%).
Defense or offense: Defense (-550).

If this draft didn't have Joe Burrow, I'd have bet good money that Ohio State's Chase Young would've been the top pick. But, alas, Washington is in an enviable position.

Washington's odds of being the team to draft Young have shrunk from -430 to -340. I definitely prefer that over the -380 odds that Young will be the second pick.

3. Detroit Lions: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State

Most mocked positions: CB (62%), DL/LB (21%), trade down (17%).
Most mocked players: Jeff Okudah (62%), Isaiah Simmons (10%), Chase Young (7%).
Defense or offense: Defense (-550).

Okudah to the Detroit Lions is a pick that appears quite often in mock drafts, but that doesn't mean there's no value to be had. Ohio State's star corner has +185 odds of being the third overall pick. And the under on his draft position of 4.5 comes in at +108. Oh, and there's this.

Since I wrote that piece, the odds of Burrow / Young / Okudah being the exact order of the first three picks have moved from +170 to +220. I'm titillated.

Given all the recent reports that the Miami Dolphins might prefer Oregon's Justin Herbert to Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa, the need for either Miami or the Los Angeles Chargers to trade up might be eroding. If the reports are true, it could be plausible for the Chargers to stay put and still get Tua. In my mind, that makes this combination a more intriguing wager.

Okudah going before the fifth pick is currently listed at +108 -- count me in.

4. New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson

Most mocked positions: LB (45%), OT (45%), DL (10%).
Most mocked players: Isaiah Simmons (45%), Tristan Wirfs (25%), Jedrick Wills Jr. (15%).
Defense or offense: Defense (+120).

I wrote extensively about Isaiah Simmons' draft position over/under of 6.5, and the more I evaluate Clemson's do-it-all linebacker, the more I prefer the under (-126).

Like many others, I believe that the New York Giants need to prioritize the offensive line above all else. However, my gut can't get past Dave Gettleman's tendencies. Gettleman's had nine first-round picks as a general manager, and not a single one has been used on the offensive front. Remember, this is a GM who has taken two running backs inside the top 10 since 2017.

Simmons is +145 to be the Giants pick here, which is -- not coincidentally -- equal to the team's odds of taking a linebacker with this pick. The 21-year-old's -4500 odds of being the first 'backer taken is all but certain to hit.

5. Miami Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Most mocked positions: QB (95%), OL (5%).
Most mocked players: Tua Tagovailoa (70%), Justin Herbert (25%).
Offense or defense: Offense (-1000).

The Miami Dolphins have been linked to Tua in mock drafts for months now, but some recent reports have indicated that that marriage is far from a lock. Here's what ESPN insider Adam Schefter had to say about it.

If the Dolphins do elect to go with Herbert, that could lead to some valuable wagers. The under on Herbert's draft position of 5.5 currently has a line of +180. I prefer that to the +125 line of Miami being the team to draft the Oregon signal-caller.

You can currently get +250 odds that Herbert will go ahead of Tua and +180 odds that he will go inside the top five. Count me in.

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

Most mocked positions: QB (85%), OL (10%).
Most mocked players: Justin Herbert (55%), Tua Tagovailoa (25%).
Offense of defense: Offense (-700)

The domino effect of the Dolphins taking Herbert would be an interesting one from a betting perspective. Tua Tagovailoa ending up on the Los Angeles Chargers is currently priced at +195. Hard not to like that.

FanDuel has Tua's draft position over/under at 2.5, with the over coming in at -430. Despite my pick, I still prefer the under (+300). In the event of a trade down, I think Washington is the most likely candidate -- three of the last four trade-ups in the top-three for a quarterback have been for the second pick.

7. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

Most mocked positions: DT (50%), LB (35%), CB (10%).
Most mocked players: Derrick Brown (50%), Isaiah Simmons (30%), Jeff Okudah (10%).
Offense or defense: Defense (-280).

Brown doesn't get much hype, but he's a damn good player. He's already an elite run stuffer, but he can also disrupt the pocket. Just look at this clip.

No big deal. He's just repeatedly collapsing the pocket against the nation's best team.

The Carolina Panthers are no strangers to spending significant resources on interior defensive lineman. They've dished out capital and draft picks to Kawann Short, Star Lotulelei, Gerald McCoy, and Dontari Poe in recent years. Brown would bring some stabilization to the defense that allowed the most yards per carry and 31 rushing touchdowns in 2019.

Brown's over/under is 8.5 -- with the under coming in at -108. I like the value there.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

Most mocked positions: OT (85%), DL/LB (10%).
Most mocked players: Tristan Wirfs (45%), Jedrick Wills Jr. (30%).
Offense or defense: Offense (-310).

Our senior analyst, Jim Sannes, wrote about why you should bet on Wirfs to be the first offensive lineman taken. At the time, Wirfs' odds were +160 -- they're now +120. Thanks for ruining it for all of us, Jim.

Despite the shrunken odds, I'd still bet on Wirfs -- he's the first tackle off the board in more than half of the mocks I looked at. That said, if you're looking for more potential value, consider Alabama's Wills (+290) -- he's the first lineman drafted in 30 percent of those mocks.

Wirfs' draft position of 8.5 hits the under here, which came in priced at -152. The value isn't great, but if I'm going to bet that, it will, without a doubt, be on the under.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

Most mocked positions: DT (55%), CB (15%), OT (15%), QB (10%).
Most mocked players: Javon Kinlaw (35%), Derrick Brown (20%), C.J. Henderson (10%), Justin Herbert (10%), Mekhi Becton (10%).
Offense or defense: Defense (-138).

For me, this pick came down to Kinlaw and Florida's C.J. Henderson.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were the second-worst run defense in the league last year, and they've since lost Marcell Dareus, Calais Campbell, and, possibly, Yannick Ngakoue. Unlike corner, which has plenty of depth, the draft is not loaded on interior defensive line talent. There's Kinlaw and Derrick Brown, followed by a sizable drop to TCU's Ross Blacklock -- who's a fringe first-round talent in my eyes. Jacksonville should be able to find a quality corner at 20 or 42.

Kinlaw's over/under is currently sitting at 13.5, with the under offered at even odds. I much prefer it to the over.

10. Cleveland Browns: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama

Most mocked positions: OT (80%), LB (15%).
Most mocked players: Mekhi Becton (25%), Andrew Thomas (25%), Jedrick Wills (20%), Isaiah Simmons (15%).
Offense or defense: Offense (-430).

While the question of which one it'll be is a difficult one to answer, the Cleveland Browns are widely expected to take an offensive tackle with their first pick -- which makes a ton of sense.

Cleveland came into the offseason needing two starting tackles. They took care of the right side by signing Jack Conklin. Now they need to address the left side.

Wills is -148 to go over his projected draft position of 8.5. If the Giants draft a bookend at four, I'd bet on the 20-year-old hitting the under (+116). That said, if the draft plays out like this, I think the over will hit.

11. New York Jets: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

Most mocked positions: OT (50%), WR (45%).
Most mocked players: Henry Ruggs III (20%), Jerry Jeudy (20%), Mekhi Becton (20%), Tristan Wirfs (15%), Jedrick Wills Jr. (10%),
Offense or defense: Offense (-380).

Predicting what the New York Jets will do can be a tougher task than most teams since they haven't exactly been associated with savvy decision-making abilities. However, they do have a general manager making his first draft in Joe Douglas.

Douglas spent the previous four drafts as VP of Player Personnel for the Philadelphia Eagles. In those four years, the earliest Philly took a wideout was the 57th pick. In a draft with this kind of depth at receiver, it would make sense for Douglas to prioritize fixing his offensive front -- especially given the way the talent is lined up at tackle.

In Douglas' final draft with the Eagles, Philadelphia selected tackle Andre Dillard -- a workout warrior from Washington State. While it's hardly a trend, it would not surprise me if Douglas elected to go with Louisville's Mekhi Becton, who -- despite weighing in at 364 pounds -- was in the 97th percentile in speed score, according to PlayerProfiler.

This is where it starts to get fun. At FanDuel, the odds of Becton being the Jets first pick are 7/1.

The odds of New York going the offensive line route is lower than any other position -- coming in at +110. Becton's draft position over/under of 8.5 hits the over here (-142).

12. Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

Most mocked positions: WR (90%), CB (10%).
Most mocked players: Jerry Jeudy (45%), CeeDee Lamb (35%), Henry Ruggs III (10%), C.J. Henderson (10%).
Offense or defense: Offense (-215).

Per's Next Gen Stats, Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr ranked second-lowest in aggressiveness percentage and average intended air yards, third-lowest in average air yards to the sticks, and fifth-lowest in average completed air yards. In other words, he was about as aggressive as a stuffed animal.

There's little doubt that Mike Mayock, Jon Gruden, and Co. need to add to their offensive arsenal. More importantly, they need to bring in a guy who can make things happen after the catch. Enter Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb. In my eyes, no receiver in this year's draft is better after the catch than Lamb -- as indicated by his 19.0 yards per reception average in three collegiate seasons. Jerry Jeudy is a more polished route runner -- and could very well be the pick here -- but for my money, I like Lamb's fit better. You can read more on Lamb versus Jeudy here.

Lamb is currently +120 to be drafted ahead of Jeudy and +180 to be the first wideout taken -- I prefer the latter. The under (-112) hits here on Lamb's draft position projection of 12.5.

13. San Francisco 49ers (From IND): Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

Most mocked positions: WR (75%), DT (15%), CB (10%).
Most mocked players: CeeDee Lamb (35%), Jerry Jeudy (25%), Henry Ruggs (15%), Javon Kinlaw (15%), C.J. Henderson (10%).
Offense or defense: Offense (-168).

Outside of Deebo Samuel, the San Francisco 49ers don't have much proven talent at receiver. With the way this mock has played out, they're in a position to land the draft's most polished wideout -- Alabama's Jerry Jeudy.

Were this scenario to happen, Jeudy would hit the over at FanDuel on a draft position of 12.5, priced at an intriguing +134. Even more invigorating are San Fran's current odds of landing Jeudy -- listed at +340.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

Most mocked positions: OT (80%), S (10%).
Most mocked players: Andrew Thomas (45%), Jedrick Wills Jr. (15%), Mekhi Becton (10%).
Offense or defense: Offense (-150).

If you sign Tom Brady, you better be prepared to protect him.

According to Football Outsiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranked 11th-worst in adjusted sack rate and 10th-worst in adjusted line yards in 2019. That won't cut it with the 42-year-old Brady.

Neither of Tampa's current bookends are anything to write home about, which is why a majority of experts have the Bucs selecting a tackle at 14. They could do much worse than Georgia's Andrew Thomas. Thomas is the second-ranked tackle on my board, behind only Iowa's Tristan Wirfs.

While I believe there's a good chance the under will hit, in this mock, Thomas' draft position of 11.5 results in the over (-126).

15. Denver Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Most mocked positions: WR (50%), DT (15%), LB (15%), OT (10%), CB (10%).
Most mocked players: Henry Ruggs III (30%), CeeDee Lamb (15%), Javon Kinlaw (10%), Kenneth Murray (10%).
Offense or defense: Offense (-250).

If the top three receivers are gone, I like Florida's C.J. Henderson for this pick. However, in this scenario, Alabama's Henry Ruggs is still on the board.

The Denver Broncos have one of the league's best young talented receivers in Courtland Sutton, but they don't have a real difference-maker opposite him. Ruggs would change that, quickly.

Despite all the talk about Ruggs being the first wideout off the board, he hits the over (-122) on his projected draft position of 14.5.

16. Atlanta Falcons: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

Most mocked positions: CB (40%), EDGE (35%), DT (25%).
Most mocked players: C.J. Henderson (35%), K'Lavon Chaisson (35%), Javon Kinlaw (25%).
Offense or defense: Defense (-330).

After cutting Desmond Trufant, the Atlanta Falcons left themselves with just Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield as their perimeter corners. That won't cut it.

The Falcons obviously need a pass-rusher, but an argument can be made that any edge selected here would be a reach. Florida's C.J. Henderson is the second corner on most boards -- including mine -- and he can step into a starting role right away for Atlanta.

At FanDuel, his current projected draft position is 16.5 -- you can get the under for -112, which is a play I love.

17. Dallas Cowboys: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

Most mocked positions: CB (40%), EDGE (40%).
Most mocked players: K'Lavon Chaisson (30%), C.J. Henderson (25%), Trevon Diggs (10%).
Offense or defense: Defense (-340).

In Mike McCarthy's last five drafts as head coach of the Green Bay Packers, the team drafted 7 defensive backs with their 10 top-two round picks.

McCarthy is now heading up the Dallas Cowboys, and their needs are very similar to what Green Bay's were for all those years -- they need an edge rusher, a corner, and a safety on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas signed a former McCarthy first-rounder in Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, though the deal is just for one year.

I think Jerry Jones will elect to go with a corner in round one. With the Falcons taking Henderson at 16, another guy who can step in and replace Byron Jones is Alabama's Trevon Diggs. The former receiver has excellent ball skills to go with his ideal size for the position.

Diggs is +120 to be drafted ahead of teammate Xavier McKinney, -112 to be drafted before the 28th pick, and -260 to be drafted in the first round. I prefer the first two plays.

18. Miami Dolphins (From PIT): Josh Jones, OT, Houston

Most mocked positions: OT (60%), S (15%), RB (10%).
Most mocked players: Josh Jones (25%), Austin Jackson (15%), Xavier McKinney (15%), D'Andre Swift (10%).

The Miami Dolphins will need to bring in reinforcements along their offensive line to protect {insert quarterback's name here}. Waiting until 26 is too risky, even if it means reaching a bit for Houston's Josh Jones.

Jones has plenty of untapped potential and would benefit from landing with a team that isn't inclined to win right away.

19. Las Vegas Raiders (From CHI): Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

Most mocked positions: LB (45%), CB (25%), S (15%), WR (10%).
Most mocked players: Kenneth Murray (35%), Kristian Fulton (10%), Xavier McKinney (10%), Patrick Queen (10%).

The Oakland Raiders reportedly were in the mix for Byron Jones, Chris Harris, and Darius Slay before they all ended up elsewhere. They settled on Eli Apple. That can't be it for them at the position.

LSU's Kristian Fulton is the second-ranked corner on some boards and is inside the top five at the position on nearly every expert's big board. Fulton isn't a burner, but he makes up for it by being one of the craftier corners in this class. The 21-year-old is -330 to be selected in the first round, so you won't get much value on a wager there. I'd much prefer the under (-102) on his projected draft position of 24.5.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (From LAR): Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

Most mocked positions: CB (40%), S (20%), QB (20%).
Most mocked players: Jordan Love (20%), Trevon Diggs (20%), Xavier McKinney (10%), Kristian Fulton (10%).

From "The Jackson 5" to one of the worst secondaries in football -- that's the story of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The secondary that was one of the best in recent memory, now has holes everywhere you look.

Alabama's Xavier McKinney would be a good start for a rebuild on their backend. McKinney is a versatile safety who can be a nice defensive toy for whichever defensive coordinator ends up with him.

McKinney is -200 to be the first safety drafted and is -126 to be drafted before the 26th pick. I'm a fan of both plays.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

Most mocked positions: WR (90%), LB (10%).
Most mocked players: Justin Jefferson (45%), Denzel Mims (15%), Tee Higgins (15%), Henry Ruggs III (10%), Patrick Queen (10%).
Offense or defense: (-186).

According to reports, the Philadelphia Eagles met with Baylor's Denzel Mims at the Senior Bowl, Combine, and, most recently, over FaceTime. The interest is pretty self-explanatory. Philly's need for a wideout is probably the most obvious one in the draft. And logically, they should be looking for speed on the outside. They get that with Mims, who is in the 90th percentile or better in 40-yard speed, speed score, and burst score, according to PlayerProfiler.

LSU's Justin Jefferson is the favorite to be the pick here (+180), but with him being better suited for a slot-heavy role, the Eagles could be better off with Mims.

There's demonstrable value here, as Mims is 5/1 to be Philadelphia's first pick.

22. Minnesota Vikings (From BUF): Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

Most mocked positions: WR (50%), CB (20%), OT (15%), EDGE (10%).
Most mocked players: Justin Jefferson (20%), Denzel Mims (10%), Austin Jackson (10%), Kristan Fulton (10%), Tee Higgins (10%), Jalen Reagor (10%).
Offense or defense: Defense (-230).

Wideout might be a popular projection for the Minnesota Vikings, but corner is arguably a much more glaring need. This offseason, the Vikings lost Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Mackensie Alexander, and replaced them one.

TCU's Jeff Gladney is a physical press corner with plenty of length (70th percentile) and confidence -- all traits that should fit well in Mike Zimmer's defense.

Gladney is +188 to be drafted in the first round, making this a great value play. I also like the under (-112) on the 23-year-old's projected draft position of 35.5.

23. New England Patriots: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

Most mocked positions: EDGE (40%), QB (35%), S (15%), WR (10%).
Most mocked players: Jordan Love (35%), A.J. Epenesa (20%), Yetur Gross-Matos (10%), K'Lavon Chaisson (10%).
Offense or defense: Offense (-126).

I'm not entirely convinced that Utah State's Jordan Love will make it all the way to 23 and fall into the lap of the New England Patriots, but in this mock, that's exactly what happens. In fact, on FanDuel, Love's over/under is 17.5 -- with the under (-126) slightly favored. The over is priced at -102.

Read more about how to bet Love's props here.

24. New Orleans Saints: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

Most mocked positions: LB (35%), WR (25%), QB (15%), CB (10%).
Most mocked players: Kenneth Murray (20%), Patrick Queen (15%), Jordan Love (15%), Denzel Mims (10%).
Offense or defense: Defense (-118).

Boasting one of the most complete rosters in the league, the New Orleans Saints will approach this pick with the ability to go in a number of different directions. One of those directions is off-ball linebacker. New Orleans lost A.J. Klein in free agency, and two of their starting 'backers -- Kiko Alonso and Alex Anzalone -- are recovering from season-ending injuries.

Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray would be a great fit alongside Demario Davis. His odds of hitting the over on his draft position of 21.5 (-112) is equal to him hitting the under. In this case, the over is the play. I'd prefer that bet to the prop where he gets drafted before K'Lavon Chaisson (+130).

25. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

Most mocked position: CB (30%), WR (20%), EDGE (20%), OT (20%), DT (10%).
Most mocked players: A.J. Epenesa (15%), Josh Jones (15%), A.J. Terrell (10%), Ross Blacklock (10%).

The trade of Stefon Diggs put a huge dent in Minnesota's offense. If they want to win now, passing on one of the more NFL-ready wideouts -- LSU's Justin Jefferson -- is not the way to go.

Jefferson could step in on day one and immediately assert himself as one of Kirk Cousins' favorite weapons. Jefferson is a polished route runner, especially from the slot, and the type of player Cousins has had success with in the past.

If this was the pick, Jefferson would hit the over (-112) on his projected draft position of 21.5. The 21-year-old is -700 to go in round one -- no need to touch that one.

26. Miami Dolphins (From HOU): Cesar Ruiz, IOL, Michigan

Most mocked positions: RB (35%), OT (20%), S (20%), IOL (15%).
Most mocked players: D'Andre Swift (35%), Josh Jones (15%), Cesar Ruiz (15%), Xavier McKinney (10%).

I, for one, would not be shocked if the Dolphins double-dipped at offensive line. They need a tackle and help in the interior. With Jones and now Michigan's Cesar Ruiz, they get both.

D'Andre Swift is a popular pick here, but the Dolphins pick again at 39, and they should be able to get one of the top backs there.

27. Seattle Seahawks: Austin Jackson, OT, USC

Most mocked positions: EDGE (45%), OT (30%), S (20%).
Most mocked players: Yetur Gross-Matos (30%), Austin Jackson (15%), Ezra Cleveland (10%), Jeremy Chinn (10%), Xavier McKinney (10%).
Offense or defense: Offense (+116)

Tackle might not be the Seattle Seahawks' most glaring immediate need, but this is a team that has had revolving doors at nearly every offensive line position for years. Left tackle Duane Brown will be 35-years-old when the 2020 season begins, and recent signee Brandon Shell is not the long-term answer on the right side either.

USC's Austin Jackson is a bit of a project at tackle, but he could be the future for this team. Jackson's under/over is 28.5, with the under favored at -140, and Jackson's odds of going in round one are -228. I prefer the former.

28. Baltimore Ravens: K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU

Most mocked positions: LB (40%), EDGE (30%), RB (10%), WR (10%).
Most mocked players: Kenneth Murray (20%), Patrick Queen (20%), Yenur Gross-Matos (10%), Jonathan Taylor (10%).
Offense or defense: Defense (-112).

The Baltimore Ravens could benefit from adding some bodies at receiver and/or running back, but this is an analytically-inclined team that should be comfortable addressing those positions on days two or three.

I think this pick will come down to two LSU players -- inside linebacker Patrick Queen and edge-rusher K'Lavon Chaisson. When you think of the Ravens, you don't really think of a team that has a shortage at either of those positions. There have been reports that they could look to trade Matthew Judon, who they recently franchise tagged. Even if they don't, they still need an influx of talent on the edge.

Chaisson is the second-highest edge rusher on quite a few boards, and there have been a number of expert mocks that have him going inside or near the top 10. This would be a nice get for Baltimore.

With a draft position over/under of 15.5, I think Chaisson hits the over (-130) easily.

29. Tennessee Titans: Marlon Davidson, DE/DT, Auburn

Most mocked positions: EDGE (45%), CB (25%), OT (15%).
Most mocked players: A.J. Epenesa (20%), Jeff Gladney (15%), Josh Jones (10%), Yetur Gross-Matos (10%).
Offense or defense: Defense (-102).

The Tennessee Titans are one of the tougher teams to figure out. Their obvious needs are an interior or edge rusher as well as a replacement for Logan Ryan. However, they're still interested in re-signing Ryan, and they are one of the teams showing interest in Jadeveon Clowney. If either of those were to happen, their "draft needs" could change drastically.

With the way this mock has played out, the talent available along the defensive front is better than what's there at corner -- and they haven't signed Clowney just yet. Enter Auburn's Marlon Davidson.

Davidson could step in and immediately replace a chunk of the production the Titans lost by trading Jurrell Casey. Like Casey, he can line up either on the interior or exterior of Tennessee's defensive line.

One way or another, Tennessee drafting a defensive player first (-102) is one of my favorite offense/defense prop bets.

30. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

Most mocked positions: WR (75%), LB (15%).
Most mocked players: Denzel Mims (25%), Justin Jefferson (15%), Jalen Reagor (10%), Zack Baun (10%), Laviska Shenault Jr. (10%).
Offense or defense: Offense (-186).

I could see the Green Bay Packers going in three directions with this pick -- tackle, wideout, or linebacker. Defensive tackle and corner are also possibilities, though I'd consider them secondary.

In this scenario, with each of Josh Jones, Austin Jackson, and Kenneth Murray off the board, I think Brian Gutekunst will elect to go with the most predictable route -- wide receiver.

There are a number of other pass-catchers who have been mocked more frequently to Green Bay, but Arizona State's Brandon Aiyuk is the one who checks all the boxes.

More than anything, Matt LaFleur's offense needs an influx of speed -- Aiyuk has plenty to offer. They need one who they can design plays for and who can make things happen with the ball in his hands (Deebo Samuel-esque) -- Aiyuk can be that guy from day one. Just look at this compilation of his college touchdowns and notice all of the different ways he can score.

This pick is a match made in heaven.

Aiyuk is currently +144 to be drafted in the first round. Get on that before it's too late.

31. San Francisco 49ers: A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson

Most mocked positions: CB (50%), DT (15%), IOL (15%), WR (10%).
Most mocked players: Trevon Diggs (15%), A.J. Terrell (10%), Kristan Fulton (10%), Zack Baun (10%), Ross Blacklock (10%).

I'll start with this -- I don't think the San Francisco 49ers will keep this pick. They don't have a single pick between 31 and 156, and they're in a great position to stockpile from a team looking to move back into round one. That said, predicting trades is nearly impossible, so I won't even bother trying.

San Francisco can manage with what they have at corner for 2020, but beyond that, they could be in trouble. Richard Sherman, K'Waun Williams, Ahkello Witherspoon, and Emmanuel Moseley (restricted) are all currently slated to become free agents after this upcoming season. That all makes Clemson's A.J. Terrell an enticing pick.

Terrell projects to be a solid press corner who also happens to have decent speed (87th percentile). Last you saw him, Terrell was getting pummeled by LSU's Ja'Marr Chase, but that's a guy who should be a top 10 pick in next year's draft.

Terrell is listed at +112 to go in round one. It's not a bet I'd rush to get in on, but I do prefer it to the under (-126) on his projected draft position of 34.5.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

Most mocked positions: CB (30%), LB (20%), RB (20%), EDGE (15%), DT (10%).
Most mocked players: D'Andre Swift (15%), Patrick Queen (15%), Ross Blacklock (10%), Damon Arnette (10%), A.J. Terrell (10%), Noah Igbinoghene (10%).
Offense or defense: Defense (-186).

Reports from mid-March had the Kansas City Chiefs looking to utilize the little cap space that they do have on a coverage linebacker. They haven't done that yet, which means they could address the need in the draft.

LSU's Patrick Queen is not as polished in coverage as Kenneth Murray, but he can hold his own. Queen can come in and be an immediate contributor for the Super Bowl champs.

Queen currently has an over/under of 25.5 at FanDuel, with the over listed at +112. It's one of my favorite draft position wagers. Queen is also -550 to be drafted on day one. I wouldn't touch that, though I would give serious consideration to the +350 line that he won't go in round one.

Other Props that Hit

Position Totals

Quarterbacks (4.5) - The under, listed at -400, seems like the correct play.
Running Backs (0.5) - As I outline in this piece, I like under. Particularly with the odds being +240.
Wide Receivers (6.5) - As Brandon Gdula wrote in his article, the over (+126) is a great bet.
Offensive Lineman (6.5) - Another position where I prefer the over -- listed at +108. Read more about it here.
Defensive Players (15.5) - The under (-136) just hit in this mock.
Offensive Players (16.5) - Unless a specialist is drafted, one of these overs will hit. My pick is offensive, priced at -138.


Alabama (5.5) - When I wrote the piece on Alabama players in round one, the over was listed at -112. Now that it's +102, I'm much more inclined to bet it -- it hits in this mock.
LSU (5.5) - This is not a prop I'd bet -- as I wrote a couple weeks ago -- but, if I did bet it, I'd go for the under (-230).
Ohio State (2.5) - The under (-380) hit in this mock, but if I were to place a wager, I'd go for the over (+270).
Georgia (1.5) - Hello, value. The under, listed at +138, hits here.
Clemson (2.5) - In every mock I've done, I have a hard time getting to the over -- which is probably why the under has odds of -310.


SEC vs. The Field - I have 16 SEC players going in round one. If that's the case, the bet would be void.
Total SEC Players (15.5) - The over (-122) hits in these projections.
ACC (2.5) - The over (-210) hit in this mock, but I much prefer betting the under (+162).
Big Ten (5.5) - I have the under (-112) hitting with ease -- with only four Big Ten players projected in this mock.
Big 12 (3.5) - Four Big 12 players are drafted in this mock, and the over is listed at +134. Me likey.
Pac 12 (2.5) - My favorite conference bet is the Pac 12 -- with the over coming in at +192. I grade Herbert, Aiyuk, and Austin Jackson as first-rounders -- that's what it would take.

Drafted in First Round

D'Andre Swift - Swift is +102 to not go on day one. That's the play here.
A.J. Epenesa - Listed at +166 to be passed on in round one, that value play hits in this mock.