NFL Draft Betting: How Many Big 12 Players Will Be Drafted in Round 1?
I started off the conference betting series with a look at how many SEC players will be drafted on day one. That was the natural place to begin since round one is a handful of players away from being named the "SEC rookie draft."
Now it's time to look at some conferences that should offer more value from a betting perspective. The Big 12 is an intriguing place to begin.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set the over/under for Big 12 players in round one at 3.5, with the over listed at +134. The under is priced at a seemingly unappealing -172.
In order to figure out how to bet this, let's look at current projections and the players in question.
The Projections
Here's a look at how 30 of the most accurate mock drafters, respected analysts, and yours truly have this bet going.
| Expert | THR 5-Year Accuracy |
FantasyPros 2019 Accuracy |
Big 12 Players in the First |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hanson | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Ben Standig | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Forrest Long | 3 | 4 | |
| Ryan McCrystal | 5 | 39 | 4 |
| Evan Silva | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Matthew Jones | 7 | 34 | 5 |
| Joe Marino | 11 | 85 | 4 |
| Charlie Campbell | 1 | 3 | |
| Walter Cherepinsky | 2 | 4 | |
| Michael Schwartz | 5 | 4 | |
| Scott Smith | 9 | 5 | |
| Peter Schrager | 11 | 4 | |
| Dane Brugler | 13 | 3 | |
| Daniel Jeremiah | 14 | 3 | |
| Chris Trapasso | 15 | 4 | |
| Todd McShay | 16 | 3 | |
| Ken Zalis | 18 | 5 | |
| Matt Miller | 20 | 4 | |
| Luke Easterling | 21 | 6 | |
| Elisha Twerski (ME!) | 27 | 4 | |
| Trevor Sikkema | 44 | 4 | |
| Benjamin Solak | 49 | 4 | |
| Mel Kiper | 52 | 3 | |
| Charles Davis | 58 | 3 | |
| Kyle Crabbs | 59 | 5 | |
| Will Brinson | 77 | 3 | |
| Pete Prisco | 118 | 3 | |
| John McClain | 122 | 3 | |
| Chad Reuter | 5 | ||
| Justin Reid | 5 |
My hope is that this helps illustrate as to why the over on 3.5 is one of my favorite wagers on the board. Of the 30 mocks listed above, two-thirds have at least four Big 12 players hearing their names called on day one -- 7 of the 30 have more than four.
Given the 42.7 percent implied odds of the over, this is looking more and more delicious. Additionally, I ran 15 first-round simulations on three different sites -- the Draft Network, NFL Mock Draft Database, and Pro Football Network -- and...just take a look at the results.
| Site | Fewer than four | Four | More than four |
|---|---|---|---|
| nflmockdraftdatabase | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| thedraftnetwork | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| profootballnetwork | 5 | 10 | 0 |
In just 13.3 percent of simulations did fewer than four Big 12 players get selected in round one. In fact, at least five players from the conference went in round one in 40 percent of the mocks.
The Players
The one and only lock from the Big 12 to go in round one is Oklahoma's, CeeDee Lamb. His teammate -- Kenneth Murray -- has 84.6 percent implied odds of being selected in the first.
Baylor's Denzel Mims carries 59.7 percent implied odds of going on day one -- finding a mock that excludes him is a difficult task. TCU's Jeff Gladney is a popular name in round one of most mocks. His teammates -- Jalen Reagor and Ross Blacklock -- also frequent many simulations.
In addition to Lamb and Murray, Oklahoma defensive tackle Neville Gallimore is also selected in the first round by some experts. Though Gallimore is a longshot, the other six each have realistic prospects of hearing Roger Goodell call their name on day one.
The Pick
If you haven't caught on by now, allow me to spell it out for you -- I. AM. PICKING. THE. OVER.
At +134, this is one of my favorite plays for the NFL Draft.
