FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 11/2/22
Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, basketball daily fantasy would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?
Well, as a result, NBA daily fantasy is extremely reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate and Key Injuries
|New Orleans||LA Lakers||228.5||115.8||112.8||21||1|
Toronto and San Antonio could end up a value-play hub of the night. For the Raptors, Fred VanVleet (back) and Otto Porter (personal) are questionable. The Spurs have Keldon Johnson (calf), Jeremy Sochan (illness), and Isaiah Roby (illness) all up in the air, and the team is still without Devin Vassell (knee).
We saw Desmond Bane (ankle) sit for the Grizzlies on Monday. He and Steven Adams (jaw) are questionable for Wednesday. On the other side of their tilt with Portland, Josh Hart (concussion) is questionable.
Terry Rozier (ankle) and Cody Martin (quad) are doubtful again for Charlotte. They're hosting Chicago without Zach LaVine (knee), and the Bulls could also be down Andre Drummond (shoulder) and Coby White (quad).
There will be enough value on this slate to jam in Luka Doncic ($11,800), so plan on doing so.
Doncic has fairly little competition to put the ball in the basket, and it'll be even less potentially without Christian Wood. Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,000) dropped 21 points in their last game, and Doncic still had 44 to himself. His league-leading 40.4% usage rate is absurd, and so far, it's been translated to 1.75 FanDuel points per minute.
Outside of Luka, I don't mind Ja Morant ($9,900) at all as a potential lone ranger in Portland. He's got a Luka-like 39.6% usage rate with Des Bane off the floor this season. On the other side, Anfernee Simons ($7,800) might still be undersalaried coming off 30-point efforts in two of his past three. He's still without Damian Lillard (calf) at his side.
Davion Mitchell ($4,900) is still undersalaried for a full-time role expected in Fox's absence. He's in a tier of his own as a value play today.
It's still hard to ignore Jalen Green ($6,000) -- even though it's likely foolish. Green's 26.9% usage rate is a steal for the salary, but usage only goes so far if you can't put the ball in the basket. Shooting 24.1% from the field in his past three games, it's increasingly obvious he can't regularly.
Other than Mitchell, Shaedon Sharpe ($4,200) stands out for Portland in a decent-sized role. Other guards topping our projections as point-per-dollar plays include Marcus Smart ($5,700), Ayo Dosunmu ($5,400), and the always-enigmatic Patrick Beverley ($4,800).
Antetokoumpo was bizarrely inactive in the first half as Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez poured in points, but the data says that'll be Giannis more often than not. He still leads the Bucks handily with superhuman marks in usage rate (36.9%) and a league-best FanDuel points per minute rate (1.76).
There is a key alternative today, and it's Paul George ($9,000) coming off the single-best FanDuel total (78.8) we've seen all year. George plays an immediate rematch with the Rockets today and is still relatively undersalaried given his 36.5% usage rate Monday. The Clips continue to operate without Kawhi Leonard.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,900) has been disappointing, but it's because he shared the court with Zach LaVine nearly every game. Without LaVine on the floor this year, DeRozan's turned in 31.3% usage rate and 1.37 FanDuel points per minute. He's a steal as LaVine rests.
Scottie Barnes ($6,700) and OG Anunoby ($6,300) should be in for massive nights again if VanVleet sits. Most notably of all, Nick Nurse burned his starters to at least 31 minutes in a blowout Monday. These guys are seeing playoff minutes right now.
There are some familiar faces leading the per-dollar projections at wing, and they haven't really disappointed. RJ Barrett ($5,800), Keegan Murray ($5,600), Gary Trent Jr. ($5,600), Lonnie Walker ($5,500), and Saddiq Bey ($5,200) make for a myriad of value wings to choose from on this massive slate.
We're not short on quality stars here, either.
Pascal Siakam ($9,600) has a hefty salary, but he's earned it, eclipsing 49 FanDuel points in four of the Raps' seven games this year. Now, potentially without VanVleet, he'll have a few extra shots at his disposal.
With LaVine sitting, we can turn to Nikola Vucevic ($8,400) as well. He's at a modest 1.12 FanDuel points per minute without LaVine on the year, including 46.4 FanDuel points in the opener against Miami.
Zion Williamson ($8,300) is also back and -- against the Clippers -- looked better than ever. He poured in 21 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, and dished 7 assists. He's on the radar against the Lakers, who hold the second-worst estimated rebounding rate (47.1%) in the league.
I'm still in on rookie Jabari Smith Jr. ($5,500) despite Alperen Sengun ($6,300) entering the starting lineup. Smith's four straight games under 31.0% from the field have caused his slump -- not a second big next to him.
As the Portland hierarchy is up for grabs without Lillard, Jerami Grant ($6,400) should continue to be more aggressive. He tied his season-high with 11 shots on Friday.
Our model continues to want to buy low on Evan Mobley ($6,400) in hopes of the big man's 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season spiking back to last year's rate (1.00). Other notable per-dollar bigs in the model include the aforementioned Sengun, Julius Randle ($7,400), and Atlanta center Clint Capela ($5,700).