NBA Power Rankings: Are the Grizzlies Worth a Postseason Bet?
Teams will be ranked in terms of nERD, which is our efficiency metric based on in-game data. These ratings allow us to understand which teams and players are performing best. nERD is indicative of a team's expected winning percentage, so an average team will have a nERD score of 50.0.
Here's a look at how each team stacks up.
The Bottom 10
|26||Oklahoma City Thunder||14-20||33.4||27||+1|
- After putting together a five-game win streak in mid-February, the Washington Wizards have lost three of their last five. At 13-20, Washington is somehow only -340 to miss the playoffs over at FanDuel Sportsbook. That implies 77.3% odds -- our model has the likelihood at 86.5%.
- The Miami Heat went 3-1 for the second consecutive week, but like last week, our model still sees some value in betting on them missing the playoffs, which is priced at +540. Those odds imply that there's just a 15.6% chance that Miami doesn't make it to the postseason, while our model has it at 35.2%. It's not a bet for the faint of heart, but it could pay off.
The Middle of the Pack
|19||Portland Trail Blazers||19-14||46.4||18||-1|
|17||New York Knicks||18-18||49.6||16||-1|
|T14||San Antonio Spurs||18-13||50.2||15||+1|
|T10||Golden State Warriors||19-16||52.3||10||0|
- Despite a 1-2 week, numberFire's algorithm sees plenty of value in betting on the Chicago Bulls to be one of the top-eight seeds in the East when the season is over and done with. Our model currently gives Chicago a 31.5% chance of clinching a playoff birth, while their FanDuel odds of +440 imply just 18.5% likelihood.
- A 19-14 record doesn't deter our model from ranking the Portland Trail Blazers as a bottom-12 team in the league, and that could mean some value on the betting side. The Blazers have dropped four of their last five, and numberFire gives them a 48.0% probability of missing the playoffs. The betting odds of Portland missing the dance is +142, which carries 41.3% implied odds -- if our model is correct, this could be a decent value bet.
- For the third week in a row, I'm going to cite the New York Knicks as a good postseason bet, given how high our model is on them. numberFire's algorithm gives the Knickerbockers a 53.8% chance of earning their way into the playoffs, and yet that bet is priced at +164, which implies just a 37.9% probability of occurrence. New York is also 13th in the league in net rating per NBA.com, which certainly doesn't hurt their outlook as far as this bet is concerned.
- No team saw a bigger jump in our rankings than the Memphis Grizzlies, who are starting to look like a value bet to make the playoffs in the West. FanDuel's price for the Grizzlies reaching the postseason is a juicy +198 -- or 33.6% implied odds. Our algo has the likelihood at 43.5%.
The Best of the Best
|T10||New Orleans Pelicans||15-19||52.3||12||+2|
|4||Los Angeles Lakers||24-12||65.4||4||0|
|3||Los Angeles Clippers||24-13||66.2||2||0|
- Only three teams have a large positive discrepancy between their FanDuel odds and numberFire probability, and I covered all three extensively in Monday's odds update.
- Our algorithm gives the Phoenix Suns a 4.5% chance of winning it all, and yet their betting price at FanDuel is +4200 (2.3% implied odds).
- At 20.9%, the Milwaukee Bucks have the second-best title probability, per our models. However, Milwaukee's sportsbook odds of +750 imply that they just have an 11.8% chance of hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
- Finally, the Utah Jazz have our model's best likelihood coming away as NBA Champions this season, coming in at 22.5%. Nevertheless, placing a championship wager on them is priced at a salivating +850 -- that's 10.5% implied odds. Sign me up.