NBA Odds Update: The Suns Are Undervalued
In this edition of the 2020-21 NBA Championship Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their numberFire title odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong starts and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those that had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see numberFire's odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. FanDuel Sportsbook's most up-to-date championship odds can be found here. Now, here's a look at the three teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last week.
Utah Jazz
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 22.8%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 16.7%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +850
Another week, another article where I tout the Utah Jazz as a top title bet.
Utah currently leads the league with a net rating of 9.5, 1.7 points better than the next-best team, according to NBA.com. They rank third in the Association in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Oh, and they also have three more wins and four fewer losses than any team in the NBA.
Our model ranks the Jazz as the best team in the league and has their likelihood of winning an NBA Championship this season at 22.8%. With implied odds of just 10.5%, the potential for value here is rather obvious.
Milwaukee Bucks
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 23.1%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 19.3%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +700
After losing five in a row for the first time since February of 2017, the Milwaukee Bucks have racked off five consecutive wins and sit just one game behind for the 1 seed in the East.
The Deer currently possess the league's second-best net rating, and they are tied for first in the league in offensive efficiency. Milwaukee is being led by two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who's on an insane 10-game stretch in which he's averaging 33.5 points, 13.4 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.7 blocks all while shooting 55.2% from the field and 75.0% from the line.
numberFire's models currently give the bucks a league-best 23.1% chance to win the title this year. At FanDuel's price of 7/1, Milwaukee's implied total is just 12.5%. In other words, our algorithm sees them as a massive value bet.
Phoenix Suns
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 4.0%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 1.6%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +4200
Is it time we recognize the Phoenix Suns as legitimate title contenders? Our model thinks so.
Since the bubble last season, Phoenix is 30-11, and 7 of those losses have come by five points or fewer. This season, the Suns find themselves third in the league in net rating, and they rank fourth in defensive efficiency and eighth on the offensive end. The Suns have an impressive resume, with victories over the Jazz, Bucks, and Philadelphia 76ers among others.
A title bet on the Suns is currently priced at 42/1, which is behind teams like the Boston Celtics (+3000 -- yuck), Denver Nuggets (+3000), and Miami Heat (+3600). According to numberFire's models, the Suns have a better likelihood of winning it all (4.0%) than all three of those teams combined (3.8%).
At +4200, the implied odds are just 2.3%, which is comfortably below our algorithm's 4.0% probability.
