NBA Power Rankings: Are the Heat in Danger of Missing the Playoffs?
With more than a third of the 2020-21 NBA regular season in the books, it's time to take a look at numberFire's power rankings and see which teams saw the most movement since last week.
Teams will be ranked in terms of nERD, which is our efficiency metric based on in-game data. These ratings allow us to understand which teams and players are performing best. nERD is indicative of a team's expected winning percentage, so an average team will have a nERD score of 50.0.
Here's a look at how each team stacks up.
The Bottom 10
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 10-19 | 25.2 | 26 | -4 |
| 29 | Orlando Magic | 10-18 | 29.9 | 28 | -2 |
| 28 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 7-21 | 31.6 | 29 | +1 |
| 27 | Detroit Pistons | 8-19 | 32.4 | 30 | +3 |
| 26 | Washington Wizards | 8-17 | 33.9 | 25 | -1 |
| 25 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 11-16 | 34.4 | 27 | +2 |
| 24 | Miami Heat | 11-16 | 38.1 | 24 | 0 |
| 23 | Sacramento Kings | 12-15 | 38.6 | 22 | -1 |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | 11-15 | 42.3 | 23 | +1 |
| 21 | Houston Rockets | 11-16 | 44.5 | 13 | -8 |
- Once upon a time, the Cleveland Cavaliers were 8-7 -- they have since lost 12 of their last 14 and now find themselves dead last in our rankings.
- Speaking of racking up losses -- the Orlando Magic started the season 6-2 and have since dropped 16 out of their last 20. Yikes. Over at NBA Finals odds, you can bet that Orlando will miss the playoffs at -450, which carries implied odds of 81.8%. numberFire's algorithm has a 91.8% likelihood on the Magic not making it to the dance -- so there is potential for value here.
- Another losing week keeps the Miami Heat firmly entrenched in the bottom tier of our rankings. At this point, our models give the Heat a 50% chance of not making it to the postseason, and yet the betting odds at FanDuel are +350. That's a whopping 27.8% difference between our model's projection and the implied odds, making this one of the best value bets on the board.
- The Houston Rockets have lost six straight, and only one of those losses has been by fewer than 12 points. Houston's eight-spot drop in our rankings is the largest of the week.
The Middle of the Pack
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Charlotte Hornets | 13-15 | 44.9 | 19 | -1 |
| 19 | Dallas Mavericks | 13-15 | 46.6 | 20 | +1 |
| 18 | Memphis Grizzlies | 11-12 | 46.8 | 15 | -3 |
| 17 | New York Knicks | 14-15 | 49.1 | 21 | +4 |
| 16 | San Antonio Spurs | 16-11 | 49.2 | 17 | +1 |
| T14 | Atlanta Hawks | 11-16 | 49.6 | 8 | -6 |
| T14 | Portland Trail Blazers | 17-10 | 49.6 | 18 | +4 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 12-15 | 50.3 | 16 | +3 |
| 12 | Boston Celtics | 14-13 | 51.0 | 9 | -3 |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 14-14 | 53.2 | 10 | -1 |
- Another potential value bet to miss the playoffs is the Dallas Mavericks, who are priced at +198 to do so (33.6% implied odds). Given that our model now puts the probability of Dallas missing the playoffs at 52.4%, we can see that there might be value here.
- The very first bet I like to actually make the playoffs is the New York Knicks. FanDuel has the Knicks' odds of making the playoffs at +152, which carries implied odds of 39.7 -- our model puts New York's likelihood of clinching a playoff birth at 51.0%. It makes sense -- the Knicks rank third in defensive efficiency this season, according to NBA.com.
- The Atlanta Hawks have won just once out of eight tries in February. They dropped six spots in our rankings and will likely continue to fall if their play doesn't pick up.
The Best of the Best
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Toronto Raptors | 13-15 | 53.3 | 11 | +1 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 15-13 | 53.7 | 14 | +5 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 17-10 | 55.8 | 12 | +4 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 15-12 | 58.2 | 7 | 0 |
| 6 | Philadelphia 76ers | 18-10 | 59.7 | 5 | -1 |
| 5 | Brooklyn Nets | 18-12 | 61.3 | 6 | +1 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | 22-7 | 70.5 | 3 | -1 |
| 3 | Milwaukee Bucks | 16-12 | 70.9 | 1 | -2 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Clippers | 21-8 | 71.7 | 4 | +2 |
| 1 | Utah Jazz | 23-5 | 75.8 | 2 | +1 |
- For this tier, we'll focus on the title bets that present the best potential value.
- The Philadelphia 76ers lost each of their three games this week, but numberFire's algorithm still sees value in placing a championship wager on them. Over at oddsFire, we see that you can make a Sixers title bet for as low as +2500, or 3.9% implied odds. Our model gives Philly a 5.6% chance of hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
- Finally, without a doubt, the best value play belongs to the Utah Jazz. Utah currently has the best record and net rating in the league, and they rank inside the top-four in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Over the last 10 days, the Jazz have had convincing wins over the Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Heat, and Sixers. Given all of that, our model gives Utah a 15% chance of winning it all in 2020-21. Despite that, you can place a championship bet on them at +1100 at FanDuel -- that implies just 8.3% odds of occurring.
