FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 2/25/20
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
|New Orleans||LA Lakers||240.5||-8.0||116.25||124.25||4||13|
As you can see, there are some really exciting, high-paced games tonight -- along with some contests that can double as sleeping pills.
Injury updates: For the Indiana Pacers, Jeremy Lamb is out for the year, and Victor Oladipo could miss tonight's game due to back soreness -- potentially opening up significant minutes and usage in their backcourt. A whole host of players are out for the Chicago Bulls, creating potential value there. Damian Lillard remains out for Portland, and Draymond Green is questionable for Golden State. Kemba Walker is still out for the Boston Celtics.
Malcolm Brogdon ($6,100) - If recommending Brogdon leads to you having to watch the Hornets-Pacers snoozefest tonight, I sincerely apologize in advance. Lamb's injury opens up additional minutes and usage for various Pacers players, but Brogdon could see a sizable increase to his workload tonight -- especially if Oladipo were out as well. Over their last 15 games, only four teams have allowed more points to the point guard position than the Charlotte Hornets. At $6,100, Brogdon needs just 30.5 points to equal 5x value, or 5.0 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. He's exceeded that number in 7 of his last 10 contests. Our models project Brogdon to total 32.1 fantasy points tonight and peg him with the seventh-highest ceiling at the position -- though he is at least $600 cheaper than each of the six players ahead of him.
Coby White ($5,200) - There are quite a few studs on tonight's slate, and if you want to be able to afford them, you'll have to look for value plays like Coby White. Half of Chicago's roster is injured, and White has been one of the lone bright spots in what has been another miserable season for Bulls fans. White has had 11 games this season where he's played at least 30 minutes, and he's averaged 33.9 fantasy points in those contests -- including seven games with at least 35.2. The 20-year-old is averaging 31.63 minutes over his last six games, so he should easily clear the minutes mark -- as long as the game is somewhat competitive. Oklahoma City isn't a fantastic matchup for point guards, though they have surrendered the sixth-most real-life points and fourth-most rebounds to the position over their last 30 games. Our algorithm projects White for 28.1 points, making him the fifth-best value at the position.
Marcus Smart ($5,300) - In his eight games without Kemba on the court this season, Smart is averaging 38.1 fantasy points per contest -- including three with at least 49.1 points. Over their last 15 games, the Blazers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to shooting guards, putting Smart in a good spot. At $5,300, Smart would need just 26.5 points to reach 5x value, which is a number he's surpassed in three straight and in seven of his last nine. Our model projects Smart for 30.9 fantasy points, making him the third-best value at the position. He's a Smart play...get it? I know, that's comedic gold right there.
Fred VanVleet ($6,300) - If there's one position Milwaukee's top-ranked defense has been vulnerable to, it's been shooting guard. Over their 15 games, the Bucks have allowed the most real-life points and sixth-most fantasy points to the position. VanVleet needs 31.5 fantasy points to reach 5x, and that's a number he's comfortably topped in 17 of his last 23 contests. It's hard to forget what VanVleet did to Milwaukee in the playoffs last year, and Toronto might need him to replicate that success in order to come out victorious tonight. numberFire projects FVV to be the second-best value play at the position, totaling 36.9 fantasy points.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600) - Are you a believer in trends? If not, maybe you should be. In the last six instances where Giannis has failed to reach 48 fantasy points, he's bounced back with an average of 62.8 points -- including no fewer than 57.8 in any of them. In his only game against the Raptors this season, Giannis posted a measly 78 FanDuel points. On the season, only four teams have allowed more points to small forwards than the Raptors -- though it's not as if matchups matter much to the soon-to-be two-time MVP. Looking at ceilings is crucial to building lineups, and according to our model, Giannis has the highest ceiling on the slate...by nearly five points. Go with the freak -- otherwise, your lineup will look bleak. A comedian and a poet? Yes, I am the complete package.
Jaylen Brown ($6,200) - Over their last 30 games, only three teams have surrendered more fantasy points to opposing small forwards than Portland. The biggest decision is deciding between which of Brown or Gordon Hayward ($6,600) to go with. It's essentially Sophie's Choice, so we'll go with the player with higher upside and lower price. Brown needs 31 fantasy points to reach 5x tonight, and he's averaged 38.9 over his last two. Brown also benefits from Kemba's absence, as he averaged 34.3 in his nine contests without the All-Star in the lineup. The Celtics have the second-highest implied total on the slate tonight, which implies that they're implied to score a lot of points -- that certainly won't hurt Brown's value.
Anthony Davis ($10,600) - Let's play the narrative game for a minute, shall we? In two games against his former team -- the New Orleans Pelicans, if you were born yesterday -- Davis has totaled 72.1 and 63.3 FanDuel points. If you're bad with numbers, let me just tell you -- that's a lot. According to our model, Davis has the highest ceiling of any player than doesn't have 13 letters in his last name (I'm obviously referring to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope). Over their last 15 contests, the Pels have allowed the most real-life points and sixth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Look for Davis to brow-minate in this one -- hold the applause.
Harry Giles ($4,000) - In order to afford the Brown and the Freak (sounds like a weird buddy-cop movie), you're going to need some cheapies. That's where Harry Giles III comes in. Giles gets to face a Golden State team that's allowed the second-most points to power forwards over their last 30 contests -- and they could be without their best defender, Draymond Green. Giles needs a mere 20 FanDuel points to reach 5x, and he's exceeded that in three of his last five games. Our model projects Giles to record 32.4 fantasy points tonight, making him the best value on the entire slate.
Myles Turner ($5,800) - I mentioned multiple times that there should be extra usage available for Indiana with Lamb -- and possibly Oladipo -- out. With those two of the floor, the player that saw the biggest increase in his usage rate was Myles Turner, who also had a bump of 0.14 fantasy points per minute. Tonight, Turner faces a Hornets team that allows the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing centers over their last 30. More importantly, however, is the fact that they allow steals and blocks to the position like they're Mike Bloomberg ads. In fact, over that period, Charlotte has allowed the second-most steals and seventh-most blocks to centers. And that's where Turner churns out the butter. In Turner's 13 highest-scoring games this season, he's had at least three steals plus blocks in each contest. Our model projects to total 2.7 in those all-important categories -- resulting in 28.5 FanDuel points.