NBA premium

NBA Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/10/19

Between those teams resting players and others fighting for playoff spots, where can we extract betting value from on the final night of the NBA regular season?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers

76ers Moneyline (-270): 5-Star Rating out of 5

As with a number of teams tonight, no one of real importance is playing for Philadelphia 76ers. All of Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and even J.J. Redick are set to sit this one out against the Chicago Bulls. That means that we'll see an all new starting lineup, likely headed by T.J. McConnell and Boban Marjanovic, with Greg Monroe and Jonathon Simmons also likely to play prominent roles. So, how are they such sizable favorites both on the spread (-6.5) and moneyline?

No one is playing for Chicago, either. Per the team's injury report, the Bulls will play their last game of the year without Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter and Wendell Carter Jr., while Kris Dunn is listed as doubtful (he might as well be ruled out now). We are looking at the same makeshift lineup as last night -- a lineup that ended the night with a -100.0 net rating in a 10-point loss to the bottom-feeding New York Knicks.

Given the composition of these teams, you can throw just about any and all trends out the window. However, if we are keeping any it's the Sixers' home success this year. Per Killer Sports, they are 30-10 at Wells Fargo, covering at a rate above 50% and winning by 7.9 points a game. When favored, they're 30-8, including a 25-4 record when giving up five or more in Philly.

Due to the changes in personnel, don't go betting on the middle-of-the-road spread here. Instead, just bet on the Sixers' backups to do just enough for a home win -- something our models expect them to do at a 87.39% likelihood. A 19.70% return earns this line a five-star rating in our system.

Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets

Magic +4.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5

While going at the spread in the first game isn't warranted, we can find other opportunities to take advantage of tonight. The first one is in a pivotal Eastern Conference game between the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets. The Magic are in the postseason for the first time since 2012, but their seeding has yet to be determined. A win can get them up to the sixth or seventh seed, but it would also spoil Charlotte's playoff hopes.

Kemba Walker and the Hornets are playing for a playoff berth, as they need a Knicks win over the Detroit Pistons to get them in. Whether that's likely or not is irrelevant because the Hornets have to first win their game to give themselves even an outside shot. They might have the advantage of Nikola Vucevic -- questionable with a virus -- being inactive on the Orlando side, but either way the Magic with the points is a pretty straightforward bet.

With Charlotte playing for so much at home, we shouldn't go against them in this spot. After all, they've won 25 of their 40 home games to date, and their 3.6 net rating at home is in the top half of the league. But the favored Hornets have covered just 52.5% of the time and 51.7% of the time they have been labeled the favorites. They have failed to cover in three of their last four home games they have been favored in and 6 of their last 10 regardless of the line.

By our power rankings, as well as net rating, Orlando is the better team outright. They have also covered in 53.8% of their games and at a 52.9% rate as road underdogs. They have won three of their last five such games both straight up and against the points.

According to those trends, we are going to take the points over the moneyline with Orlando not necessarily needing a win. The combination of a 66.34% probability and a 26.70% return justifies a three-star bet.

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs

Mavericks +14.0: 2-Star Rating out of 5

In this game, the San Antonio Spurs are the only squad playing with something on the line. Locked into a playoff berth, they could work their way up to the 6 seed or at least ensure that they won't play the Golden State Warriors as the 8 seed in the first round. A win does that, and if the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Oklahoma City Thunder, they draw the 3 seed, which will be either the Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets or Portland Trail Blazers.

Even with Dirk Nowitzki playing in his last professional game, our models are high on the Spurs securing the win at 83.30%. However, there's nothing saying that Dirk, Luka Doncic and the Mavs can't keep it closer than the experts think. The emotional aspect is certainly there, but Dallas has been a covering machine this year.

In all games, the Mavs have covered 56.4% of the time, including three pushes. They have only dropped to 55.0% in road games and 54.5% in those they have been the underdogs. And as double-digit road 'dogs, they are 2-6 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. They've bested the spread in each of the last three scenarios.

San Antonio is 17-15 against the spread as home favorites but stand just 7-10 in this calendar year. The Spurs have had their opponents cover in the last four, including two in which they were favored by 10 or more; they're 2-4 against the spread as double-digit favorites in San Antonio.

Our models see the Mavs losing by 13 or fewer with a 60.83% likelihood. A two-star rating is backed by a 16.10% expected return.

To read all premium content, upgrade to a Premium account with numberFire

If you're not a Premium subscriber, it takes just a few seconds to sign up. You'll get access to all of our insider information, game projections, handicapping advice, DFS tools, advanced statistics, and more.

Log In Go Premium