FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 7/5/23

Wednesday's 11-game main slate is a little light at pitcher, but that opens things up for quite of few offenses that we'll want to stack. We're mostly clear of rain tonight, though Chicago's forecast could be one to keep an eye on.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

In terms of results, Pablo Lopez ($10,800) has been more of the "solid if unspectacular" variety, but his underlying metrics show that he's been one of the league's top pitchers in 2023. Over 17 starts, Lopez has put together a 3.43 SIERA, 29.8% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate, and he's generally done a good job of suppressing hard contact, resulting in a pristine 3.10 xERA.

But what really puts him over the top on Wednesday is his matchup versus Kansas City. Against right-handed pitching, the Royals' active roster owns the league's second-worst wRC+ (85) and third-worst strikeout rate (24.9%). Putting it all together, KC has the night's lowest implied team total (3.36), and Lopez is arguably the slate's top arm.

Justin Steele ($9,700) doesn't have an elite strikeout rate (22.3%), but he could still get the job done in a plus spot versus the Brewers. Despite the lack of punchouts, the left-hander has been excellent in other areas, shaving his walk rate to just 5.6% this season while continuing to induce grounders at a high clip (51.3%). He's consistently limited hard contact over his young career, and that's been the case this season, resulting in a stellar 3.01 xERA.

Steele should have an easier time generating Ks against Milwaukee, too, as the Brewers' active roster owns a 26.5% strikeout rate versus lefties. Perhaps the one thing that could hold the southpaw back is a pitch count that fluctuates wildly from start to start, though he did reach 96 pitches his last time out.

In a tough draw against Arizona, Kodai Senga ($9,700) is more likely to bust than not, but on a slate lacking pitchers with high strikeout rates, his 28.5% clip stands out. While an ugly 13.0% walk rate tends to hold Senga back, his top-three scores of the season are 58, 55, and 49 FanDuel points, so he can still get there every now and then.

The Diamondbacks' active roster has the third-lowest strikeout rate versus righties (19.6%), which is less than ideal, but Senga's proven he can pile up the punchouts in difficult matchups this season, and it's more a matter of whether he can limit the free passes.

Other than Lopez and Senga, Lance Lynn ($8,400) is the only other guy with an above-average strikeout rate (26.9%), but he has a brutal matchup against Toronto. Although there is a massive gap between Lynn's 6.47 ERA and 3.88 SIERA, he's really struggled to keep the ball in the park, and even if we chalk some of that up to bad luck behind an inflated 21.0% homer-to-fly-ball rate, it's a problem that's persisted all season.

The good news for Lynn is that he could fare better against a predominantly right-handed Blue Jays lineup. Not only have the vast majority of home runs come against left-handed sticks, but Lynn's strikeout rate jumps up to an elite 30.1% in same-sided matchups. Note that there's rain expected in Chicago, though, so that's something to monitor later in the day.

Hitting Breakdown

The Atlanta Braves have a slate-high 5.49 implied team total, and it's easy to see why when we look at right-hander Cal Quantrill's numbers. Not only does Quantrill have a 5.57 SIERA, but his 12.3% strikeout rate is easily the slate's worst mark. Add in that he doesn't induce many ground balls (38.9%), and we should expect the Braves' bevy of powerful bats to have a field day. It also can't hurt that it's going to be around 85 degrees in Cleveland.

Quantrill's strikeout rate drops to a comical 8.2% clip against righties, so Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,800), Sean Murphy ($3,800), Austin Riley ($3,600), and Marcell Ozuna ($3,200) shouldn't have much trouble making contact tonight. Against lefties, the right-hander's 17.5% strikeout rate still isn't very impressive, though, and it comes alongside a 15.1% walk rate, meaning we can still look to all the usual lefty sticks, as well. Ultimately, it all boils down to stacking this lineup any which way in such a tantalizing spot.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the other obvious stack, coming in with a 5.39 implied team total versus Osvaldo Bido. Through four starts, the righty has amassed a pedestrian 4.44 SIERA and 20.2% strikeout rate, and given his mediocre Triple-A numbers, it's more than likely that his numbers will only get worse.

Early returns show Bido having worse splits versus right-handed sticks, so perhaps we can bump up Mookie Betts ($4,400), Will Smith ($3,600), and J.D. Martinez ($3,800). But given the limited sample, we really shouldn't be too picky here and can freely roster Freddie Freeman ($4,200), Max Muncy ($3,700), or the value lefties lower in the order, too.

Rookie right-hander Alec Marsh is making just his second MLB start, and with strong winds blowing out in Minnesota, this looks like a good time to load up on the Minnesota Twins. Marsh was lit up by the Dodgers in his big league debut last week, and his control was particularly concerning, as he allowed four walks in just four innings. Considering he's held a double-digit walk rate throughout his rise up the minors, this could be an ongoing issue for him.

Additionally, while Marsh demonstrated some strikeout potential before his call-up, his 7.4% swinging-strike rate against L.A. wasn't exactly a great sign, either.

Byron Buxton ($3,500) and Carlos Correa ($3,300) are the headliners, and they're also the only batters with salaries cracking $3,000. That offers up a ton of value for this stack, with Max Kepler ($2,800) and Joey Gallo ($2,700) being two of the better power options.

There are quite a few other offenses with promising implied team totals, including the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, and New York Mets.

For the Rangers and Red Sox, neither team has a standout matchup, but their appeal comes from some hitter-friendly weather at Fenway Park, which is likely why this game has one of the highest over/unders of the day (10.0). Right-hander Brayan Bello has been one of Boston's better pitchers this season and owns an impressive 57.2% ground-ball rate, but the Rangers' lefties might be able to take advantage of a 4.66 xFIP and 16.1% strikeout rate in that split. While Jon Gray has mostly been solid for Texas, he has an unremarkable 4.49 SIERA and has been knocked around in two of his last three starts.

The Reds will face Josiah Gray, who enters with a meh 21.0% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate despite better results in 2023. Regression should hit him hard versus left-handed batters, against whom he's posted a 5.04 xFIP.

The D-backs' offense could flourish if the bad version of Senga shows up. He's issued fewer than three walks in just 4 of his 15 starts. On the other side of that game, the Mets will get left-hander Tommy Henry, who has posted a 5.14 SIERA, 17.0% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate, and 37.9% ground-ball rate this season.