FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 4/14/23

We're jumping up to 12 games for Friday's main slate, but despite the plethora of pitchers to choose between, this isn't exactly a night where we have a bevy of aces to choose from. The good news is that means we have no shortage of stacks to roll with for our bats, so don't be afraid to spread things out in tournaments.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

You know it's a unique slate when a guy with two MLB starts is one of the top options, but that's what we have in Kodai Senga ($10,800) tonight.

Senga has been impressive in those two outings, though, as he's allowed just 2 earned runs across 11 1/3 innings while logging a 31.1% strikeout rate and 32.8% called-plus-swinging-strike rate. He's also produced a promising 52.0% ground-ball rate. It wasn't the toughest test -- both starts were against Miami -- but he still deserves credit for finding success in a repeat matchup.

The righty hasn't been perfect, though, as a 13.3% walk rate is a bit worrisome, and a lucky .208 BABIP has contributed to his success.

It remains to be seen where Senga's numbers will end up over the long haul, but most preseason projections pegged him for a 25-26% strikeout rate and 7-9% walk rate, so these early returns haven't completely come out of nowhere.

The 30-year-old will surely have an adjustment period as he gets acclimated stateside, but that's less likely to come against tonight's opponent. The Athletics' active roster has the second-worst wRC+ versus righties (82) going back to last season, and bookmakers are giving them the night's lowest implied team total (3.34). Senga's maxed out at 90 pitches to this point, but that's less of an issue on a slate like tonight.

That's because it's simply hard to get excited about the alternatives, whether it's due to matchup and/or recent form. Nestor Cortes ($10,300) has both of those factors going against him, but he's probably still the next-best guy to consider.

The left-hander is coming off two straight strong campaigns, and while the results have been there in 2023, the underlying numbers have been pretty underwhelming. Behind a 2.61 ERA lies a 5.06 SIERA and 19.0% strikeout rate, neither of which will get us super excited in general, let alone at his salary.

But it's too early to be overly concerned with Cortes, and last year's 3.48 SIERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate should emerge over the long haul. While the Twins' active roster was a scary matchup for left-handers last season, they have the slate's second-lowest implied team total (3.69), which is an encouraging sign. Similar to Senga, Cortes has topped out at 91 pitches so far, so we might not see him go much beyond that tonight.

Drew Rasmussen ($11,200) deserves a mention after his hot start, but man, this is a sky-high salary for a guy who produced a 21.4% strikeout rate last year. Make no mistake, he's been outstanding this year, striking out batters at a 35.7% clip without allowing a single earned run or walk. But he did that against the Nationals and Athletics, and this is a huge step up in competition against the Blue Jays.

Add in that Rasmussen has only gone 66 and 83 pitches in his starts, and I'm not sure we can bank on another ceiling performance. I won't fault anyone for rostering Rasmussen on this kind of slate, but the case is there to pass.

Due to the meh-ness (Is that a word?) of this pitching slate, you might just want to skip all the high salaries and jump down to the likes of Charlie Morton ($9,000) and Luis Garcia ($8,900), two guys with good track records but have performed poorly in 2023.

If we had the 2022 version of Morton who posted a 3.48 SIERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, and 8.7% walk rate in 2022, we'd be thrilled to have him tonight. Unfortunately, what we've gotten so far is a 5.42 SIERA, 13.5% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate instead, and at 39 years old, there's always the chance that this is just who he is now.

Still, the velocity's been there, and Morton started off slowly last year, so we might have to bite the bullet and roll the dice in a plus matchup against Kansas City. The Royals' active roster has the third-worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching from 2022 onward. Morton also logged 104 pitches in his last start, so he has a longer leash than the other guys we've gone through. Good luck to us.

Garcia might be the more appealing of these two, if only because he's 26 years old. Like Morton, last year's 3.77 SIERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, and 7.3% walk rate look mighty inviting, but we've seen him shelled for a 5.36 SIERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, and 11.1% walk rate in his two 2023 outings. His velocity has been a tick lower, which is a slight concern, as well.

The matchup checks out, though. The Rangers' active roster owns a 91 wRC+ and 24.4% strikeout rate versus righties since the start of 2022, and that's roughly where they've been this year. Garcia is yet another guy who will likely hover around 90 pitches on Friday night.

Finally, if you want to really get crazy, Brady Singer ($8,400) is a contrarian pick for large-field tournaments.

Yes, Singer hasn't been great and Atlanta is a frightening opponent -- but the Braves' active roster actually has the third-highest strikeout rate against righties (24.1%) going back to last season. Michael Wacha ($9,600) of all people logged 10 strikeouts against them last week. Chances are Singer's struggles continue against a tough team, but he put up a solid 24.2% strikeout rate in 2022, so it isn't the wildest thought to include him as a low-rostered dart throw.

Hitting Breakdown

I'm not sure I've written about the Cleveland Guardians yet this season, but here they are with Friday night's highest implied team total (5.18), and the weather is looking promising for bats at Nationals Park.

They're taking on Trevor Williams, who's posted a 16.3% strikeout rate through two starts and has already coughed up a pair of home runs in just 10 1/2 innings. That's a good sign already for Cleveland, but what should really excite us is attacking Williams with left-handed batters. In 2022, he had a 5.27 xFIP and 8.8% strikeout rate while allowing 1.62 home runs per 9 innings in the split. Jackpot.

The Guardians should have plenty of lefties and switch-hitters for us to choose between, with Jose Ramirez ($3,600) leading the way as always. Josh Naylor ($2,600) and Andres Gimenez ($3,500) are two of the better power options, and Steven Kwan ($3,200) is a stolen base threat out of the leadoff spot. Josh Bell ($2,200) and Will Brennan ($2,200) give us a pair of punts with the platoon advantage, though it's worth noting that Bell is in a notable slump to begin the year with a 78.8% ground-ball rate.

On the other hand, the New York Yankees are a pretty standard stacking entry, and they should be able to do some damage against right-hander Louie Varland.

Varland logged five big league starts in 2022, and while he got solid results, he only managed a 19.8% strikeout rate while allowing a 37.2% hard-hit rate and 41.0% fly-ball rate. He's also short on experience at even the Triple-A level (five career starts), though he's been dominant in those starts with a strikeout rate well over 30%, so he might possess more firepower than he showed at the top level last year.

But in the limited sample we have, this looks like a spot to side with the Bronx Bombers, and that's backed by a healthy 4.81 implied team total. Nab the usual studs in the heart of the order, and guys like DJ LeMahieu ($3,000), Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,400), and a surprisingly red-hot Franchy Cordero ($3,100) come in at lower salaries.

As of this writing, the New York Mets have just the 10th-highest implied team total (4.66), but they're one of my favorites on the board versus James Kaprielian.

Kaprielian has been lit up in back-to-back starts, which includes allowing 4 home runs in just 9 2/3 innings off a 46.9% fly-ball rate and 50.0% hard-hit rate. He hasn't been getting a ton of strikeouts (22.0%) and is walking too many guys (10.0%), too. Even better, the right-hander wasn't great against lefties (4.89 xFIP; 14.6% strikeout rate) or righties (5.25 xFIP; 19.5% strikeout rate) in 2022, giving us the perfect stacking cocktail to work with.

Pete Alonso ($3,800) is the obvious one-off here, and then Francisco Lindor ($3,600) and Starling Marte ($3,400) bring some power-speed upside. Brandon Nimmo ($3,000) is a value out of the leadoff slot, and everyone in the bottom half of the order comes in at salaries below $3,000.

This a pretty loaded slate for offense, with teams like the Cardinals, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mariners also sporting higher implied team totals. In terms of matchup, Seattle is the most intriguing against Austin Gomber, a lefty who's struggled with home runs dating back to 2021. Last season, he allowed 1.75 home runs per 9 innings to righties with just an 18.0% strikeout rate.

Finally, the Orioles don't have a particularly high implied team total, and hopefully, that lets them fall through the cracks against Mike Clevinger. Clevinger has an 18.4% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate, and 21.9% ground-ball rate this season, and he was thoroughly mediocre in 2022 with a 4.49 SIERA and 18.8% strikeout rate.