MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 4/12/23: Will Wind Impact the Aces in San Francisco?

Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.

Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.

Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

Over 13.0 (-112)

It's a second straight day where a Coors Field over is getting a lower percentage of bets (48%) than the over (52%). I don't understand it, but I'll take the value adjustment.

This number is massive, but as we saw in yesterday's 15-run affair, it doesn't really matter if both offenses get going, and both have excellent chances.

The Cardinals get the latest crack at Jose Urena, who appears not long for the Rockies' rotation. Urena's 9.01 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is one of the highest I've ever seen in a multi-start sample, and his paltry 2.9% strikeout rate combined with a 20.6% walk rate put ducks on the pond constantly.

Colorado will get their swipes at the historically serviceable Jack Flaherty, but Flaherty's 1.80 ERA doesn't tell the story whatsoever. His SIERA nearly matches Urena (8.81), and his 15.6% strikeout rate is just far too low at a place handing out free hits as is.

Plus, it's over 80 degrees in Denver today with winds blowing out. The number is massive, but 72% of the handle is backing a potential shootout for a reason.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks ML (-124)

First impressions can be tough to shake, and I just haven't seen enough out of Janson Junk to overcome my poor one from 2021.

Junk posted a 4.81 SIERA with a 14.6% strikeout rate that year in just four appearances, and despite mixed results in a limited sample since then, he continues to flounder in AAA. Junk held a 5.31 xFIP in 2022, and it's 5.11 through two appearances in the minors thus far. He's now with Milwaukee and set to make a spot start today.

I've been far more encouraged by Arizona's Drey Jameson -- despite some uncertainty as he continues to stretch out to a full-time starter. Jameson had a 3.27 SIERA in limited work last fall, and while his mark this year thus far (4.87) is much higher, it also came exclusively against the Dodgers and Padres. He'll draw his weakest foe today.

Like the game at Coors Field, we've got a betting split here, too. Despite receiving just 39% of overall tickets, the Snakes are getting 61% of the total moneyline amount wagered. We'll follow the cash.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

Under 7.5 (-122)

This is a perfect example of an overreaction to the weather -- versus an example like the earlier game where it helped.

The marine air at AT&T Park led to the fourth-lowest home-run factor of any park last year, so the modest outward wind is only so much of a help when aces are wild between Los Angeles and San Francisco in this one.

Clayton Kershaw will get the nod for L.A. and has -- unsurprisingly -- been stellar to start the year. Kershaw's 3.15 SIERA and 27.1% strikeout rate will absolutely get the job done despite a hard-hit rate allowed (40.6%) that's a bit higher than you'd hope. It'll help that the Giants' putrid 48 wRC+ against lefties this season is the second-worst mark in MLB.

Those Giants will send Logan Webb to the mound, and he appears ready for the difficult challenge the Dodgers bring. His SIERA (2.84) and strikeout rate (31.5%) are both lower than Kershaw's.

This under is my favorite play on today's slate.