FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 9/29/21
We have another slate with quality arms to choose from, though the top stacking options dry up more quickly for 13 games. The Boston Red Sox have the highest implied total by a wide margin this evening.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Max Scherzer ($11,500): Scherzer doesn't have the easiest draw versus the Padres, so it's a credit to his excellence to see the opposing offense showing a paltry 3.05 implied total. In 10 starts with the Dodgers, Scherzer has posted a 2.53 SIERA, 35.7% strikeout rate, and 3.4% walk rate, producing at least 40 FanDuel points eight times over that stretch and over 60 points on three occasions. Despite the slate-high salary, Mad Max is absolutely worth it if you can fit him in.
Frankie Montas ($9,900): There may be bigger names on the slate than Montas, but he's been putting up some pretty strong numbers himself lately, producing a 3.63 SIERA, 29.2% strikeout rate, and 8.6% walk rate dating back to the start of July. Montas' consistent workload also goes in his favor, as he's exceeded six innings in six of his last seven starts. To top it all off, he gets a plus matchup against Seattle, whose active roster owns a modest 93 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,800): In his most recent start, Eovaldi completely face-planted in a crucial game against the Yankees, coming away with a horrific -13 FanDuel points. That may not inspire confidence, but he has a much easier matchup versus Baltimore this time around, and the Red Sox badly need a win after losing four straight. Despite that misstep, Eovaldi is another pitcher who's otherwise performed well late in the season, recording a 3.27 SIERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate from July onward. The Orioles' active roster owns a 25.2% strikeout rate versus righties this year, too.
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox were a major disappointment on Tuesday, but they should be a popular stack against the Orioles again tonight, as they check in a slate-high 5.71 implied total. They face another mediocre lefty starter in Zac Lowther, who's shown little to scare us across 24 2/3 innings, submitting a 4.67 SIERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate, and 41.9% ground-ball rate.
Between Lowther and a shoddy Baltimore bullpen to follow, Boston's bats ought to be poised to bounce back. All the same righties as yesterday are core options between J.D. Martinez ($3,900), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700), Hunter Renfroe ($3,600), Enrique Hernandez ($3,600), and Bobby Dalbec ($3,000).
Minnesota Twins: Despite Boston's dud last night, they ought to be the chalk stack tonight because the implied totals really begin to drop off quickly after them. One of the few exceptions to that is Minnesota (5.08 implied total), who's in a solid spot versus Casey Mize and a poor Detroit bullpen.
Mize will probably only throw a handful of innings -- he hasn't exceeded three in any of his September starts -- but the Twins ought to take advantage of their limited time with him, as Mize has a pretty meh 19.2% strikeout rate for the season. Lefties get the edge here, with Mize coughing up 2.16 dingers per nine innings in the split off a 48.3% hard-hit rate and 37.5% fly-ball rate.
But after that, both righties and lefties get to enjoy the rest of the game against a relief pitching group that's posted the third-worst xFIP (5.07) over the last 30 days behind only Baltimore and Arizona.
But with most of the game coming against the bullpen, Byron Buxton ($4,000) and Josh Donaldson ($3,200) are still top options, and high-power, high-strikeout guys like Mitch Garver ($3,000) and Miguel Sano ($2,600) are always tournament viable.
San Francisco Giants: After those two teams, we mostly have a mix of good offenses in neutral-to-tough matchups or bad offenses in good matchups. Yay?
Of the good offenses, the Dodgers and Giants lean more towards neutral spots -- and both clearly have a lot left to play for -- but the Giants arguably get the slight edge. Los Angeles is facing Ryan Weathers, but it figures to ultimately be a mishmash of Padres relievers, while San Francisco gets low-strikeout righty Merrill Kelly and that ugly D-backs bullpen I mentioned earlier.
Kelly's showing a pedestrian 4.38 SIERA and 19.6% strikeout rate this year, and other than a low walk rate (5.7%), he doesn't have much in the way of standout skills.
You can bump up lefties who have the platoon advantage, but in reality, you can probably roll with just about anyone here. Evan Longoria ($3,200), Brandon Crawford ($3,700), Kris Bryant ($3,900), LaMonte Wade Jr ($3,300), and Mike Yastrzemski ($3,300) all have double-digit barrel rates this season, showing just how deep the power goes in this lineup.