FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 9/21/21
We hop back up to 11 games on tonight's main slate, and while the pitching selection is filled with quality arms, you can reasonably poke holes in just about all of them. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at Coors Field, so they naturally headline the night's potential stacks, and plenty of other upper-tier offenses are also in good spots.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Brandon Woodruff ($10,200): Woodruff is easily the top talent on the board, but the only issue is he appears to be on an innings cap these days, as he hasn't exceeded six innings in a start since way back on July 25th. He's still been allowed to crack 100 pitches on some nights, so the quality start is still very much in play, but chances are we'll need a really efficient outing from Woodruff for him to post an elite score.
Of course, he's still fully capable of doing that, entering the evening with a 3.33 SIERA, 29.6% strikeout rate, and 6.3% walk rate. St. Louis isn't a high-strikeout matchup, but they're a below-average offense versus righties, with their active roster displaying a 93 wRC+ in the split. The Cardinals have a slate-low 3.32 implied total.
Like Ray, Manoah was brilliant against Tampa in his last appearance (64 FanDuel points), as there's plenty of swing-and-miss in this lineup (24.0% strikeout rate versus righties), though it's also worth noting that they sat some of their top bats in that game. The danger is that the Rays also have a scary 113 wRC+ in the split, so this could easily go the other way like it did on Monday for Ray.
While Manoah has predictably had his ups and downs as a rookie, it's definitely been more good than bad through a 3.90 SIERA, 26.6% strikeout rate, and 8.1% walk rate, and pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field could also help him limit the damage. Overall, though, Manoah is a boom-or-bust play for tournaments.
Jordan Montgomery ($8,800): Montgomery owns fairly average marks across the board, but it's his matchup versus the Rangers that puts him on our radar. As I mentioned yesterday for fellow lefty Nestor Cortes, Texas' active roster owns a league-worst wRC+ against southpaws (79), and their lack of punch is further reflected by their paltry 3.39 implied total.
Although Montgomery isn't someone we usually expect a high ceiling from because of his good-but-not-great 24.8% strikeout rate, he's coming off a 12-strikeout outing against Baltimore and has reached pitch counts in the high 90s in two of his last three.
Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are getting propped up with a 6.06 implied total at Coors Field, so they're naturally the first place to start on offense.
It's the same old conundrum with Antonio Senzatela in these Coors games, though. Senzatela has a beatable 16.4% strikeout rate but doesn't help anywhere else due to a 51.8% ground-ball rate and 4.8% walk rate. He's only allowed 0.75 home runs per nine innings this season, and for what it's worth, he's actually enjoyed better results at home versus the road.
Does that mean we should fade the Dodgers? Not necessarily because they're, you know, the Dodgers, but it also means they aren't quite the must-play as that massive total would suggest.
These LA bats are also seeing a big salary boost nearly all around, with Gavin Lux ($3,100) possibly being the only value in the entire lineup. Max Muncy ($4,100) is the top power bat here, leading the team in both ISO and barrel rate, but other than that, you can probably just pick any of these guys based on how they fit with your secondary stack and/or one-offs.
Houston Astros: The Astros make an appearance again, this time in a plum spot against left-hander Packy Naughton. Naughton only has 16 2/3 innings of work to go off of, but he hasn't done anything to suggest he's ready for the big leagues, producing a 5.25 SIERA, 14.3% strikeout rate, and 10.4% walk rate.
Naughton has managed some respectable numbers versus lefties, albeit over a small sample, but it's only natural to start with the righties here anyway, with Jose Altuve ($4,200), Alex Bregman ($3,900), and Carlos Correa ($3,700) being the obvious first choices.
For values, Yuli Gurriel ($3,000) remains in the heart of the order at a low salary, and two of Chas McCormick ($2,200), Jake Meyers ($2,200), and Jose Siri ($2,500) should find their way into the lineup.
For the year, he's posted strong marks against righties, but that hasn't been the case against lefties, displaying a 4.85 xFIP and 16.5% strikeout rate in the split. That places Freddie Freeman ($3,900) and Ozzie Albies ($3,800) at the front of the line and makes Eddie Rosario ($2,800) a solid value.
The Diamondbacks' bullpen has also recorded the league's worst xFIP over the past 30 days, too, so righties like Jorge Soler ($3,200), Austin Riley ($3,400), Adam Duvall ($3,600), and Dansby Swanson ($2,900) should also be able to get in on the fun.