MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 9/24/16
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. This article is for the main slate, which starts at 7:05 p.m. EST and features 10 games.
Pitchers to Target
Clayton Kershaw ($10,600 on FanDuel): Kershaw is our top-ranked pitcher today by a wide margin for his home matchup with the Colorado Rockies. Our projections tab him to score at least seven more FanDuel points than any other hurler. Kershaw has made just three starts since coming off the disabled list, but he was dominant in his last outing, going six innings and allowing just four baserunners while fanning seven. Colorado ranks 24th in road wOBA (.303), and Kershaw is limiting hitters to a meager .164 wOBA in his home starts this season. The Rockies' 2.29 implied total is the lowest of the slate.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,000): Bumgarner has a superb matchup against the San Diego Padres at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres rank last in wOBA (.296) and 29th in wRC+ (85), and San Diego has a lowly 2.9 implied total. Bumgarner has been on fire in September, posting a 33.0% strikeout rate and 2.9% walk rate. The only knock here is that Bumgarner is more expensive than Kershaw, and our projections see him faring quite a bit worse than the Los Angeles Dodgers' ace.
Wei-Yin Chen ($8,000): Bumgarner and Kershaw will likely hog ownership tonight, but if you're looking for a pivot off those two, Chen is a decent option. The Miami Marlins' southpaw gets a home meeting with the Atlanta Braves, who rank last in ISO (.128), last in homers (113) and 27th in wOBA (.303). Chen's strikeout rate jumps to 20.0% in his home starts this season, and he has an insanely low 1.5% walk rate in an injury-shortened second half.
Hitters to Target
Brian Dozier ($3,800): Dozier has a lovely home matchup with lefty Ariel Miranda. Against left-handed pitchers this season, Dozier owns a .415 wOBA with a 41.4% hard-hit rate and 56.3% fly-ball rate. Overall in the second half, Dozier is making hard contact 43.8% of the time, and Miranda is allowing a 37.9% hard-hit rate to right-handed hitters.
Joey Votto ($4,100): Against right-handed pitchers this season, Votto is putting up a .421 wOBA with a 42.2% hard-hit rate, and his strikeout rate tumbles to 16.5% against righties. Votto will see right-hander Taylor Jungmann tonight. The sample size is small -- Jungmann has thrown just 22 2/3 frames in the bigs this season -- but he's been pretty terrible, recording a 13.9% strikeout rate with a 12.0% walk rate.
Robbie Grossman ($2,800): In 113 plate appearances this year against lefties, Grossman is sporting a .447 wOBA, which puts him in a good spot against Miranda. As we covered with Dozier, the Seattle Mariners' southpaw is surrendering a 37.9% hard-hit rate to right-handed sticks, and the Minnesota Twins boast a decent 4.52 implied total. As an added bonus, Grossman hit third last night, and he'll be a crazy-good bargain if he's up in the lineup again today.
Adam Duvall ($2,400): Duvall boasts a 39.4% hard-hit rate and 46.9% fly-ball rate against righties this year, and he's been hitting fourth in the Cincinnati Reds' lineup. It's rare we can get those kind of numbers and a cleanup hitter at this price. Duvall's hard-hit rate in September is 45.8%, and the clash with the Milwaukee Brewers will take place at Miller Park, which ranks 4th in park factor and 3rd in home run factor.