NFL Week 6 Power Rankings: The Bills Are Looking Like the Real Deal
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after five weeks.
The Bottom 8
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 0-5 | -9.86 | 32 | 0 | 1.7% | 0.7 |
| Jets | 1-4 | -8.93 | 31 | -3 | 1.8% | 0.9 |
| Lions | 0-5 | -8.30 | 30 | 1 | 0.1% | 0.7 |
| Falcons | 2-3 | -6.90 | 29 | 1 | 1.9% | 0.8 |
| Texans | 1-4 | -6.62 | 28 | 1 | 12.4% | 0.5 |
| Dolphins | 1-4 | -6.41 | 27 | -4 | 8.7% | 1.2 |
| Patriots | 2-3 | -5.17 | 26 | 0 | 10.7% | 0.9 |
| Raiders | 3-2 | -5.13 | 25 | 2 | 13.4% | 1.1 |
It wasn't the Jacksonville Jaguars after all who first parted ways with their head coach but rather the Las Vegas Raiders, who will now be led by interim coach Rich Bisaccia. The Raiders' 3-0 start didn't fool our algorithm, and they've rated poorly for the full season. They now have dropped two straight games by double digits, allowing us and our nERD ratings to feel vindicated.
The Miami Dolphins managed to drop another game, this time by 28 points. They now have a 1-point win back in Week 1 and have since followed it up with losses by 35, 3, 10, and 28 points, the two blowouts coming against top-three teams in our nERD rating.
The Next 9
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 1-4 | -4.26 | 24 | 1 | 2.2% | 0.7 |
| Titans | 3-2 | -3.34 | 23 | -1 | 56.4% | 0.8 |
| Football Team | 2-3 | -2.79 | 22 | -1 | 5.9% | 1.0 |
| Bears | 3-2 | -2.38 | 21 | 3 | 13.6% | 1.0 |
| Colts | 1-4 | -2.35 | 20 | -1 | 41.3% | 1.6 |
| Bengals | 3-2 | -1.72 | 19 | -1 | 30.8% | 1.7 |
| Eagles | 2-3 | -0.53 | 18 | 2 | 29.2% | 1.6 |
| Seahawks | 2-3 | -0.27 | 17 | 0 | 19.2% | 1.7 |
| Broncos | 3-2 | -0.17 | 16 | -1 | 42.0% | 1.7 |
None of these teams who ultimately rate as below-average squads jockeyed more than three slots this week, and only one -- the Chicago Bears -- moved more than two spots in our power rankings. Despite the 3-2 record and the fairly large movement at this point in the season, their playoff odds sit at a lowly 13.6%, due in large part to the Green Bay Packers sitting at 4-1 and the 2-3 Minnesota Vikings rating out extremely well in our adjusted metrics. Chicago's next five games are all against top-half opponents by nERD, which is why their expected wins over the next three games sit so low at 1.0.
The Tennessee Titans still hold a better-than-not shot at making the playoffs (56.4%). They face the red-hot Buffalo Bills in Tennessee this week and, in total, face four top-10 opponents in their next five before the schedule lightens up with three straight bottom-10 opponents from Weeks 11 through 14.
The Above-Average 6
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 4-1 | 0.94 | 15 | -5 | 90.3% | 1.5 |
| 49ers | 2-3 | 1.00 | 14 | -1 | 29.0% | 1.6 |
| Browns | 3-2 | 1.15 | 12 | 2 | 79.6% | 1.5 |
| Packers | 4-1 | 1.15 | 12 | 4 | 87.6% | 1.5 |
| Steelers | 2-3 | 2.31 | 11 | 1 | 33.3% | 1.8 |
| Saints | 3-2 | 2.41 | 10 | -1 | 52.8% | 1.7 |
These six teams are sitting with positive nERDs, yes, but they are nERDs lower than 2.5 points.
The Baltimore Ravens, despite moving to 4-1 after an incredible Monday Night Football comeback, fell five spots in our rankings, but it shouldn't matter in the short term. Their playoff odds sit at 90.3%. They face just three top-10 opponents the rest of the season, so they may not rate out as well as teams with tougher schedules unless their margin of victory climbs, but they should be in the postseason nonetheless.
The Packers are 4-0 since Week 1's outlier loss to the New Orleans Saints, who are since 2-2. Green Bay's win odds have shifted from 64.2% after the opening-week loss to 87.6%.
The 9 Field-Goal (or Better) Favorites
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 2-3 | 3.29 | 9 | -4 | 29.4% | 1.3 |
| Panthers | 3-2 | 3.53 | 8 | 3 | 57.5% | 2.0 |
| Chiefs | 2-3 | 4.33 | 7 | 1 | 84.5% | 2.2 |
| Chargers | 4-1 | 5.74 | 6 | 1 | 93.3% | 2.2 |
| Cardinals | 5-0 | 6.55 | 5 | 1 | 92.6% | 2.2 |
| Rams | 4-1 | 7.27 | 4 | 0 | 91.7% | 2.6 |
| Buccaneers | 4-1 | 8.10 | 3 | 0 | 93.6% | 2.2 |
| Cowboys | 4-1 | 10.36 | 2 | 0 | 93.7% | 2.5 |
| Bills | 4-1 | 12.05 | 1 | 0 | 99.7% | 2.7 |
There is some pretty clear separation at the top of the league. Two 2-3 teams find themselves inside our top nine -- the teams who we'd expect to beat an average team by at least a field goal on a neutral field. But we've also got five 4-1 teams and the lone 5-0 team sitting in the top six. Just what we'd expect.
Notably, the Carolina Panthers moved back up into the top eight despite a three-point loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. They'll be tested next week against the Minnesota Vikings in Carolina but then face three teams outside the top 24 after that.
The Bills really deserve some attention after getting to the 4-1 mark. They have had some easy wins -- against teams currently ranked 27th, 22nd, and 28th in nERD -- and a loss to a Pittsburgh Steelers team that ranked 7th. But they've now got four straight double-digit wins (by 35, 22, 40, and 18). Even with opponent adjustments, the model at numberFire views them as 12.1-point favorites against an average team at a neutral site. They deserve the top spot.
