4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 11
Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Alvin Kamara. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Week 11 lineups.
Alex Smith, QB, Washington Football Team
DraftKings Price: $5,300
Projected Points: 17.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.23
Jameis Winston also fits the bill here, but he's in a much more obvious spot and could be rostered at a high rate in cash and tournaments. [Editor's note: The New Orleans Saints named Taysom Hill their starting quarterback for the week.] Alex Smith makes for a nice low-cost pivot at a $600 discount in a matchup you don't need to shy away from.
At home against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Washington Football Team is favored by 1.5 points in a game with a 24.0-point total at FanDuel Sportsbook. That is a whole 4.0 points above Washington's season average -- and for good reason. The Bengals' defense allows 27.8 points per game with 21 of the 28 touchdowns given up coming via the pass. So it's not surprising to see them ranked 28th in efficiency as a pass defense and, according to our advanced stats page, 27th in DraftKings points allowed to the position.
Also working in Smith's favor is the mismatch on the other side, between the Bengals' bottom tier offensive line and the Football Team's fierce defensive front. Sacks and turnovers from the Cincy offense could lead to more possessions and great field position for Smith and company, potentially leading to multiple scores for the Comeback Player of the Year candidate. Our model has him as the fourth-best point-per-dollar play at the quarterback spot.
La'Mical Perine, RB, New York Jets
DraftKings Price: $4,400
Projected Points: 11.2
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.54
At the start of the new week, there appeared to be two great value options in Salvon Ahmed and La'Mical Perine. However, Ahmed could see his role diminish with Matt Breida set to return to the Miami backfield, putting the New York Jets' running back at the top of that list.
Perine has not been a monster performer in 2020. The 22-year-old has dealt with inconsistency in coach Adam Gase's running back rotation as well as a poor offense. For those reasons, he has found himself limited to 169 rushing yards and only 47 attempts on the ground. Still, Pro Football Reference shows that he's played at least 46% of snaps in each of the last four games, topping out at 70% in Week 7 against the Buffalo Bills. He manufactured 7.6 DraftKings points on his 14 opportunities in that contest, but outside of the numbers, the flashes of talent have been there on the field.
The chatter is also in Perine's favor, as the Jets said Perine would be more involved going forward, reiterating that note for a second time in two weeks. He'll go up against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are solid D yet are outside the top 10 against running backs. They've also allowed 23.5% of targets to backs, so in a negative game script, Perine could reap the benefits of some catches and targets. But reserve your exposure to tournaments only.
Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings Price: $3,700
Projected Points: 10.8
Projected Value: 2.92
There are a number of great, affordable options at the receiver spot this week. For my money, though, Michael Gallup carries the biggest upside. With Dallas expecting Andy Dalton to return from a concussion and the reserve COVID list, their offense should look a little bit more like an above-average unit against the Minnesota Vikings. The oddsmakers have followed suit, giving the Cowboys a not-horrible 20.5-point implied on the road in the dome.
There is a strong possibility that Dallas blows past that total. Minnesota is 12th in defensive efficiency, but they've allowed more than 27 points per game and more than two passing touchdowns a game. Prior to facing the Chicago Bears on Monday night, the Vikings had allowed back-to-back games of 400 total yards and 290-plus passing yards. Two weeks ago it was Danny Amendola busting out for seven catches on 10 targets, and that came after a seven-catch, three-score performance for Davante Adams the week before. In total, Minnesota is surrendering the fifth-most DK points to receivers.
Gallup has been hot and cold all year, but he boasts the highest average depth of target of all Dallas receivers. Plus, the salary is easy to like.
Austin Hooper, TE, Cleveland Browns
DraftKings Price: $3,900
Projected Points: 10.2
Projected Value: 2.61
It's back to the well this week after a disappointing showing last game against the Houston Texans. Austin Hooper caught just one of two targets in his return to action, but that's caused his salary to stay exactly the same. And that's where we can take advantage.
Last week's dud was a bit of fluke. The game was heavily influenced by the wind and weather in Cleveland (and you'll have to watch out for that closer to kick this week), and with the Browns relying on the run, Baker Mayfield attempted a mere 20 passes. For reference, he's averaged about 28 passes per game in his other eight starts, which has translated to 5.5 targets a game for Hooper. In the three games prior, Hooper had tallied nearly eight targets per game, partially influenced by the absence of Odell Beckham.
Expect Hooper to get back to his normal production against the Philadelphia Eagles. This week's visitors have struggled to corral tight ends, with 23.6% of the receiving yards they've allowed going to the position, according to JJ Zachariason. We project Hooper to exceed double-digits DK points and return top-five value among tight ends.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.