Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 17

numberFire has no shortage of tools -- lineup generators, fantasy projections, and more -- to help you round out your rosters, but some extra prep never hurt anyone. So, here are some notes to know about each and every game on FanDuel's main slate for Week 17.

The Slate

NY Jets at Buffalo
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Washington at Dallas
Green Bay at Detroit
LA Chargers at Kansas City
Chicago at Minnesota
Miami at New England
Philadelphia at NY Giants
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
New Orleans at Carolina
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Tennessee at Houston
Oakland at Denver
Arizona at LA Rams

Play Types

Core Plays: Players suited for all types of daily fantasy games -- cash games and tournaments -- and players to target when building a main lineup.
Secondary Plays: Players who have good matchups or situations but are overpriced. Or players who are affordable but have tough matchups.
Tournament Plays: Players with paths to production but who are either overpriced or have tough matchups and who rate out with low production floors. Not everybody is in play in DFS, but players without the best prices and matchups still deserve consideration in large-field tournaments.

NY Jets at Buffalo

Matchup NY Jets Buffalo
Over/Under | Spread 36.5 -1.5
Implied Team Total 17.5 18.0
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite 56% 89%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite 31% 78%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 15 9
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 23 7
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 3 21
Playoffs 0.0% 100.0%

Game Overview
The total is really low. The New York Jets are not playoff contenders, and the Buffalo Bills are locked into the 5 seed, yet there are rumblings that the starters will play a bit -- but not the whole game.

NY Jets Offense Notes
- The Jets are not in the playoff hunt but still gave Le'Veon Bell ($7,100) 29 opportunities last week and keep feeding him a solid workload (21.7 opportunities over the past seven games). The Bills have been mostly a middling rushing matchup this season but have clinched the 5 seed and have nothing to gain with a win. That recipe could lead to a big game from Bell, finally.
- Sam Darnold ($7,200) has been a poor passer this year (1.37 total Passing Net Expected Points, good for 0.00 per drop back and shy of the NFL average of 0.09). Buffalo has played as a top-five unit since Week 9, but time against the Bills' backups could give the Jets an easy path to production in Week 17.
- Darnold's post-return target shares: 23.8% for Jamison Crowder ($5,600), 19.9% for Robby Anderson ($5,800), and 13.4% for Bell. Over the past two games with no Demaryius Thomas, the target shares are 35.2% for Crowder, 18.5% for Anderson, 16.7% for Vyncint Smith ($4,900), and 11.1% for Bell.

Buffalo Offense Notes
- The Bills cannot move up or down from the 5 seed and will play a majority of their starters, but the indication that Matt Barkley will play puts a big question mark on this team. It's really not a spot to chase.
- Of note, Devin Singletary ($6,200) played 96.0% of snaps in Week 16, but this offense can't really be trusted. And we also can't load up on the reserves, due to uncertain playing time. It's best to look elsewhere on the 30-team slate.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Le'Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder
Tournament Plays: Robby Anderson

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Matchup Cleveland Cincinnati
Over/Under | Spread 44.5 +2.5
Implied Team Total 23.5 21.0
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog 49% 15%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog 30% 5%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 24 16
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 17 31
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 29 27
Playoffs 0.0% 0.0%

Game Overview
The Cleveland Browns were eliminated from playoff contention with a Week 16 loss, so we'll have to monitor their Week 17 plans closely.

Cleveland Offense Notes
- Baker Mayfield ($7,400) has been fine against bottom-eight pass defenses in three matchups (257.3 yards, 1.7 touchdowns, 1.3 interceptions), but the Cleveland offense isn't one we should really prioritize despite the matchup. The Cincinnati Bengals' pass defense also ranks ninth in Passing Success Rate allowed since Week 9, and Mayfield went for just 192 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions against the Bengals in Week 14.
- With Kareem Hunt ($6,100) in the lineup, the team's target shares have been: 27.7% for Jarvis Landry ($6,800), 26.0% for Odell Beckham ($6,600), and 17.7% for Hunt. Landry (30.6% of the air yards) and Beckham (43.1%) have the only relevant downfield roles, as well.
- Nick Chubb ($7,900) is always in play for a heavy rushing workload, but the expectations for this offense should be kept in check, especially after a disappointing game against this same team a few weeks ago.

Cincinnati Offense Notes
- We know that the Bengals have been eliminated for a while and actually clinched the number-one pick in the draft, so they're free to try, which they have been doing since Andy Dalton ($6,900) returned to the lineup.
- Joe Mixon ($7,300) had 23 opportunities in Week 16 despite the flu and now has 23 or more in four straight games. The Browns' defense is outside the top-20 in both Rushing and Target Success Rate allowed to backs since Week 9. It's a great gig, and Cleveland could bottom out after their elimination.
- The past two weeks without Auden Tate have been kind to Tyler Boyd ($6,600) from a target standpoint, as he has averaged 11.0 per game (26.5%). John Ross ($5,200) is second at 19.3%. Alex Erickson ($5,100; 16.9%) and Tyler Eifert ($4,700; 15.7%) are close behind. Ross has an astounding 20.9-yard average target depth in this span, according to, while averaging 167.5 air yards per game.
- Dalton, since returning, has been below average (0.03 Passing NEP per drop back) but is fixating on Boyd enough to help overcome the efficiency concerns.

Core Plays: Joe Mixon
Secondary Plays: Tyler Boyd, John Ross
Tournament Plays: Andy Dalton, Jarvis Landry

Washington at Dallas

Matchup Washington Dallas
Over/Under | Spread 44.5 -11.0
Implied Team Total 16.75 27.75
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite 61% 18%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite 65% 18%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 29 7
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 29 19
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 26 17
Playoffs 0.0% 33.4%

Game Overview
The Dallas Cowboys need a win and help (in the form of a loss from the Philadelphia Eagles) to make the playoffs. They should be playing to win, but they have offensive concerns of their own.

Washington Offense Notes
- With Dwayne Haskins getting carted off last week, it'll be Case Keenum ($6,800) under center for the Washington offense this week. On 22 attempts last week, Keenum threw 7 to Steven Sims ($6,000), 3 to Terry McLaurin ($6,100), Kelvin Harmon ($5,200), and Chris Thompson ($5,100). Sims had two of four downfield targets and has now seen 21 targets over the past two games and 28 over the past three games. His three-game target share is 31.1%, tops on the team (McLaurin is at 23.3%). The volume certainly is there for Sims. Update: McLaurin has been ruled out, making Sims a pretty intriguing play in Dallas stacks.
- Keenum would be a boost for the offense, as he as actually outperformed the NFL average in both Passing NEP per drop back (0.14) and Passing Success Rate (54.3%) this season. Haskins' marks of -0.11 and 40.3% pale in comparison. Haskins also has taken a sack on 12.1% of his drop backs. Keenum has done so on 5.8%. The offense should move the ball better against a Dallas team that needs a win and help to advance.

Dallas Offense Notes
- The Cowboys need a win and an Eagles loss to make it through, so they should be playing to win.
- Dak Prescott ($8,000) struggled against those Eagles last week while dealing with a shoulder injury. He posted his second game with negative Passing NEP all season. The matchup is great against Washington, yet Prescott's potential inefficiency -- and diversified target shares -- are concerning despite Dallas' need to play well. If Prescott were 100%, he'd be one of the best quarterback plays on the slate, so he's still in consideration. Update: Prescott was not listed on the team's final injury report, so he may -- in fact -- be close to 100%.
- In eight post-bye games, Michael Gallup ($6,500) leads with a 20.6% target share, Amari Cooper ($7,500) is at 20.3%, Jason Witten ($5,600) has 15.2%, and Randall Cobb ($5,200) has 14.9%. Ezekiel Elliott ($8,700) is up to 12.8%. It's pretty spread out. Gallup owns the best downfield role. For the price, he's the best bet this week, followed by Cooper.
- As an 11.0-point favorite, Elliott should have a firm role this weekend in a must-win game. Washington is 22nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs on the year. Elliott rates out as a top-three play among running backs.

Core Plays: Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Michael Gallup
Secondary Plays: Amari Cooper, Jason Witten, Steven Sims
Tournament Plays: Kelvin Harmon

Green Bay at Detroit

Matchup Green Bay Detroit
Over/Under | Spread 43.0 +12.5
Implied Team Total 27.75 15.25
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog 65% 28%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog 37% 29%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 20 8
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 8 26
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 30 19
Playoffs 100.0% 0.0%

Game Overview
The Green Bay Packers can finish anywhere between the 1 and 3 seed in the NFC, so they've got motivation. The Detroit Lions are a mess.

Green Bay Offense Notes
- The Packers have plenty to play for, so they become one of the most promising offenses on the 30-team slate.
- Aaron Rodgers ($8,300), though, has eclipsed 14.42 FanDuel points in only one of his past seven games and has one or zero passing touchdowns in those six games. He is averaging just 193.6 yards and 33.0 attempts in those games.
- Despite the lack of production from Rodgers, Davante Adams ($8,400) has double-digit targets in seven of his past eight games, including 29 the past two weeks for a combined 219 receiving yards. Adams commands a 34.5% target share in the past seven weeks, good for 11.1 targets per game. His workload is elite, and he's worth the salary against a torchable Lions secondary (31st in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers since Week 9.
- Aaron Jones ($8,000) is a key reason for Rodgers' lack of touchdowns, as he has five rushing scores over the past three games and six in the past seven games. Jones also has cleared 17.1 FanDuel points in three straight games. The Lions are a formidable rush defense (13th since Week 9), but Jones is a 12.5-point favorite indoors. Jamaal Williams ($5,100) could sit, making Jones nearly a lock. Update: Williams has been ruled out, so Jones should deserve stud treatment.

Detroit Offense Notes
- David Blough ($6,600) has more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) and owns a per-drop back mark of -0.12 Passing NEP. The Lions' offensive expectations are low for a reason.
- Kenny Golladay ($7,400) has a 28.8% target share in the past two games without Marvin Jones. Danny Amendola ($5,700) is at 24.2%. Golladay has a 42.8% air yards share and 19 targets in this span. He's in play for game stacks, considering his average target depth of 14.4 yards downfield.
- Kerryon Johnson ($4,500) has name appeal at this price but played only 32.0% of the Lions' snaps last week, splitting time and work with Bo Scarbrough ($5,400; 28.0% snap rate). Johnson is a possible game stack punt piece because it won't take much to pay off, but we shouldn't go overboard.

Core Plays: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams
Secondary Plays: Aaron Rodgers
Tournament Plays: Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson

LA Chargers at Kansas City

Matchup LA Chargers Kansas City
Over/Under | Spread 44.5 -8.0
Implied Team Total 18.25 26.25
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite 55% 93%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite 54% 97%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 30 10
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 22 3
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 20 28
Playoffs 0.0% 100.0%

Game Overview
The Kansas City Chiefs can finish between the 2 and 4 seed but most likely will land as the 3 seed. They'll need a New England Patriots loss to finish as the AFC's 2 seed. With New England playing early, the Chiefs could pull the rug out from the offense, making them a risky team this week. The Los Angeles Chargers are, well, not in the picture but can still muck up a game better than most NFL teams.

LA Chargers Offense Notes
- Philip Rivers ($7,400) has 11 interceptions to 9 touchdowns since an offensive coordinator change took effect in Week 9. This is despite league-average efficiency and 288.4 yards per game. Touchdown regression could be coming, but with Rivers, we can never fully trust him.
- Since that coordinator change, the target shares are 25.3% for Keenan Allen ($6,700), 18.0% for Hunter Henry ($6,000), 17.6% for Austin Ekeler ($6,800), 15.0% for Mike Williams ($6,300), and 13.7% for Melvin Gordon ($7,200). Williams leads in downfield targets (40.0%), followed distantly by Henry (20.0%) and Allen (18.0%). While Allen is the only one with bankable volume, Henry is still somewhat in play as a tight end with a claim to a better-than-desperation role.
- Gordon led in snap rate last week over Ekeler, breaking a two-week trend of Ekeler getting more work. Both cleared a 58.9% snap rate, though, and both are involved. Gordon is still my preferred bet, as he has 21 red zone carries since Week 9. Ekeler has 5. Script sets up better for Ekeler to see work, but Gordon did see one more target (seven) than Ekeler (six) last week.

Kansas City Offense Notes
- Patrick Mahomes ($8,600) should be worth the salary if the Chiefs play to win. Since getting Derwin James and Adrian Phillips back, the Chargers are still only 15th in Passing NEP per drop back allowed, 22nd in Passing Success Rate allowed, and 26th in sack rate.
- He's also simply getting work to his primary pass catchers. In four post-bye games, Travis Kelce ($7,500) leads with a 30.8% target share, Tyreek Hill ($8,200) has 21.5%, and Sammy Watkins ($5,600) has 15.4%. The Chargers are 29th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends with a healthier secondary, and Kelce's workload is too good to ignore.
- Damien Williams ($6,400) is affordable and just played 53.0% of snaps in his return last week while LeSean McCoy ($5,700) was a healthy scratch. Williams had 19 opportunities and a firm grasp on the rushing work, putting him in play as a back with a decent enough role for an offense with ostensible motivation.
- Given the risk here, no Chiefs are full core plays, regardless of how good the prospects are for certain players.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams
Tournament Plays: Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Sammy Watkins

Chicago at Minnesota

Matchup Chicago Minnesota
Over/Under | Spread 36.5 -1.0
Implied Team Total 17.75 18.75
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite 52% 88%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite 61% 83%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 14 13
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 12 6
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 6 11
Playoffs 0.0% 100.0%

Game Overview
With the Chicago Bears eliminated and the Minnesota Vikings locked into the 6 seed, we could see some value pop up, but we have enough starters in play that games like this should be mere afterthoughts.

Chicago Offense Notes
- Even with full motivation, we haven't had a ton of reason to load up on Chicago in recent weeks, but there could be an angle here.
- Given the Vikings' plans and from what I can glean from Matt Nagy, the Bears will be using their starters.
- Allen Robinson ($7,800) is priced up but has plenty of tournament potential if running routes against second-stringers. Anthony Miller ($6,700) also doesn't come at much of a discount and is highly volatile. Even without Taylor Gabriel out the past four weeks, Robinson has 30.3% of the targets, Miller has 22.4%, and Javon Wims ($4,500) has 17.5%. Miller has had in-game target shares of 34.2%, 12.9%, 30.0%, and 6.1% -- target totals of 13, 4, 15, and 2.

Minnesota Offense Notes
- Everyone is at risk here, as the Vikings are simply locked into the 6 seed and will treat this like a pseudo bye week. We can do better.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Allen Robinson
Tournament Plays: Anthony Miller, Mitchell Trubisky ($7,400)

Miami at New England

Matchup Miami New England
Over/Under | Spread 45.0 -15.5
Implied Team Total 14.75 30.25
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite 51% 19%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite 51% 18%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 3 4
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 32 1
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 24 8
Playoffs 0.0% 100.0%

Game Overview
The New England Patriots can clinch a bye if the convert on a should-be cakewalk matchup against the now-feisty Miami Dolphins. However, the Patriots' offense has been a DFS headache all season long.

Miami Offense Notes
- The have been DFS-relevant for weeks now, particularly DeVante Parker ($6,900) and Mike Gesicki ($5,900). Each had 12 targets in an overtime game last week. Since Week 10 -- since they lost Preston Williams -- and if we remove an injury-shortened Week 14 for Parker from the team's recent target shares, we see a 25.9% target share and 42.0% air yards share for Parker, both dominant numbers. That's good for 10.7 targets per game. Gesicki has 7.7 of his own, an 18.6% target share. Albert Wilson ($5,600) is at 14.6%. It's a concentrated target tree, and the efficiency has actually been good, too.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,400) has put up 0.07 Passing NEP per drop back since Week 10, just shy of the NFL average (0.09). Fitzpatrick had struggled to convert on touchdowns but paid off last week when he had four touchdown tosses.
- The issue is that New England, the best pass defense in the league, needs to clamp down in order to clinch a first-round bye.

New England Offense Notes
- Tom Brady ($7,600) has had some strange stretches in terms of target depth all season. From Weeks 1 through 5, his aDOT was 7.8 (the NFL average is around 8.0). From Weeks 6 through 11, it was 6.5. In Weeks 12 and 13, it got up to 10.5. But over the past three games, it has been 5.8. Quarterbacks can thrive despite low aDOTs, but it can also easily reduce an offense's ceiling. His three-week efficiency splits are a dreadful -0.11 Passing NEP per drop back with a 38.3% Passing Success Rate. Miami is 32nd in adjusted passing defense, at least.
- The market shares have been messy and inconsistent, too. Over these three games with Mohamed Sanu's ($5,300) snaps back up, the lead target getter has been Julian Edelman ($7,500) at 24.2%, James White ($6,300) at 16.8%, and Sanu at 14.7%. In such a soft matchup and with a win-and-clinch-a-bye mentality, there's reason to chase, but we should be wary of anyone outside of Edelman. White played fewer than half the snaps in Week 16, and the script should favor Sony Michel ($6,500) this week.
- Michel had 21 carries and 2 targets last week but still needs touchdowns to pay off. He has 10.8 and 10.6 FanDuel points the past two games, flirting with 100 total yards and zero touchdowns. The 10.8 FanDuel points are an eight-week high for him. Update: Michel is questionable with an illness. Both White and Rex Burkhead ($6,200) could be in play if Michel were to miss.

Core Plays: Julian Edelman
Secondary Plays: Tom Brady, Sony Michel (if healthy), James White
Tournament Plays: DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Mohamed Sanu, Rex Burkhead

Philadelphia at NY Giants

Matchup Philadelphia NY Giants
Over/Under | Spread 45.5 +4.5
Implied Team Total 25.0 20.5
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog 65% 24%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog 56% 24%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 28 18
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 20 28
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 4 10
Playoffs 66.6% 0.0%

Game Overview
The Eagles control their destiny, making them one of the best offenses on the slate -- despite their own concerns. The New York Giants showed life last week, so maybe this is a fun one despite a middling total and some pace concerns.

Philadelphia Offense Notes
- Carson Wentz ($7,700) posted his best efficiency numbers since Week 4 in a 17-9 win over the Cowboys in Week 16. The overall production was decent (319 yards but just one passing touchdown), and he ran 6 times for 22 yards, as well. Wentz has now played above the NFL average in per-drop back efficiency in four straight games, averaging 305.0 passing yards and 2. touchdowns. The Giants are 28th in adjusted pass defense, based on numberFire's metrics. In six matchups with bottom-eight pass defenses this year, Wentz has averaged 284.0 yards and 2.3 touchdowns.
- Star tackle Lane Johnson would not have practiced on Wednesday, had there been a practice, and the same goes for Zach Ertz ($6,700) and Nelson Agholor ($5,000).
- If Ertz plays, he should lead the team in targets. Adjusting for their injuries, we have a recent four-game sample to dig into. In that sample, Ertz leads the team with a 24.6% target share (10.8 per game), and Dallas Goedert ($6,400) is second at 18.3% (8.0 per game). Greg Ward ($5,600) has a 17.1% target share, as well. Goedert would spring near the top of the tight end pool if Ertz is out. Update: Ertz is out for Week 17, so Goedert projects as a top-tier tight end and rates out first in per-dollar value in my simulations. Ward is a top-five receiver but isn't a must play due to concerning yardage upside.
- Miles Sanders ($7,400) is priced very well and has played at least 71.4% of snaps in five of six games. When he didn't, he was having cramping issues (and still got to 56.2%). Jordan Howard ($6,900) will return, but Sanders' recent stranglehold on the backfield seems likely to continue -- at least well enough for him to be a strong play at $7,400.

NY Giants Offense Notes
- Last week, Daniel Jones ($7,500) carved up Washington's poor pass defense for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns, giving him his best efficiency day -- by a mile -- of the season. He racked up 27.66 Passing NEP. Prior to that game, he was at -48.04 on the season. Yes, that's negative.
- In two post-bye games in which Golden Tate ($5,900) and Jones played, the target shares are 24.7% for Tate, 20.5% for Sterling Shepard ($6,200), 19.2% for Kaden Smith ($5,300), 12.3% for Darius Slayton ($5,400), and 11.0% for Cody Latimer ($5,400). Justifiably, the prices are pretty low for Tate and Shepard. Shepard's been the recent favorite if we factor in Eli Manning's starts, but both are decent options if running your Eagles stacks back.
- Saquon Barkley ($9,300) has a 9.6% target share in those two games but has rediscovered himself in recent weeks with 28.3 and 41.9 FanDuel points against terrible defenses. The Eagles aren't that and are actually a top-four rush defense when adjusted for opponent strength. Barkley is still a high-ceiling play but not a must in cash games, given the matchup and the price increase.

Core Plays: Carson Wentz, Dallas Goedert, Greg Ward
Secondary Plays: Miles Sanders, Sterling Shepard, Saquon Barkley
Tournament Plays: Golden Tate, Kaden Smith, Daniel Jones

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Matchup Atlanta Tampa Bay
Over/Under | Spread 48.0 -1.0
Implied Team Total 23.5 24.5
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite 76% 33%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite 72% 48%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 12 5
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 25 9
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 14 1
Playoffs 0.0% 0.0%

Game Overview
There's nothing to play for in this one, but the total is high, and the offenses are capable enough. For a futile matchup, this is about as good as it gets, and it's not completely off the map.

Atlanta Offense Notes
- Julio Jones ($8,500) has 35 targets over the past two games, an elite 41.6% target share, since Calvin Ridley was ruled out for the season. Austin Hooper ($6,000) is a distant second in this small sample with a 17.9% target share. It's actually Devonta Freeman ($6,700) in third at 16.7%, followed by Russell Gage ($5,300) at 14.3%. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are actually sixth in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers since Week 9, but Jones' workload and upside keeps him in play in tournaments.
- Matt Ryan ($7,800) has three straight games with at least 0.21 Passing NEP per drop back, giving him pretty elite efficiency in this sample. Those have come against the NFL's 11th-, 2nd-, and 24th-ranked adjusted pass defenses. The Bucs are trending up but are still an elite rushing defense that can funnel passing volume.
- Freeman has been locked into a role that gives him around two-thirds of the snaps and 20 opportunities. The primary issue is that the Buccaneers are the best rush defense in football and have been able to clamp down on backs out of the backfield, ranking first in Target Success Rate allowed to backs over the past eight weeks.

Tampa Bay Offense Notes
- Without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Scotty Miller last week, Jameis Winston ($8,100) still threw for 335 yards and 623 air yards. That came with four picks, and Winston can still bust if he doesn't throw touchdowns despite heavy yardage. The Atlanta Falcons are a top-eight pass defense over the past eight games, for what it's worth. Winston is still in play for tournaments and game stacks.
- Breshad Perriman ($7,600), to me, is overpriced, but he still has paths to paying off. Even with Godwin seeing 8 targets in Week 15, Perriman has a 20.5% target share in a two-week sample and had 25.0% of the targets last week. O.J. Howard ($5,500) has re-emerged with a 17.0% target share the past two games, with Justin Watson ($6,100) and Cameron Brate ($4,900) cleaning up with 13.6%. Howard actually rates out well for me (top-three among tight ends) and is in consideration as a cash-game tight end, a position that is pretty thin this week.

Core Plays: Julio Jones, O.J. Howard
Secondary Plays: Matt Ryan, Austin Hooper, Jameis Winston, Breshad Perriman
Tournament Plays: Devonta Freeman

New Orleans at Carolina

Matchup New Orleans Carolina
Over/Under | Spread 46.5 +13.0
Implied Team Total 29.75 16.75
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog 61% 14%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog 41% 6%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 26 6
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 13 11
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 9 32
Playoffs 100.0% 0.0%

Game Overview
The New Orleans Saints can get the 1 seed with a win and a San Francisco 49ers loss. Because the Niners play Sunday night, the Saints should go all out.

New Orleans Offense Notes
- Drew Brees ($8,400) has three or more passing touchdowns in five of his past six games. The Carolina Panthers are a top-12 adjusted pass defense but derive a good bit of value from their pass rush and sacks. They're 30th in Passing NEP per drop back allowed since Week 9.
- Michael Thomas ($9,200) already broke the NFL record for catches and is just six away from getting to 150 for the season. Carolina is 27th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers since Week 9.
- Despite two touchdowns last week, Jared Cook ($6,800) still has only a 14.0% target share since a Week 9 bye, as Thomas has a commanding 32.4% share and Alvin Kamara ($7,900) is at 21.4% himself. Carolina is eighth against tight ends since Week 9.
- Kamara experienced touchdown regression last week, scoring twice on the ground, and he now draws the NFL's worst adjusted rush defense. Kamara is game-script proof and rates out as the top back in my projections.

Carolina Offense Notes
- Christian McCaffrey ($11,000) is chasing records. He is 67 yards from 1,000 receiving yards on the year, 216 yards from breaking the all-time scrimmage yards record, and 136 from getting into second place. The workload has not been reduced for McCaffrey, and he's very much in play despite the price and low implied total, as 200 yards are in his range of outcomes.
- D.J. Moore is in concussion protocol, and his absence would make McCaffrey's usage even more concentrated.
- Will Grier ($6,400) was dreadful last week but did throw deep 10 times on 44 total attempts. He completed two of them and was picked three times on his downfield attempts. Of those 44 passes, 15 went to McCaffrey, and nobody else had more than 5.

Core Plays: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas
Secondary Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Drew Brees
Tournament Plays: Jared Cook

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Matchup Indianapolis Jacksonville
Over/Under | Spread 43.0 +3.5
Implied Team Total 23.25 19.75
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog 47% 6%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog 16% 12%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 21 27
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 18 24
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 13 31
Playoffs 0.0% 0.0%

Game Overview
Both teams are slow and have nothing to play for. This is pretty rough, and the money is heavily on the under.

Indianapolis Offense Notes
- Last week, Jacoby Brissett ($7,300) spread out 24 targeted throws to 10 different Indianapolis Colts and has been terrible over the past three games. Brissett has a 33.3% Passing Success Rate over those three, same as Mason Rudolph and worse than David Blough (34.7%).
- With T.Y. Hilton ($6,500) back the past two weeks, he has a team-high 22.8% target share, but that's only 6.5 per game in a low-volume offense. Jack Doyle ($6,000) and Zach Pascal ($5,800) have a 15.8% target share in these games. It's wholly uninspiring.
- Marlon Mack ($7,300) handled 16 of 26 running back carries last week and could see elevated numbers against a bottom-two rush defense, but that's all we're clinging to. The touchdown equity is quite low for Mack and the entire offense. Miles Sanders can be had for $100 more.

Jacksonville Offense Notes
- Gardner Minshew ($6,700) has lowered the offense's ceiling in recent weeks, as he has posted -0.04 Passing NEP per drop back since returning as the team's starter. He is 31st among 35 qualified passers in downfield attempt rate since returning.
- In two games with D.J. Chark ($5,900) in Minshew's recent starts, Chark has a 25.0% target share. Leonard Fournette ($7,400) is at 17.6%, and Dede Westbrook ($5,300) is at 16.2%. For the price and the expected workload, Chark is a third-receiver-in-a-cash-game viable. He needs 26 yards to get to 1,000 on the season.
- Fournette's workload is dominant, and he rates out as a top-three back in my model, but I won't be treating him as such, given the low touchdown odds for a team with an implied total below 20. The Colts are actually 2nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs since Week 9 (and 22nd in Target Success Rate). Update: Fournette has been ruled out, paving the way for a minimum salary rusher in Ryquell Armstead ($4,500). Armstead rates out as an elite play with his anticipated workload.

Core Plays: Ryquell Armstead
Secondary Plays: D.J. Chark
Tournament Plays: Marlon Mack

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Matchup Pittsburgh Baltimore
Over/Under | Spread 38.5 +2.5
Implied Team Total 20.5 18.0
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog 9% 65%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog 5% 65%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 25 32
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 4 5
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 2 25
Playoffs 23.6% 100.0%

Game Overview
The Baltimore Ravens are locked into the AFC's 1 seed and are resting starters, including Lamar Jackson, and the Pittsburgh Steelers need a win and help to make it to the postseason. They should be motivated, but the offense is very, very bad. There's practically no money on the over.

Pittsburgh Offense Notes
- Devlin Hodges ($6,500) ranks 43rd in Passing NEP per drop back (-0.07) among 51 qualified passers this season. The matchup should be an easy one against the Ravens' second-string defense. Even in three games against below-averages pass defenses since Week 13, Hodges has averaged 149.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster's ($5,900) return was underwhelming last week: 4 targets for 22 yards. Diontae Johnson ($6,000) and James Washington ($5,600) had better workloads with nine and eight targets, respectively. The air yards also favored Washington (129) -- followed by Johnson (60) and Smith-Schuster (48). The only reason to stick here is for the motivation angle. The payoff is probably minimal at best.
- Vance McDonald ($4,800) did get six targets last week but had an average target depth of just 4.5 yards.
- Jaylen Samuels ($5,300) played 62.7% of snaps last week, but the backfield is script-dependent, and nobody has a featured role now that James Conner ($6,800) is mixing in.

Baltimore Offense Notes
- Robert Griffin III ($7,000) would be more appealing at a lower price. The Steelers will be playing to win and have a top-four adjusted rushing and passing offense.
- The same can be said for Gus Edwards ($6,600) and Justice Hill ($5,900), who aren't cheap enough to be slam-dunk value plays. We're best off avoiding the Baltimore offense this week. That means avoiding most of this game overall.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: None
Tournament Plays: James Washington

Tennessee at Houston

Matchup Tennessee Houston
Over/Under | Spread 45.5 +3.5
Implied Team Total 24.5 21.0
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog 81% 50%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog 56% 48%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 23 19
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 16 21
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 5 16
Playoffs 62.0% 100.0%

Game Overview
Hey, this one has the playoff juice. The Tennessee Titans are in with a win, and the Houston Texans are already in but could be locked into the 4 seed by the time the 4:25pm kickoff comes around, so they're riskier that we would like.

Tennessee Offense Notes
- Derrick Henry ($8,800) was a full participant in practice on Wednesday. The Titans need him this week, so he should play as much as he can handle. Henry runs into a mid-level rush defense, one that could be disengaged if their playoff fate is sealed by kickoff. He's still more of a secondary play due to the uncertainty around his injury -- and the fact that he could be scripted out if the Titans trail.
- Ryan Tannehill ($7,900) ranks ninth in Passing NEP per drop back on the season and has cleared 23.68 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. The Texans' defense is a below-average unit and ranks only 27th in sack rate since Week 9, Tannehill's biggest weakness. He may be my cash-game quarterback.
- A.J. Brown ($7,200) is in a bounce-back spot after getting reduced to 2 targets and 34 yards last week against Marshon Lattimore. Houston does rank third against receivers since Week 9, but Brown still has a claim to 24.6% of the team's targets since Week 12 (which works out to only 6.2 per game). With volume concerns still prevalent, Brown is more a secondary play than a core, can't-miss play.

Houston Offense Notes
- This is one of the simpler offenses in the NFL, as only two assets are really in play on a full slate, and if you're playing the angle that they're locked into their fate, then the whole offense is off the board.
- Deshaun Watson ($8,000) will be without Will Fuller this week. In nine games this season in which Fuller has played at least half the snaps, Watson has averaged 0.35 Passing NEP per drop back. Without Fuller for at least half the snaps (six games), he's at -0.02. That's basically the difference between Lamar Jackson and Andy Dalton on a per-play basis. Update: Watson will not play this week.
- In those six games, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,300) leads with a 33.7% target share, and nobody else is better than 15.4% (Kenny Stills ($5,800)). Hopkins deserves a lot of attention for DFS this week, assuming the Texans do keep the foot on the pedal. Update: Hopkins is not expected to play this weekend.

Core Plays: Ryan Tannehill
Secondary Plays: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown
Tournament Plays: None

Oakland at Denver

Matchup Oakland Denver
Over/Under | Spread 41.0 -3.5
Implied Team Total 18.75 22.25
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite 52% 56%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite 6% 69%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 31 22
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 30 10
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 22 15
Playoffs 5.4% 0.0%

Game Overview
The Oakland Raiders aren't eliminated but need a lot of help -- plus a win -- to make the playoffs. The three teams involved -- Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Tennessee -- also play in the afternoon. Despite this, the Denver Broncos are favored. This has one of the wildest bets-to-money ratios we've seen all season.

Oakland Offense Notes
- We could see Josh Jacobs ($7,600) return this week, but he wouldn't have practiced yesterday if the Raiders held practice and had early-week surgery. Last week in Jacobs' absence, we saw DeAndre Washington ($6,300) play 63.5% of the snaps, he same rate he got in Week 14 when Jacobs missed. Washington had 14 carries and 7 targets in Week 14 and 23 carries and 3 targets in Week 16. If Jacobs is deemed 100%, he's a borderline core option. If he doesn't, Washington vaults there due to the price. Update: Jacobs has been ruled out.
- In Hunter Renfrow's ($6,000) return last week, he led the team with nine targets. Nobody else had more than four targets. That's not a fluke. If we look at the target shares since Renfrow's expanded role and in games where he was healthy, he leads with a subpar 21.7% target share. Darren Waller ($6,200) and Tyrell Williams ($5,700) are at only 16.3% in a low-volume offense. It's pretty gross. Waller still holds value as a target-getting tight end, and the Broncos are the worst tight end defense in the NFL since Week 9.

Denver Offense Notes
- Drew Lock ($7,100) has played above the NFL average in per-drop back efficiency (0.15) this season, giving value to the offense despite their status as 2019 pretenders.
- Lock has prioritized Courtland Sutton ($7,100) in his four starts, giving Sutton a 25.2% target share. Nobody else is above 16.5% (DaeSean Hamilton ($5,500)). This isn't adjusted for Noah Fant's ($5,600) reduced snap rate (71.9%, 49.2%, 45.8%, and 57.8% in these four games), but he's at only a 9.4% target share himself. Oakland has actually limited tight ends of late.
- Phillip Lindsay ($6,600) is fresh off a 19-carry, 3-target game and is priced fairly for a matchup with the NFL's 22nd-ranked adjusted rushing defense. Lindsay's yo-yoing snap rate still maxes out at around 60%, so we don't need to chase him into a game with uncertain motivation for the Broncos, who would hurt their draft stock with a win.

Core Plays: DeAndre Washington
Secondary Plays: Darren Waller, Phillip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton
Tournament Plays: Drew Lock, Noah Fant

Arizona at LA Rams

Matchup Arizona LA Rams
Over/Under | Spread 47.5 -7.5
Implied Team Total 20.0 27.5
Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite N/A 44%
Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite N/A 41%
Adj. Seconds/Play Rank 2 1
Adj. Pass Defense Rank 27 14
Adj. Rush Defense Rank 18 12
Playoffs 0.0% 0.0%

Game Overview
Both teams are out of playoff contention. The Los Angeles Rams may rest their starters after getting bounced last week, and Kyler Murray ($7,700) was limited in practice early in the week. We could be seeing a dud of a game, despite the over/under.

Arizona Offense Notes
- Murray left early last week, giving way to Brett Hundley ($7,000), who filled in well enough. Hundley threw just 9 times for 49 yards and ran 6 times for 35 yards. Hundley did throw 3 of his 9 passes at least 16 yards downfield. Similar to Robert Griffin, we could have more interest if he weren't already priced up to a range where he's getting close to other relevant passers.
- Kenyan Drake ($7,300) has a tough price for an uncertain offense now with the quarterback situation. Drake has handled 46 carries and 4 receptions the past two games, returning 39.1 and 31.9 FanDuel points in them. It's a matter of game script and motivation here, so Drake is more of a secondary-to-tournament-only play for me this week, regardless of how his projections look.
- Christian Kirk ($5,700) had 5 empty targets last week but still has a decent 23.6% target share in four post-bye games. The offense has become more horizontal in recent weeks, making this a Drake-or-bust unit in Week 17.

LA Rams Offense Notes
- Head coach Sean McVay has been vague about the team's plans for Week 17. However, as they are eliminated, we should be hesitant to trust them even if the starters are deemed good to go.
- Until we hear what the plan is -- if we do -- the Rams are fine to leave out of the player pool.

Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: None
Tournament Plays: None