Daily Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Primer: Week 11
If you're hoping to build your lineup around some stud receivers this week, you're in luck. The Week 11 main slate features a number of the league's superstar wideouts in great spots to post big numbers this week.
In this preview, I'll break down the wide receivers into three categories based on FanDuel's prices: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around are more expensive, but their ceilings are high enough that you should consider prioritizing them in your lineup. Value plays are cheaper options who usually come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are guys you might normally consider at their price tag but have tough matchups and are unlikely to live up to their usual expectations.
All references to betting totals and spreads are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Reveivers to Build Around
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($9,000) -- Michael Thomas' consistency makes him an option every week. He's finished among the top-25 receivers every week in which he's played, the only receiver to accomplish that feat. In Week 11, Thomas has an even higher ceiling than usual, going up against an inept Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that's allowed the top scoring fantasy receiver in each of the last two weeks (Tyler Lockett in Week 9 and Christian Kirk in Week 10). In fact, Tampa's defense has allowed a top-five score to a wide receiver in five of its last six games.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($8,300) -- Going up against the Baltimore Ravens' defense is a potential tough spot for DeAndre Hopkins. However, this game carries the highest total on the main slate at 51.5 points. Given the Houston Texans' inconsistent defense, there's a strong possibility Lamar Jackson marches up and down the field, forcing Deshaun Watson to air it out in an effort to keep pace. In the event this turns into a shootout, the volume Hopkins would see likely cancels out the negative effect of facing Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters in coverage. Because Hopkins' value is somewhat game-script dependent, it probably makes sense to pair him with others who would benefit from the same scenario such as Jackson, Watson or Marquise Brown.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,200) -- If New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore is able to suit up, this turns into a tough matchup for Mike Evans. However, Lattimore is expected to miss this game due to a hamstring injury. After a shaky start to the year, Lattimore has been allowing just 4.0 yards per target since Week 5. In that same span, Eli Apple is allowing 7.5 yards per target with P.J. Williams allowing 7.8, according to Sports Info Solutions. If Evans draws coverage from Apple and/or Williams, rather than Lattimore, his expected production increases significantly.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($8,100) -- The Detroit Lions primarily use man coverage, which increases Amari Cooper's value this week. Regardless of coverage type, Cooper is Dak Prescott's favorite target. However, according to Sports Info Solutions, Cooper sees a 30.6 percent target share versus man coverage, compared to just 20.5 percent versus zone.
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($7,800) -- Julio Jones is a viable option almost every week, but he could be in line for a bigger role against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday due to the Atlanta Falcons' depleted depth chart at running back. With Ito Smith on the injured reserve and Devonta Freeman expected to be out for at least one week, Atlanta will likely have third-year running back Brian Hill making his first career start. A shaky run game could increase the workload for Jones. There's also a chance Jones will benefit from Panthers cornerback James Bradberry playing at less than 100 percent. Bradberry missed last week due to a groin injury and only just returned to practice on Thursday.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($6,600) -- Courtland Sutton is a little expensive to be considered a value, but he's in a situation this week that deserves mentioning. Going up against a strong Minnesota Vikings defense may initially look like a bad spot for Sutton, but Minnesota's defense has surprisingly been getting lit up by receivers in recent weeks. Here's a breakdown of the top receiver against the Vikings in each of their last five games:
|Week 6||Alshon Jeffery, PHI||18.6|
|Week 7||Marvin Jones, DET||38.3|
|Week 8||Terry McLaurin, WSH||5.9|
|Week 9||Tyreek Hill, KC||23.5|
|Week 10||Amari Cooper, DAL||26.2|
Since Emmanuel Sanders was traded, Sutton has a 29.2 percent target share. So there should be plenty of opportunities for him to continue this trend against the Vikings' defense.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers ($5,600) -- On Monday night against the Seattle Seahawks, Deebo Samuel saw a career-high 11 targets. That volume was likely at least partially aided by the absence of tight end George Kittle, whose status for Week 11 remains in doubt. If Kittle can't go, Samuel should be considered an elite option as Jimmy Garoppolo's go-to weapon in the slot. But even if Kittle is available, Samuel still has value. In Week 9 with a healthy Kittle, Samuel saw seven targets against the Arizona Cardinals, who San Francisco faces again on Sunday. Arizona is allowing 9.3 yards per target to slot receivers, according to Sports Info Solutions, so this is a good matchup for Samuel independent of Kittle's status.
Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills ($5,500) -- The Miami Dolphins' defense gives everyone a boost, but it has been particularly friendly to slot receivers. Miami is allowing 9.5 yards per target to slot receivers, the fourth-highest rate in the league. In their first matchup, Cole Beasley scored a modest 9.1 fantasy points against Miami, but there's clearly a higher ceiling given the Dolphins' issues on defense.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins ($5,500) -- After a hot start to the year, Terry McLaurin has struggled to make a fantasy impact in recent weeks. In Week 11, however, McLaurin matches up with the New York Jets, who appear to be a sinking ship. The Jets have allowed a top-10 score to a wide receiver in each of their last three games. During that span, they've allowed 173 total fantasy points to wide receivers, the most in the league. We've seen what McLaurin can do against bad defenses -- he posted 24 fantasy points against Miami in Week 6 -- so he should be considered an ideal tournament option due to that upside and an expected low ownership rate due to his recent struggles.
Receivers to Avoid
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($7,600) -- With Jeff Driskel filling in for the injured Matthew Stafford last week, Kenny Golladay managed just three receptions on nine targets against the Chicago Bears. Stafford has yet to practice this week, making it appears as though Driskel will be taking snaps again against the Dallas Cowboys. In addition to the downgrade at quarterback, Dallas has been stingy to opposing receivers this year. The Cowboys have allowed just one top-10 score to a receiver this year and have been particularly dominant in recent weeks. Here's a look at the top scoring receiver against Dallas in each of its last three games.
|Week||WR||Fantasy Pts||WR Rank|
|Week 7||Alshon Jeffery, PHI||4.8||66th|
|Week 9||Golden Tate, NYG||8.8||34th|
|Week 10||Stefon Diggs, MIN||6.4||43rd|
Adam Thielen, MInnesota Vikings ($7,000) -- Adam Thielen did not practice on Thursday due to a hamstring injury, so it's possible he won't suit up at all on Sunday. If he does play, however, he's probably still someone to avoid in a tough matchup against the Denver Broncos. According to Sports Info Solutions, Denver is allowing just 6.2 yards per target to slot receivers this season, the third-lowest rate in the league.