Daily Fantasy Football Tight End Primer: Week 11
The great thing about daily fantasy football is that so much changes every week, with matchups, salaries and projected ownership all varying -- sometimes significantly -- from main slate to main slate.
At numberFire, we have a plethora of tools to help you as you build your lineups, and something we've added this season is an in-depth look at the four core positions. In this piece, we'll break down the tight end slot on FanDuel's main slate.
Here we go.
Mark Andrews, Ravens ($6,900 on FanDuel)
It's another lousy week for tight ends as our models have just three players at the position projected for more than 7.2 FanDuel points. Yay!
Andrews is the belle of the ball. We forecast him for 12.3 FanDuel points -- 1.9 more than any other tight end. He tops our tight ends projections in all of targets (7.9), catches (5.2), yards (69.1) and touchdowns (0.48).
The Baltimore Ravens-Houston Texans clash could be a popular game stack, and with Marquise Brown banged up (missed practice Thursday), Andrews is the guy to pair with Lamar Jackson if you're stacking Baltimore. This game is up to a 51.5-point total, tops on the slate, and the Ravens' 28.00-point implied total is tied for the second-highest of the week.
After playing just 34% of the snaps in Baltimore's first game after the bye, Andrews was up to a 51% clip a week ago in a laugher over the Cincinnati Bengals. That's more or less in line with his 48.1% snap rate for the season. He saw eight looks against Cincy and turned them into six grabs, 53 yards and a pair of tuddies. He's got at least seven targets in all but one game this campaign, giving him a floor/ceiling combination worth paying up for.
Darren Waller, Raiders ($6,700)
Let me be real with you guys -- Waller's role has dwindled since Tyrell Williams returned from an injury. In three games with Williams back in the lineup, Waller has seen just a 17.2% target share.
That's not ideal, especially at this price.
But, man, the matchup with the Bengals is a dream spot. The Oakland Raiders are 10.5-point favorites with a slate-best 29.5-point implied total -- which is totally normal to write. The Bengals are a pass-funnel D, sitting fourth-worst against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted numbers, and a solid 11th against the run.
Waller has shown his ceiling to be pretty high, with games of 28.1 and 20.6 FanDuel points this year, and he could produce that type of outburst in Week 11. We project him for 10.4 FanDuel points, second-most at the position.
Jared Cook, Saints ($6,000)
The New Orleans Saints have a 27.5-point implied total for their road date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Usually, we're a little weary of stacking the Saints on the road, but the matchup eases a lot of those concerns as this game boasts a 49.5-point total, with New Orleans carrying a 27.50-point implied total.
Michael Thomas is the clear number-one dude in the Saints' passing game, but he's tough to get to at a salary of $9,000. Cook is a nice fall-back option.
In the two games since Drew Brees came back, Cook is tied with Alvin Kamara for second on the team in target share (22%), and he paces the squad in air yards share in that time (32%), per AirYards.com. On top of that, Cook is facing a Tampa Bay D that's surrendered the second-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends (14.9).
As an affordable piece to what will likely be one of the more popular games this week, Cook could wind up being a chalk play, but there are plenty of reasons to be into him in this spot.
Value Dart Throw
Greg Olsen, Panthers ($5,100)
Typically, the value dart throw is someone who, you know, stinks -- a guy with a low floor who we're praying somehow crosses the goal-line with the football in his possession. This week, Olsen is actually a legit good play, and no one would bat an eye if his salary was up closer to $6,000.
The Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers game holds a 49.5-point over/under. As if that wasn't good enough, a lot of the pieces in this game -- aside from Julio Jones and Christian McCaffrey -- are modestly priced, making this a great game to stack for those who are dropping big bucks on the likes of Dalvin Cook and the aforementioned CMC.
Olsen is fresh off an eight-catch, 98-yard day in Week 10 versus the Green Bay Packers, and he's seen at least five targets in three of his last four outings. Since Kyle Allen took over, Olsen has accounted for a solid 16% target share.
At $5,100, there's not much to complain about here.
Zach Ertz, Eagles ($6,200)
Ertz has a bad matchup against the New England Patriots, and his price places him in a bit of a no man's land this week. Those with the cash to pay up at tight end will likely flock to Waller or Andrews, and for people who don't have the coin for those two, most will likely drop down to the likes of Olsen or Cook.
So this is a chance to get an elite talent at likely lower ownership.
Earlier, when I said the matchup was bad, I may have undersold it a wee bit. The Pats are giving up just 6.0 FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Yuck.
Ertz's volume keeps him in play, though. He leads the Philadelphia Eagles with a 24% target share over their last two games, and he's seen 29% of their air yards in that span, as well. He's done that in spite of Dallas Goedert's role growing as the season has progressed, so Ertz's status as a top dog in this Philly offense isn't in danger.
We project Ertz for 10.1 FanDuel points, making him our TE3 on the main slate, and he's worth sprinkling into some tourney lineups.