Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 7
By Week 7, we can be set in our ways and presume we know which teams and players are trustworthy and which ones should be avoided in daily fantasy football, but adapting to new information is a huge piece of the DFS puzzle.
Of course, numberFire has no shortage of tools -- lineup generators, fantasy projections, and more -- to help you round out your rosters, but some extra prep never hurt anyone. So, here are some notes to know about each and every game on FanDuel's main slate for Week 7.
LA Rams at Atlanta
Arizona at NY Giants
Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Oakland at Green Bay
Minnesota at Detroit
Miami at Buffalo
Houston at Indianapolis
San Francisco at Washington
LA Chargers at Tennessee
Baltimore at Seattle
New Orleans at Chicago
LA Rams at Atlanta
|Over/Under | Spread||54.5||+3.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||66%||14%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||66%||16%|
|Implied Team Total||28.75||25.75|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||2||28|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||18||31|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||11||9|
- The highest over/under on the slate by four points makes this game the go-to place for game stacks and daily fantasy value. It's about as good a DFS matchup as we can get, and the money is on the over, even at 54.5.
LA Rams Offense Notes
- The Los Angeles Rams tanked last week when Jared Goff ($7,800) succumbed to pressure all day long, but the Atlanta Falcons rank just 20th in adjusted pressure rate and 31st in adjusted pass defense, which should help the team move the ball. This is a bounce-back spot for Goff and his offense.
- With Todd Gurley ($7,100) fully questionable for Week 7, we can proceed as if he won't play. Malcolm Brown ($6,100) played 67.9% of snaps last week but didn't come through from a fantasy standpoint. He handled 11 carries but had no receiving work, though he ran 57.1% of pass routes, via PFF; by comparison, Darrell Henderson ($5,200) had 6 carries and 2 targets on a 28.6% route rate and 32.1% snap rate. Brown's role was pretty solid.
- Update: Gurley is off the injury report, and it's Brown who is doubtful. With not knowing Gurley's limitations this week, we should consider him more of a tournament differentiator than anything else because we have other, safer backs from which to choose.
- Cooper Kupp ($7,800) leads the NFL in targets per game (11.5) and draws a nice slot matchup against Atlanta, who ranks 25th in yards per slot snap. Overall, the Falcons rank 32nd in Target Success Rate and FanDuel points per target allowed to wide receivers, keeping Robert Woods ($7,300) and Brandin Cooks ($6,700) in breakout territory, though Woods is the priority from a safety standpoint.
- Gerald Everett ($5,900) has had 8, 11, and 5 targets the past three games with deep work mixed in. Atlanta is 26th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
Atlanta Offense Notes
- Matt Ryan ($7,900) ranks fifth in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back among qualified quarterbacks, and he has had at least 300 passing yards in every game. He's in cash-game consideration this week.
- Julio Jones ($8,200) ranks 7th in air yards per game (111.8) among receivers and has at least 98 in every game. He hasn't scored since finding pay dirt four times in the first three games, but his peripherals are mostly unchanged. He's primed for another cash-in spot against the Rams' pass defense. The goal is for Jalen Ramsey to play in Week 7 -- and he will -- which should bump Jones down a bit but could make him an elite tournament play if it causes his ownership to plummet.
- Calvin Ridley ($5,500) remains cheap but is getting a lot of high-leverage looks, including 2, 3, and 3 deep targets over the past three games, as well as 6, 9, and 6 total targets over the past three games. The Rams rank 28th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed on deep passes.
- Austin Hooper ($6,600) ranks fourth in targets (8.4) and fifth in air yards per game (60.8) among tight ends. The Rams are just 20th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends, so Hooper is a cash-game viable option in this shootout.
- Devonta Freeman ($6,400) separated himself from Ito Smith ($5,000) last week by playing 72.5% of snaps and handling 19 of 22 running back carries. He has at least three targets in every game, as well.
Core Plays: Matt Ryan, Cooper Kupp, Austin Hooper, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley
Secondary Plays: Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Jared Goff, Gerald Everett
Tournament Plays: Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks
Arizona at NY Giants
|Over/Under | Spread||50.5||-3.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||71%||70%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||75%||77%|
|Implied Team Total||23.75||26.75|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||20||7|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||28||23|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||27||12|
- While not quite as exciting as the Rams/Falcons game, this one has cheap pieces and some studs who could be back and healthy for the New York Giants. It's a great game to stack, especially if playing a fade on the game in Atlanta.
Arizona Offense Notes
- Kyler Murray ($7,700) has run 21 times in his past two games and has at least 8 carries in three of four games, all while pushing the ball downfield often enough (20th in deep-ball rate) to be an all-around fantasy threat. He's a top-three play in my simulations.
- David Johnson ($7,400) played 75.4% of snaps last week despite a back injury, and Chase Edmonds' ($5,500) role is a bit overstated right now. Johnson had 8 targets and 12 carries last week, giving him at least 20 opportunities in all five games in which he didn't leave with injury.
- We don't need to panic, but it's worth noting that Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600) has seen a decline in snap rate (95.5%, 95.0%, 92.0%, 84.1%, 74.0%, 73.9%) and has just a 20.3% target share over the past three games. His air yard totals have fallen a bit: 156, 117, 51, 11, 83, 84. He's still cheap and faces a bottom-five receiver defense and slot defense.
- We should expect Christian Kirk ($5,600) back this week, based on last week's news. Kirk ranks ninth among receivers in targets per game (9.3).
NY Giants Offense Notes
- Daniel Jones ($7,200) is shaping up to be a popular way to save some salary at quarterback. In my simulations, he's 7th in FanDuel value when using his 75th-percentile outcome but still has some bust potential.
- Both Saquon Barkley ($8,600) and Evan Engram ($6,800) are trending toward playing this week. Assuming they play a full workload, Engram is actually the best point-per-dollar play at tight end in my simulations, and Barkley is third at running back. Arizona ranks 31st against tight ends and 27th against the rush overall.
- Sterling Shepard ($6,500) participated in individual drills on Monday but won't play on Sunday. That elevates the target floor for Golden Tate ($6,100), coming off a 9-target, 102-yard, 1-touchdown game last Thursday. numberFire projects him for a 22.7% target share (8.3).
- Darius Slayton ($5,400) ran every route last week and had 8 targets for just 32 yards but saw 156 air yards and 4 deep targets. He'd be a tournament option if Shepard were to sit.
Core Plays: Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Kyler Murray, Evan Engram, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk
Secondary Plays: Golden Tate
Tournament Plays: Darius Slayton
Jacksonville at Cincinnati
|Over/Under | Spread||43.5||+4|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||16%||91%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||11%||86%|
|Implied Team Total||23.75||19.75|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||27||19|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||15||27|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||30||19|
- The betting public hates the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals to go over 43.5, but I think it's a pretty nice game and one of the few that could be a sneaky game stack on the main slate.
Jacksonville Offense Notes
- Leonard Fournette ($7,900) is in a great spot after playing 90% of snaps more often than not. Fournette also ranks 12th among backs in targets per game (5.8) and ranks third on the Jags in target market share (17.9%).
- Gardner Minshew ($6,900) has been fine this season, ranking 22nd in Passing NEP per drop back despite having faced six top-14 pass defenses on the season. Cincinnati is 27th, his easiest matchup of the season.
- Minshew also favors a few receivers, namely D.J. Chark ($6,600), who has a 22.4% target share on the season and 13 deep targets, which rank him 13th among all receivers. Cincinnati ranks 22nd in deep-ball defense. Dede Westbrook ($5,400) has a 23.0% target share but owns a 6.0-yard average target depth.
Cincinnati Offense Notes
- The Jaguars won't have Jalen Ramsey after shipping him to the west coast, so that helps us buy in on Tyler Boyd ($5,600) at a cheap price. Boyd runs 65% of his snaps from the slot but losing Ramsey helps the entire offense. Boyd has averaged 9.8 targets per game, fifth-most among all receivers, but he has scored only once on 415 yards. Scoring regression could hit this week.
- Auden Tate ($5,900) is a tougher sell because of his price relative to Boyd's, but he has played 88.5% of snaps in four straight games. In that span, he has seen 23.4% of the targets, 4 deep targets, and 7 red zone targets.
- Joe Mixon ($6,100) is cheap but has been capped at a 62.7% snap rate this season. The Jaguars are 30th in adjusted rush defense and 28th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs. The matchup is there for Mixon to have a breakout game, but his offensive line makes him tough to load up on with tons of confidence.
Core Plays: Leonard Fournette, Tyler Boyd
Secondary Plays: Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark, Auden Tate, Dede Westbrook, Joe Mixon
Tournament Plays: Andy Dalton ($6,900)
Oakland at Green Bay
|Over/Under | Spread||46.5||-5.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||56%||56%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||18%||49%|
|Implied Team Total||20.5||26.0|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||31||5|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||24||3|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||10||32|
- The public is on the over, but the money is on the under, so this could be a trap spot, given Green Bay's injuries on offense. Still, there's some appeal against a bottom-tier passing defense. It'll be a matter of whether the Oakland Raiders keep pace.
Oakland Offense Notes
- The Oakland Raiders have a tough pass-game matchup against the NFL's third-best adjusted pass defense this week, but they are up in pace and should have to throw, based on the narrowing spread. Derek Carr ($6,500) actually ranks 10th in Passing NEP per drop back on the season but is near the bottom of the barrel in pushing the ball downfield.
- The short targets benefit Darren Waller ($6,200), whose 5.3-yard average target depth comes with at least 5 targets in every game. He has air yards totals of 55, 32, 87, 21, and 26. For context, that ranks him 10th among tight ends in air yards per game. So, he may have more PPR appeal than yardage appeal against the NFL's 10th-best tight end defense by Target Success Rate.
- Tyrell Williams ($5,900) is cheap enough for game stack purposes, but the Green Bay Packers clamp down on wideouts, ranking sixth in Target Success Rate. Zay Jones ($4,500) is a hard player to project in his first game with the Raiders, and the matchup is too tough to consider him anything other than a game-stack candidate.
- Josh Jacobs ($6,700) looks overpriced as a road underdog. His passing-game role has grown a bit with 2, 2, and 4 targets in his past three games, and he most recently played 64.5% of snaps over in London in Week 5. The rushing matchup is plush (Green Bay is 32nd in adjusted rush defense and 20th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs), but there are better plays.
Green Bay Offense Notes
- The Packers are dealing with a ton of injuries this week. On Wednesday, the following skill position players didn't practice: Davante Adams ($8,000), Geronimo Allison ($5,700), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6,300), and Jimmy Graham ($5,800). Valdes-Scantling and Allison are basically game-time calls.
- Adams ($8,000) would be returning to a pretty solid matchup, as Oakland ranks 11th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers but is 28th in FanDuel Points per target. He didn't practice last week, though, and he may be out another week.
- With Geronimo Allison ($5,700) leaving early on Monday, Jake Kumerow ($4,500) led the team in snap rate (87.8%), with Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6,300) playing 77.0%.
- Allen Lazard ($4,500) would be a tournament flier if Valdes-Scantling and Allison sit.
- Aaron Rodgers ($7,600) should be getting some relief this week, against the Raiders' pass rush, which ranks 29th in adjusted pressure rate. Rodgers ranks a middling 19th in Passing NEP per drop back this season. He has maxed out at two touchdowns in a single game and has just one game with at least 285 yards passing (422 in Week 4). He has played 4 top-13 pass defenses and just a single bottom-12 pass defense.
- Jamaal Williams (52.7%) outsnapped Aaron Jones (48.7%) in Week 6 and is significantly cheaper ($5,400 compared to $7,600). They will almost always be in a timeshare on a weekly basis, not what we want for daily fantasy rosters.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Aaron Rodgers, Darren Waller, Jamaal Williams
Tournament Plays: Aaron Jones, Jimmy Graham, Jake Kumerow, Allen Lazard
Minnesota at Detroit
|Over/Under | Spread||46.0||+1.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||52%||44%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||50%||48%|
|Implied Team Total||23.5||22.5|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||17||22|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||6||5|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||3||16|
- Division games are always scary in daily fantasy, and this one features two top-six adjusted pass defenses. The Detroit Lions are 16th in pass rate over expectation, but the Minnesota Vikings are 32nd. This one could hit the under easily.
Minnesota Offense Notes
- Kirk Cousins ($7,300) has actually been efficient this season, ranking ninth in Passing NEP per drop back and sixth when removing sacks and looking at just his actual pass attempts. The Detroit Lions do rank fifth in adjusted pass defense, but they don't generate a lot of pressure (25th), which will be welcomed, given Minnesota's offensive line situation.
- The Stefon Diggs ($6,800) blowup will have people looking his way. Despite a lowly 5.8 targets per game (outside the top 50 among receivers), Diggs leads the NFL in air yards share (50.0%) and is 18th in air yards per game (96.5). Adam Thielen ($7,100) has just 6.3 targets per game but has 12 deep targets since Week 2, ranking ninth among receivers. Detroit has been more vulnerable to the slot than the outside. They're both secondary types of plays given the matchup and volume concerns.
- Dalvin Cook ($8,300) did cede 14 carries to Alexander Mattison ($5,200) last week, but 12 were in the fourth quarter. Problematically, Cook can be at risk of grinding clock and putting games away if they turn to Mattison down the stretch. Still, Dalvin has at least 18 opportunities in every game and averages 22.3. There's plenty to go around against the NFL's 25th-ranked rush defense by Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs.
Detroit Offense Notes
- The Minnesota Vikings' defense poses problems all over the board this week for the Lions. Kerryon Johnson ($6,800) did play 72.9% of snaps last week and has accounted for 71.1% of the team's carries over the past three games. The workload is fine, but the matchup is suspect.
- Matthew Stafford ($7,300), like Cousins, has also been efficient, ranking 7th in Passing NEP per drop back among 38 qualified passers. This probably isn't the spot to chase, however.
- Kenny Golladay ($7,100) has had at least 8 targets in every contest and at least 109 air yards in four of five games. His 16 deep targets rank him 5th among receivers. Likewise, Marvin Jones ($5,600) -- excluding a weird Week 1 -- has had 91, 130, 89, and 85 air yards -- a lot of opportunity. That air yards average (98.8) ranks 20th among all receivers.
- T.J. Hockenson ($5,400) has seen two red zone targets in each of his past three games but has lacked downfield looks since Week 1. He had four deep targets in the opener and none since.
Core Plays: Dalvin Cook
Secondary Plays: Kerryon Johnson, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs
Tournament Plays: Kenny Golladay, Kirk Cousins, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson
Miami at Buffalo
|Over/Under | Spread||40.5||-16.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||21%||25%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||14%||34%|
|Implied Team Total||12.0||28.5|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||3||10|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||32||12|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||28||25|
- A beatdown is all but guaranteed, though bettors think it'll be closer than the 16.5-point spread. Still, the under is likely, and that's a nightmare for DFS rosters. Miami couldn't come through in a better matchup last week.
Miami Offense Notes
- The implied total is 12 points. Josh Rosen ($6,000) just got benched mid-game last week, and they're turning it back over to Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,400) for this week. You can maybe make the case for Kenyan Drake ($5,400) in Buffalo Bills bring-back stacks, as he averaged 5.8 targets per game and is shifting out as a receiver. Preston Williams ($5,100) and DeVante Parker ($5,400) actually have great workloads (14 and 12 deep targets), but that's all we can say when the passing efficiency has been so bad from either quarterback.
Buffalo Offense Notes
- The heavy favorite status could cause problems for Josh Allen ($7,700) and the Bills, but in order to get a lead, they'll have to put up points against the NFL's worst pass defense. He's a cash-game play with a high floor, but game script could limit his ceiling.
- The Bills' passing game should be a little more open without Zay Jones, who averaged 4.8 targets this season and stole some high-leverage looks. John Brown ($5,900) is a strong tournament play against this league-worst pass defense, which is also 32nd in deep-ball adjusted yards per attempt allowed. He may benefit most from shedding Jones' deep targets. Cole Beasley ($5,600) has at least 9 targets in three of five games but has maxed out at 83 yards and has just once surpassed 85 air yards. I likely won't be chasing Duke Williams ($4,700) after just 4 targets and 19 air yards in the Bills' last game.
- Dawson Knox ($4,800) has cleared 58.3% of routes in four of five games but has maxed out at 5 targets. He's a fine tight end punt as a heavy home favorite with a high implied team total.
- The backfield should be a mess with Devin Singletary ($5,800) back, though it's a Frank Gore ($6,000) revenge game and a primo game script. It's not a place we can look to with confidence.
Core Plays: Josh Allen
Secondary Plays: John Brown, Dawson Knox
Tournament Plays: Cole Beasley, Kenyan Drake, Preston Williams & DeVante Parker (only if stacking the Bills)
Houston at Indianapolis
|Over/Under | Spread||47.0||-1.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||65%||31%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||81%||37%|
|Implied Team Total||23.0||24.0|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||18||21|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||11||19|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||31||29|
- A tight spread and a high total could mean a shootout brewing between divisional foes, yet neither team is top half in adjusted pace, and we've seen the Indianapolis Colts deploy a keep-away approach in Week 5 against an explosive offense. Houston is 31st against the rush, so just be mindful of the bust potential.
Houston Offense Notes
- A domed game with a tight spread could be the smash spot that we've been waiting for with DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000). Now, the peripherals are worrisome, as Hopkins hasn't scored since Week 1. He had two red zone targets in the opener and three last week -- with none in between. Hopkins still has at least 7 targets in every game but has cleared 90 air yards in just one of his past five games, a sample in which he ranks 35th in air yards per game.
- Will Fuller ($6,300) remains cheap and is a stellar recency bias play if he winds up going overlooked. After turning 143 air yards into 217 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 5, Fuller actually built on the air yardage -- 158 -- last week but had just 44 yards to show for it. The volume was down from 16 to 9 targets, but the peripherals were still stellar.
- Deshaun Watson ($8,300) ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in per-play passing efficiency, according to numberFire, and has turned that into 25-plus FanDuel points in four of six games.
- Carlos Hyde ($6,300) has emerged with the majority work in a 60/40 backfield split with Duke Johnson ($5,400). Hyde has played 64.4% and 60.9% of snaps the past two games and has handled 76.% of the carries between them this season. With both so game-flow dependent, they're hard justifications.
Indianapolis Offense Notes
- Fresh off a bye, the Indianapolis Colts should have better health for T.Y. Hilton ($7,600) and Marlon Mack ($7,100). Hilton has 7 red zone targets through four games but surprisingly has averaged just 58.5 air yards while playing with Jacoby Brissett ($7,300). Houston grades out 6th-best against the deep pass but are 24th overall in Target Success Rate against receivers.
- Mack played two-thirds of snaps in Week 5 while seeing a heavy 29 carries and 3 targets. He's had at least 19 opportunities in every game in which he didn't leave with injury. Houston is 31st in rushing defense in terms of Adjusted Rushing NEP per play allowed but are 15th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs, so Mack may need to rely on busting big plays here. We have seen Indy play keep away with explosive offenses and vulnerable rush defenses. Mack could be fed in this one.
Core Plays: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Marlon Mack
Secondary Plays: DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, Jacoby Brissett
Tournament Plays: Eric Ebron ($5,300)
San Francisco at Washington
|Over/Under | Spread||41.0||+10.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||15%||9%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||19%||6%|
|Implied Team Total||25.5||15.5|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||12||8|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||2||30|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||7||18|
- The under is firmly in play here even at 42 points, given the betting action and teams involved. The San Francisco 49ers rank 31st in pass rate over expectation, and in one week with interim coach Bill Callahan, Washington ranked 29th. This game could feature more rush attempts than passes, draining the clock, and San Fran's now-elite defense should make this a one-sided affair.
San Francisco Offense Notes
- Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,500) has yet to get to 300 yards passing despite ranking 11th in Passing NEP per drop back. Washington provides a great matchup, but San Francisco may have no reason to throw as heavy favorites.
- George Kittle ($7,100) has generated at least 14.3 FanDuel points in his past two games but has maxed out at 64 air yards in a single game this season. The best run-after-catch tight end in the NFL has been solely reliant on that ability this season. Washington is 14th in Target Success Rate allowed to the position. After Kittle, no 49er has even a 15.0% target share on the season.
- Tevin Coleman ($6,200) has had 10 red zone chances over the past two games and has been heavily involved but has still been capped at a 55.1% snap rate. Matt Breida ($5,600) has played below 36% of snaps in two games with Coleman back. One of them could have a big game, but neither is a must-play. However, there should be enough rushing for each to have some value if you have a gut feeling.
Washington Offense Notes
- We saw Washington run the ball 57.8% of the time when their game was within 7 points last week, a rate that would rank 2nd-highest on the full season. Adrian Peterson ($5,700) had 25 opportunities and 3 red zone chances, but a matchup with a top-10 defense could make it tough to cash in on those chances. He's a fine cash-game play given the volume.
- Case Keenum ($6,600) has been fine in 2019, ranking 14th in Passing NEP per drop back, yet the 49ers have stifled better passers than Keenum. The only concern is whether or not he can get the ball to Terry McLaurin ($6,400). McLaurin ranks 4th among receivers in high-leverage (deep and red zone) targets per game.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, Adrian Peterson (cash games)
Tournament Plays: Terry McLaurin, Matt Breida
LA Chargers at Tennessee
|Over/Under | Spread||40.0||-2.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||49%||30%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||39%||37%|
|Implied Team Total||19.0||21.0|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||32||24|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||26||7|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||20||8|
- Two slow teams and a low over/under is pretty rough for daily fantasy purposes, and both sides have market share problems over recent weeks. This is a tough game to love on FanDuel.
LA Chargers Offense Notes
- Philip Rivers ($7,600) is solely dependent on his passing production for fantasy points, and he now faces the NFL's 7th-best adjusted pass defense. He's not really on the radar for me. He also has spread the ball around a bit -- or at least diverted from Keenan Allen ($7,500) in recent weeks. With Melvin Gordon ($6,600) and Mike Williams ($6,200) back the past two weeks and with Hunter Henry ($5,700) back in Week 6, Allen has had just a 14.0% target share and only 3 of 14 deep targets -- plus 1 of 14 red zone targets. Williams has a better recent workload with 11.5 targets per game in them, which would tie for the NFL lead over the full season, for context.
- Henry returned and played 66.1% of snaps in Week 6 and now faces a defense that's more vulnerable against tight ends than they are on the outside. The price helps overcome the low total, but touchdown expectations are low.
- Gordon has only 20 carries since returning, but that's actually 71.4% of the team's running back carries, as the Los Angeles Chargers have been playing from behind. He played 59.7% of snaps last week and is the priority back over Austin Ekeler ($6,900), assuming the Chargers lead. Ekeler is actually pricier and has little standalone value unless you think the Tennessee Titans win or the Chargers lean away from the run early.
Tennessee Offense Notes
- The Titans are turning it over to Ryan Tannehill ($6,400). The matchup is fine, but the scoring expectations remain low. He did throw deep on 25% of his passes but was trailing when he entered.
- Tannehill's Week 6 target distribution: 4 for Corey Davis ($5,000) and Adam Humphries ($5,100); 2 for A.J. Brown ($5,300), Delanie Walker ($5,200), and Dion Lewis ($4,900); 1 for Jonnu Smith ($4,500) and Anthony Firkser ($4,000).
- Derrick Henry ($6,500) has had at least 18 opportunities in every game so far and has had at least 11.1 FanDuel points in five of six games. He's a low-ceiling performer, and his lack of receiving work both caps his upside and makes the floor scary. He grades top-five in my simulations, but I'm probably ignoring that.
Core Plays: Hunter Henry
Secondary Plays: Melvin Gordon, Delanie Walker
Tournament Plays: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Derrick Henry
Baltimore at Seattle
|Over/Under | Spread||49.0||-3.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||82%||55%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||54%||36%|
|Implied Team Total||23.5||27.0|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||30||14|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||25||22|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||26||15|
- The total was 50.5 on Wednesday but dropped 1.5 points as of Thursday morning. Still, that high of a total in a game between the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. Both teams are below-average defenses and have offenses that can light it up -- but that can also take the air out of the ball, as each ranks bottom-four in pass rate over expectation.
Baltimore Offense Notes
- Lamar Jackson ($8,400) has produced at least 21 FanDuel points in five of six games and just ran 19 times for 152 yards and a touchdown last week. Excluding a blowout in Week 1, he has ran at least 8 times in every game for at least 46 yards.
- Marquise Brown ($5,400) is day-to-day and will play if he can practice this week. He'd be a tournament flier with possibly limited snaps against a pass defense that isn't quite as generous to wide receivers (8th in Target Success Rate) as perception seems to imply. Without Brown last week, no Ravens receiver topped a 66.7% snap rate, which is where Willie Snead ($4,600) landed. Snead had just five targets.
- Mark Andrews ($6,700) ranks 4th among all tight ends in air yards per game (72.5) and is 6th in targets per game (7.8). He's a top-5 tight end play in my simulations against a defense that ranks 29th in Target Success Rate allowed to the position.
- Mark Ingram ($7,500) is overpriced. He has played 50.4% of snaps this year and lacks the receiving work to be in the mid $7,000 range. He has yet to get 20 carries in a game.
Seattle Offense Notes
- Without Will Dissly, the Seahawks should have volume open, but nobody stood out from that perspective last week. Tyler Lockett ($6,500), D.K. Metcalf ($6,200), and Jaron Brown ($5,100) each saw 5 targets; David Moore ($4,800) and Chris Carson ($7,600) had 4; Luke Willson ($4,500) had 3.
- Willson should be in punt consideration, as he played 67.5% of snaps last week and is just $4,500.
- Lockett has a 22.7% target share on the season to go along with 27.6% of the team's air yards. He's the number-one without a doubt, but he has had headache-inducing target totals of 2, 12, 14, 4, 4, and 5. He can disappear. I'm bullish on Metcalf, who has yet to convert on any of his 7 red zone targets, and Dissly leaves behind a 19.4% red zone share (4 touchdowns) of his own. Metcalf and Lockett, though, combined for zero deep targets last week, out of five. So.
- Russell Wilson ($8,500) shouldn't have the luxury to hand the ball off play after play here, so his ceiling could be unlocked against a bottom-eight pass defense. Baltimore is 29th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed on the deep pass.
- Carson has locked himself into an elite role. He has cleared a 76.2% snap rate in the past three game, giving him touchdown equity in a possible back-and-forth game.
Core Plays: Lamar Jackson, Chris Carson, Mark Andrews
Secondary Plays: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett
Tournament Plays: Marquise Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Luke Willson
New Orleans at Chicago
|Over/Under | Spread||38.5||-3.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||36%||18%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||44%||16%|
|Implied Team Total||17.5||21.0|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||29||6|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||14||8|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||13||4|
- A tiny over/under with two backup quarterbacks makes for a daily fantasy nightmare and the type of game that we should target only on the afternoon slate.
New Orleans Offense Notes
- Alvin Kamara ($7,800) didn't practice on Wednesday, and the New Orleans Saints just signed Zach Zenner, so we should probably expect he doesn't play. Latavius Murray ($5,300) would become a tad interesting at his price, though the touchdown equity is low. Last week, Murray played a season-high 42.4% snap rate and had 11 opportunities.
- Update: With Kamara out, Murray grades out as a top-three point-per-dollar play in my simulations but has a 75th-percentile outcome of just 16.8 points in this game. The ceiling is capped in a game like this.
- Michael Thomas ($8,100) leads the NFL in target share (34.2%) and is second in targets per game (11.2), a floor that should be safe without Kamara. The volume hasn't been the issue -- it's just the overall production. Thomas has at least 12.9 FanDuel points in every game but has had between 12.9 and 14.0 with Teddy Bridgewater ($7,000), excluding a Week 5 explosion.
- Jared Cook ($5,800) scored two weeks straight but has averaged just 4.8 targets in five games with Bridgewater playing the majority of snaps.
Chicago Offense Notes
- There's some optimism that Mitchell Trubisky ($6,800) plays this week. Chase Daniel ($6,800) was around league-average as a passer as a starter. I wouldn't change my view drastically depending on the starter.
- Allen Robinson ($7,000) has had at least 7 targets in every game and scored twice in London in Week 5. He'll face a lot of Marshon Lattimore unless he moves to the slot, where he has been on 41% of his routes, according to PFF. Other than Robinson (25.5%) and Tarik Cohen ($5,500; 18.8%), nobody has a double-digit target share.
- David Montgomery ($5,900) is a home favorite, sure, but the Chicago Bears rank 27th in yards before contact generated, and the Saints are 8th defensively. Montgomery has some receiving work (2.6 targets per game) but not enough to trust him blindly.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: David Montgomery, Latavius Murray
Tournament Plays: Allen Robinson, Michael Thomas