DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 5
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Carson Wentz ($6,100): Facing a situation that looks similar to Week 1, Carson Wentz checks all the boxes you want from a cash-game quarterback. The Philadelphia Eagles carry the largest implied team total on the main slate and are massive home favorites against the New York Jets. After allowing 300-yard performances to both Baker Mayfield and Tom Brady, the Jets are coming off a bye week but will once again be starting their third-string quarterback Luke Falk. As for Wentz, he's yet to score fewer than 19 DraftKings points in a game and looks like one of the safest options on the board at the quarterback position.
Matt Ryan ($5,900): Among all quarterbacks on the main slate, numberFire's projection system has Matt Ryan atop the field. That means Ryan is also the best point-per-dollar play at quarterback, ahead of Chase Daniel ($4,800). In addition to exceeding 300 passing yards in every game so far, Ryan is leading the league in pass attempts, putting the ball in the air 40 or more times on three occasions. Ryan is dealing with a bottom-five run offense and an Atlanta Falcons defense that is nearly top-five in allowing opponents to score on a per-drive basis. Through four games, two quarterbacks have thrown more than 40 passes against the Houston Texans. Both of them, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, exceeding 300 yards and scoring two touchdowns.
Andy Dalton ($5,700): After feasting on the NFC West to begin the season, Andy Dalton struggled on the road against the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers. Back in Week 1, Dalton compiled 418 yards on the road against the Seattle Seahawks before throwing two more touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers. Now heading into just his second home game of the season, Dalton draws an Arizona Cardinals defense that, along with only the Miami and Washington, has allowed double-digit passing touchdowns through four weeks.
Dalvin Cook ($8,400): Last week, in a quote-on-quote bad game on the road against the Chicago Bears, Dalvin Cook still found a way to score nearly 19 DraftKings points. Cook was targeted a season-high eight times and has now exceeded 30 receiving yards in three straight games. Despite having one of the best duos of wide receivers in the league, Minnesota has totally committed to Cook and the run game, handing the ball off at a top-five rate. Even though Christian McCaffrey costs only $300 more, the extreme values at wide receiver make it easy to see how DFS managers can play both McCaffrey and Cook in their lineups.
David Johnson ($7,500): Even though David Johnson is at his highest price since the opener, he's the best point-per-dollar value at running back based on numberFire's projections ahead of Le'Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette. Johnson has caught six or more passes in three of four games and is fourth in Opportunity Share, according to PlayerProfiler. Playing on the road for just the second time this season, Arizona will see a friendly Cincinnati Bengals defense that leads the league in receiving yards allowed to running backs.
Joe Mixon ($6,100): At a very affordable price, Joe Mixon makes a lot of sense in all formats. After struggling mightily in the first two games, Mixon has seen 15 carries in consecutive road games while rushing for 60 or more yards. Based on numberFire's metrics, Arizona owns the third-worst run defense in the league and has given up a 100-yard rushing performance each of the last two games. Don’t let the 3.2 yards per carry and 4.7 yards per reception fool you, Mixon should find a lot of success in this one.
Michael Thomas ($6,600): With Teddy Bridgewater as the starting quarterback for the New Orleans Saints each of the last two weeks, Michael Thomas has seen a total of 16 targets after registering more than a dozen in each of the first two games. However, Thomas has remained a fantasy metronome by scoring more than 16 DraftKings points in every game thus far. According to PlayerProfiler, Thomas has a whopping 32.8 percent target share, second-most in the league. Thomas is also top-three in catch rate but has yet to see a deep target of 20 yards or more. While the Tampa Bay defense is vastly improved, they are the most targeted pass defense through four games. Thomas should continue to feast on a bountiful supply of short and mid-range targets.
KeeSean Johnson ($3,500): Based on numberFire's projections, KeeSean Johnson is the best point-per-dollar option at the wide receiver position this week. Johnson saw 10 targets back in Week 1, yet has only seen a total of nine over the last three games combined. However, Christian Kirk (ankle) has been ruled out, which creates an extremely significant void as Kirk ranks seventh in targets through four games. Additionally, Damiere Byrd (hamstring) missed last week and appears unlikely to suit up against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been very stingy when it comes to allowing fantasy points to wide receivers, yet our metrics rate the Bengals as a bottom-five pass defense. When opportunity comes at such a low price, as is the case with Johnson in this spot, expect to see a high degree of ownership.
Auden Tate ($3,500): Over the last two weeks, Auden Tate has played on more than 88 percent of the snaps while seeing a total of 16 targets. Not only is A.J. Green (ankle) still unavailable, the Bengals will also be without John Ross (shoulder) for multiple weeks. That means Tate -- who's built like a move tight end at 6-5, 228 pounds -- will continue to see plenty of playing time. Oddly enough, the only wide receiver that has hit 100 yards against Arizona so far this season has been Danny Amendola. However, Tate doesn't need that kind of performance to justify this price tag. Don't be surprised if DFS managers look to get both KeeSean Johnson and Tate into cash games to play multiple high-priced running backs.
Darren Waller ($5,000): Even though Darren Waller has seen a target share of nearly 30 percent, which is extremely high for even a wide receiver and nearly unheard of for a tight end, he remains very reasonably priced. Waller leads all tight ends with 33 receptions and is top-five in other key stats like targets, deep targets, receiving yards, and yards after the catch. While the Bears have been solid against tight ends thus far, the level of competition they’ve faced is uninspiring. Even though Waller has yet to find the end zone, the impressive level of volume has provided an extremely solid floor and has allowed him to score more than 12 DraftKings points in each game.
Austin Hooper ($4,500): If not for Jeremy Sprinkle, Washington's only healthy tight end and available at the minimum salary, Austin Hooper would be the top value at tight end this week based on our projections. Since entering the league in 2016, Hooper has improved each season and already has matched 46 percent of last year's career-high 600 receiving yards. In addition to coming off his second-ever 100-yard game, Hooper has been targeted six or more times in all four games. The Texans have yet to be tested by a tight end of Hooper's caliber, so it remains to be seen if their suppression of tight ends thus far has any real meaning.
Carolina D/ST ($2,600): Even though the Carolina Panthers are tied for the league lead in sacks and have hit the quarterback more than any other team, they remain underpriced as home favorites facing a rookie quarterback. Making his fourth consecutive start, Gardner Minshew was sacked four times in Week 2 by the Texans and five times in Week 4 by the Denver Broncos, a team that had zero sacks heading into the game. Our projections having Carolina scoring more DraftKings points than any other defense below $3,000, making them a top value for all formats.
Pittsburgh D/ST ($2,100): After throwing for five touchdowns in the opener and rushing for 120 yards in Week 2, Lamar Jackson has begun to look human. He didn't throw a touchdown in Week 3 and barely completed 50 percent of his passes. Last week, Jackson threw his first two interceptions of the season and took a season-high four sacks. That's good news for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are top-five in sacks, tied for second in quarterback hits, and are playing at home, although they are underdogs. Given all that, it's not surprising to see the Steelers projected as the top point-per-dollar option among defensive units.