NFL Weather Report: Week 2

Week 1 was all about the highlights as we watched Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook ascend to elite heights.

Meanwhile, Cam Newton caused multiple turnovers, and Kirk Cousins barely threw the ball.

The fantasy community had been deprived of football action for so long, the ancillary analysis took a backseat. Projections, roster construction, and a need for action took center stage while we finally watched actual football on a Sunday.

On the field, weather played a part. The heat mixed with a reported illness kept Mike Evans in check to the tune of two catches for 28 yards on just five targets. Tyler Boyd's slip on the turf after some rainfall in Seattle negated a possible touchdown. Of course, hindsight bias doesn’t help us after our rosters are set, but it does help set expectations moving forward.

As we head into Week 2, our range of outcomes from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr can be reasonably outlined. Once again, we’ll look to the weekend forecast to identify any concerns that should be on our radar.


Below are the games -- as of Friday afternoon -- with weather concerns we need to take note of for Week 2.

Game Temp Feels Like Chance of Precip Wind
Colts at Titans 92.5 94.3 0% 5.3 MPH NE
Vikings at Packers 73.8 75.3 15% 8.8 MPH WSW
Patriots at Dolphins 89.3 100.3 55% 12 MPH SSW
Chiefs at Raiders 69.3 69.3 6% 16.5 MPH W

Games Impacted By Heat

Indianapolis Colts (23.75-point implied total) at Tennessee Titans (20.75)

New England Patriots (33) at Miami Dolphins (14.5)

Let’s do a quick review. We discussed the impacts of elevated temperatures in the Week 1 report. The historical data is provided below.

Temp Games That Hit the Over Pass Attempts Per Game
80-85 51% 68.8
85-90 46% 68.8
90-95 47% 65.4
95-100 33% 59.3
100+ 0% 57.5

Now, let’s compare that to the outcomes from last week’s games that we impacted by heat.

Game Over/Under Game Temp Total Pass Attempts
Rams at Panthers Over 87 77
Chiefs at Jaguars Over 91 66
Ravens at Dolphins Over 91 52
49ers at Buccaneers Under 93 63

While recorded passing volume generally tracks with historical data, the number of games that went over their projected total were slightly higher. This lends more credence to the idea that game script played a larger role in most cases. However, Mike Evans was spotted leaving the game multiple times as his illness coupled with the weather affected his play. Albert Wilson suffered a calf injury shortly after making his debut. While the weather wasn’t the catalyst, fantasy managers should consider high temperatures a contributing factor as the season continues.

The high temperatures and drop in pass attempts call the Indianapolis-Tennessee game into question. Both teams ranked in the bottom eight for pass percentage in Week 1 (29th and 26th, respectively). The game already projects to be one of the lower-scoring games on the slate (44.5-point total). Any impacts to either passing game via high temperatures would limit the projected output for the players involved.

The same issue exists for New England-Miami tilt, which also includes a 55% chance of rain. Fantasy managers with Patriots’ assets are excited given dreadful Miami’s Week 1 performance, but the game has all the makings weather-wise to fall short of expectations.

Games Impacted By Rain

Minnesota Vikings (20.25-point implied total) at Green Bay Packers (22.75)

Again, let’s start with a review of games impacted by rain from a historical perspective.

Condition Games That Hit the Over Pass Attempts Per Game
Mist 34.8% 86.5
Light Drizzle 33.3% 68
Light Rain 37.0% 69.9
Rain 25.0% 60.1
Heavy Rain* 75.0% 79.5

Heavy rainfall has a lack of samples skewing the results, but a game’s total shouldn’t be impacted by possible rainfall.

In Week 1, Cleveland had no recorded reports of rain (although Baker Mayfield owners would have liked an excuse to provide hope). However, light rain was recorded during the second half of the Cincinnati-Seattle game. Andy Dalton was intercepted as the ball slipped from his fingers, and Tyler Boyd slipped on the turf, negating a likely touchdown.

Even without extreme conditions, these singular events swung the game and the output of each player. They’re unpredictable events, but like elevated temperatures, they are a reason for exercising caution in the future.

Minnesota-Green Bay is the only other game with projected rain aside from the Dolphins-Pats battle. In past years, Kirk Cousins has gone over his seasonal pass attempt average in 66.6% of games with light rain projected. However, the main concern is his lack of volume in Week 1 during a blowout win over the Atlanta Falcons. Minnesota’s preference to run the ball will play a larger role regardless of how the weather behaves.

On the opposite side, Rodgers has performed similarly (50% of games over his seasonal average) when there is light rain in the forecast. Minnesota’s tough defense presents a challenge similar to the one Rodgers got from the Chicago Bears from Week 1.

Games Impacted By Wind

Kansas City Chiefs (30-point implied total) at Oakland Raiders (22.5)

Historical trends have shown that wind speeds over 15 miles per hour cause the greatest impact on passing volume.

Wind Speed Pass Attempts
0-5 69.12
5-10 68.82
10-15 68.7
15-20 65.6

On top of that, concern over wind has two components: speed and direction. Weather forecasts currently project 17 MPH wind speeds blowing west for the KC-Oakland clash. The Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum is 35 degrees off of being straight North-South, so the wind would be a crosswind, which can be difficult to adjust to.

Derek Carr is a streaming options at quarterback headed into Week 2, and this will be a super popular game in DFS. Carr has averaged 11.8 fantasy points in games with projected wind speeds over 15 MPH. While the offense delivered a statement game in Week 1, temper expectations even with the opportunity matchup.