Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 6

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 6's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team Pass Att Rush Att Ratio +/- 6 Ratio RZ Plays RZ Ratio GL Plays GL Ratio
ARI 139 99 1.40 1.04 20 0.82 5 0.67
ATL 190 115 1.65 1.97 53 1.41 14 0.75
BAL 232 139 1.67 2.10 60 1.14 14 0.56
BUF 141 141 1.00 0.70 31 0.72 8 1.67
CAR 130 122 1.07 1.19 32 0.78 9 0.50
CHI 130 116 1.12 1.06 37 1.85 12 2.00
CIN 187 110 1.70 1.48 49 1.58 11 1.20
CLE 191 157 1.22 1.37 34 0.79 14 0.56
DAL 144 130 1.11 0.97 36 1.25 8 1.67
DEN 192 123 1.56 1.42 42 1.21 11 0.83
DET 197 114 1.73 1.76 39 2.00 7 1.33
GB 216 111 1.95 1.22 39 2.55 8 7.00
HOU 192 145 1.32 1.52 70 1.41 25 2.13
IND 246 101 2.44 2.37 55 2.93 11 4.50
JAX 211 122 1.73 1.50 38 1.38 9 3.50
KC 176 136 1.29 1.26 57 1.59 19 0.90
LAC 174 126 1.38 1.08 56 1.00 15 0.88
LAR 167 144 1.16 1.29 79 0.88 20 0.43
MIA 135 114 1.18 1.47 22 0.69 1 No Rush
MIN 226 96 2.35 1.55 33 2.67 7 2.50
NE 179 137 1.31 1.33 52 1.00 8 0.60
NO 192 127 1.51 1.80 87 1.29 20 0.67
NYG 188 98 1.92 1.84 37 1.47 6 1.00
NYJ 149 137 1.09 1.18 40 0.74 6 1.00
OAK 202 124 1.63 1.36 60 1.61 12 1.40
PHI 205 125 1.64 1.61 62 1.21 7 0.40
PIT 215 110 1.95 1.54 47 2.13 12 0.50
SEA 142 143 0.99 0.95 26 1.00 7 0.75
SF 180 137 1.31 1.27 62 1.21 18 1.00
TB 149 91 1.64 1.36 35 1.92 11 2.67
TEN 150 145 1.03 1.06 34 1.13 7 0.75
WAS 135 117 1.15 1.35 40 0.67 13 0.18

Minnesota now ranks 31st in rush attempts this year, with the last-ranked team, Tampa Bay, having had their bye already. As a result, the Vikings have the second-highest pass-to-rush attempt ratio in football, trailing only Indianapolis. The difference between those two teams, though, is that the Vikings neutral game script (when the game is within six points) pass-to-run ratio is eighth-highest in the league, whereas the Colts still rank first. In other words, the Vikings probably want to run the ball more than they have.

Give credit to offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and the Seahawks: they wanted to run the ball this year, and they have. They're last in pass-to-rush attempt ratio, and their neutral script rate is second-to-last. The problem is that the offense hasn't been super effective, posting 26.5 yards per drive, sixth-worst in the NFL. The run-heavy approach combined with a split backfield has really hurt fantasy assets on that team.

The Miami Dolphins have run just one goal-line play this year. That's almost hard to believe considering they've played all five weeks. For some context, every other team -- including the Cardinals -- have run at least five goal-line plays, while Houston leads the league with 25. This is something that's been common under Adam Gase. In 2016 and 2017, no team ran fewer goal-line plays than the Miami Dolphins. Had this been just a five-game sample, I may scream, "Variance!" But we're looking at a multi-year theme here, and it's hurting Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake tremendously.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team Adj NEP Adj Pass NEP Adj Rush NEP Adj D NEP Adj D Pass NEP Adj D Rush NEP
ARI -14.74 -1.64 -13.41 5.43 15.66 -4.03
ATL 53.21 47.34 -2.29 68.30 50.92 20.13
BAL 40.15 36.18 -2.36 -21.83 0.79 -16.73
BUF -37.78 -29.18 -4.29 4.09 10.85 -7.63
CAR 19.39 14.18 6.10 23.57 25.91 4.29
CHI 25.44 12.55 8.31 -6.40 -2.49 -5.86
CIN 58.51 50.32 1.97 22.18 11.52 12.47
CLE -0.84 -17.90 13.04 -30.66 -22.60 -6.15
DAL -3.30 -14.98 14.79 25.00 32.45 -8.66
DEN 29.60 17.77 16.20 42.99 35.49 9.82
DET 27.76 28.12 6.79 65.38 44.81 15.72
GB 27.11 22.32 12.34 30.14 22.19 8.06
HOU 30.66 40.41 -8.64 42.17 63.17 -18.77
IND 19.28 17.72 -6.75 30.19 22.39 7.09
JAX 9.33 23.95 -0.90 -14.10 -6.39 -10.99
KC 95.55 76.87 16.67 65.62 29.67 27.33
LAC 102.36 76.94 16.96 28.60 13.31 19.68
LAR 51.81 58.32 0.08 25.57 29.05 1.05
MIA -6.49 8.96 -8.48 23.33 19.11 -3.50
MIN 35.86 50.90 -13.49 36.32 40.98 -5.44
NE 51.02 41.19 12.34 27.65 31.60 -1.00
NO 70.47 65.25 -0.15 49.70 46.68 -4.26
NYG 14.15 5.10 7.48 24.28 16.86 8.14
NYJ 6.29 8.33 4.29 12.34 18.07 -8.49
OAK 30.04 35.33 -0.60 51.58 46.75 9.95
PHI -6.06 -14.93 3.61 17.79 12.17 -1.79
PIT 30.08 38.45 -4.49 11.45 1.26 5.53
SEA 23.85 17.78 4.27 10.52 14.99 -11.73
SF -11.26 -7.03 -10.28 29.91 14.06 1.09
TB 43.67 51.35 -1.93 55.91 58.64 -0.22
TEN -0.31 -1.61 5.62 30.79 27.57 10.16
WAS 17.82 4.31 7.46 23.11 12.13 16.33

As it stands today, the Cleveland Browns have the best defense in football. Now, before you roll your eyes, much of it has to do with turnovers and sacks -- the Browns have 15 takeaways this year, and opponents have lost the sixth-most expected points due to sacks against them. Sacks and turnovers will swing things pretty drastically in any expected points model. Even still, the Browns have held all but one opponent to 21 or fewer points, which is pretty impressive in today's NFL.

Tampa Bay had the worst secondary according to NEP last week, and while they're still bad (they didn't play), Houston now ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP. They're actually just 11th-worst in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position, but context is key: they've faced Blaine Gabbert, Eli Manning, and Dak Prescott this year. The two good fantasy signal-callers to go up against Houston, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck, scored 21.3 and 35.7 fantasy points, respectively.

Team Directional Passing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

The Vikings have been surprisingly bad against the pass this year. You can see in the chart above -- they're Arizona's opponent in Week 6 -- that they've allowed below-average marks across the field, and they rank in the bottom-10 against the pass according to NEP, too. To be fair, they have faced some good quarterbacks, including Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, and Carson Wentz. They should still be started against the Cardinals this week, and the matchup shouldn't make Josh Rosen a streamer. He's got to prove to be reliable before we trot him out in our lineup.

The top streaming option this week is easily Jameis Winston. The Falcons have allowed the 10th-highest Success Rate -- the percentage of positive expected point plays -- to wide receivers this year (Winston has some pret-tay good wideouts to throw to), and they've faced the ninth-highest pass-to-rush ratio against this season. On a per-play basis, only four teams are allowing more expected points through the air. And only Nick Foles has failed to rank as a top-10 passer against the injured Falcons D this year. With a high over/under in Atlanta this week, Winston is in a great spot.

On paper, Baker Mayfield looks to be in a decent place this week as well. The Chargers have sort of underachieved against the pass, allowing below average per-play marks across all areas of the field. They've allowed the third-most 15-plus air yard plays this year, making for an interesting matchup against Antonio Callaway, who could get more run due to an injury to Rashard Higgins. The only issue is that Mayfield hasn't been totally consistent. You'll get that with a rookie. He has a 44.4% Success Rate, which is fifth-worst in football among the 31 quarterbacks with 100 or more drop backs. So he's a tad unsafe, making him a deeper streamer.

The Tennessee passing attack hasn't really gotten it going this year, and it's going to be tough for them to perform well in their Week 6 matchup. Baltimore has numberFire's fourth-ranked secondary, and they rank first in Success Rate allowed to wide receivers and second to running backs. Tennessee doesn't utilize their tight ends much at all, making things even more difficult. You can probably bench someone like Corey Davis this week. Good things are to come as the Titans' schedule opens up down the stretch.

As annoying as the Seahawks' offense has been, they've got a matchup this week that they should be able to win. The Raiders have allowed the second-highest net yards per attempt in football and, as you can see in the chart, they've been pretty bad on a yards per play basis pretty much all over the field. numberFire's metrics have them as the fifth-worst secondary in football as a result.

The thing is, this doesn't make Russell Wilson a slam dunk play. He has some touchdown regression coming (his 7.0% touchdown rate is a good bit higher than his career average), and Oakland's been just as bad against the run, ranking in the bottom five in expected points allowed on a per rush basis. Wilson is fine if you've got him, but the ceiling is still limited since he's only been running the ball a little over two times per game versus this six rush attempts per game rate he had last year.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

New England Patriot running backs -- so Sony Michel and James White -- are both great options this week in fantasy football. The Chiefs have been the absolute worst team against running backs this year, allowing a 56.2% Success Rate on the ground. That's the worst in football. But they've also been bad at defending backs through the air, having surrendered the second-highest Success Rate to receiving backs. So Michel should be able to take advantage with his rushing volume, while White is a good play given his crazy target share in the offense.

One team that's been not-so-great against the run despite strong personnel up front is the Rams. They've allowed the second-worst per-rush efficiency on the ground this year when adjusted for strength of opponent, and as the chart shows (they play Denver this week), their yards per play allowed hasn't been very good. We know LA should be able to put up points, but don't be shocked if the Broncos, who are playing at home, can move the ball on them as well.

Among backs who've run 20-plus attempts up the middle, Chris Carson has the third-best yards per carry average. As I just mentioned, Russell Wilson has a good matchup against Oakland's secondary, but the between-the-guards runs for Seattle should work well against a Raiders defense that's giving up almost six yards per carry on those types of rushes. Carson could be in store for a strong outing.

The Bills may end up being pretty one-dimensional against the Texans this week, and that's not a good thing. I mentioned earlier that the Texans rank last against the pass according to numberFire's expected points model, but they're first against the run. Buffalo, meanwhile, has been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league with a 1.00 pass-to-rush ratio and a 0.70 ratio in neutral game scripts. If they're unable to get things going on the ground, they'll be forced to try and win the game with Josh Allen's arm. And so far this year, that hasn't been effective: no player has a lower Success Rate through the air. Perhaps he can get it done with his legs for fantasy purposes, though, like we saw against the Vikings a few weeks back.

Running Back Usage

PlayerAttRush %TargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ AttRZ TargetsGL Att
Alvin Kamara6248.82%5126.56%75.4%47%20165
Todd Gurley10170.14%2514.97%87.4%100%32813
Melvin Gordon7357.94%3821.84%71.8%70.3%1191
Saquon Barkley7172.45%3920.74%81.2%85.7%1143
James Conner8476.36%2813.02%84.6%73.8%1237
Ezekiel Elliott9371.54%2920.14%87.4%80.6%1253
James White2316.79%4424.58%53%60.9%590
T.J. Yeldon5948.36%3315.64%69.2%92.8%1042
Christian McCaffrey6351.64%3224.62%94.1%97.2%822
Kareem Hunt9368.38%95.11%66.3%74.3%1236
David Johnson7474.75%2215.83%83.8%94.1%943
Isaiah Crowell5741.61%85.37%42.3%40.3%1002
Carlos Hyde10063.69%105.24%52.8%35%1519
Nyheim Hines3332.67%3514.23%59.2%67.5%630
Austin Ekeler3426.98%179.77%34.1%35.9%832
Marshawn Lynch7762.10%157.43%50.4%40.4%1553
Matt Breida4935.77%137.22%38.2%13.3%831
Javorius Allen3424.46%2711.64%48.6%57.5%1035
Chris Thompson2319.66%3122.96%53.8%65.6%342
Adrian Peterson6051.28%96.67%40.7%21.3%1306
Phillip Lindsay5746.34%126.25%34.2%37.7%1023
Kenyan Drake3934.21%2518.52%62.4%64.1%510
Tevin Coleman6153.04%147.37%57.4%37.5%722
Joe Mixon6054.55%126.42%50%78.3%1023
Dion Lewis5537.93%2516.67%61.6%63%611
Giovani Bernard3430.91%2111.23%57.2%0%612
Kerryon Johnson5043.86%157.61%39.8%46.8%320
Alex Collins5741.01%146.03%41.9%31%853
Bilal Powell5943.07%1610.74%52.8%54.8%811
Tarik Cohen2723.28%1612.31%39.9%N/A430
Royce Freeman4939.84%63.13%34.8%39%802
Jalen Richard97.26%2914.36%34.8%50%131
Mike Davis3625.17%85.63%34.1%41.7%702
Wendell Smallwood2520.00%157.32%32.2%49.2%351
Sony Michel6748.91%63.35%37.5%40.6%1704
Chris Carson6444.76%96.34%51.2%58.3%411
Jordan Howard6455.17%129.23%65.3%N/A723
Jay Ajayi4536.00%62.93%42%49.2%1124
Kyle Juszczyk10.73%2011.11%62.9%69.4%040
Lamar Miller5840.00%105.21%54.9%0%1212
Theo Riddick87.02%3015.23%39.8%30.6%250
Alfred Morris6245.26%105.56%41%44.9%1207
Alfred Blue4933.79%126.25%43.2%98.8%622
Ty Montgomery2018.02%188.33%32.5%35.8%210
Ito Smith2118.26%94.74%20.4%16.7%1023
LeSean McCoy4531.91%1611.35%58.6%72.3%400
Jamaal Williams5347.75%136.02%48.2%40.7%410
Frank Gore4741.23%42.96%39.1%40.6%410
Corey Clement2721.60%104.88%31.2%0%800
Chris Ivory4531.91%64.26%34.8%27.7%301
Duke Johnson1710.83%178.90%41.8%51.2%110
Aaron Jones2421.62%52.31%30.1%27.2%201
LeGarrette Blount4741.23%31.52%26.1%29%803
Jordan Wilkins4443.56%104.07%36.3%21.7%341
Devontae Booker118.94%178.85%31.6%28.6%010
Latavius Murray3031.25%114.87%46.8%74.2%300
Dalvin Cook3637.50%125.31%57.3%N/A401
Nick Chubb138.28%10.52%6.7%13.8%100
Derrick Henry6544.83%53.33%40.3%38.9%912
Mark Ingram1612.60%31.56%54.5%54.5%303

On Tuesday morning, my mentions were filled with people asking if they should trade Alvin Kamara. And the reason was that, on Monday night, Kamara wasn't heavily involved with Mark Ingram back in the mix. The table shows this -- Ingram played more snaps, and he saw three goal-line rushes. Kamara's season-long snap rate is over 75%, but on Monday, it was 47%.

Don't panic. Please, don't panic. The Saints are going to split that backfield up, but we knew that coming into the season. Just because Kamara won't see the same type of usage that he saw in Weeks 1 through 4 doesn't mean he won't be a reliable fantasy football asset. The truth is, it sort of made sense to rest him a bit in Week 5. New Orleans has a bye in Week 6, Ingram was well rested himself, and Kamara was on the injury report last week with a knee injury. He should still be an RB1 from here on out considering the offense he's in and the type of target and rushing share he'll see in games that aren't blowouts.

It was a negative game script for the Colts in Week 5, but Nyheim Hines was their dude from the start. He ended up playing 67.5% of the team's snaps, and he was close to scoring near the end of the game. The problem is, when Marlon Mack returns, Hines will be pushed back to being more of a third-down back for Indy. Keep that in mind moving forward.

Derrick Henry is the 59th-ranked running back in PPR formats despite seeing 65 carries this year. He's got a pair of goal-line rushes, but it hasn't been enough to keep him afloat week to week. With just a 3.3% target share, he's droppable in shallower leagues. Arguably deeper ones, too.

Even with the return of Devonta Freeman this past week, Atlanta had a big split in the backfield. Freeman played roughly 39% of Atlanta's snaps, Tevin Coleman was on the field for 37.5% of them, and rookie Ito Smith played 16.7% of them. Freeman never played fewer than 52.8% of Atlanta's snaps last season, so this is definitely a concern. The hope is that he'll see more work as he gets healthier, but if Smith plays 15% to 20% of the Falcons' snaps each week, Freeman and Coleman will suffer big time.

Cleveland's backfield looked a little different in Week 5. Duke Johnson led the way with a 51.2% snap share, the highest mark of his season. Carlos Hyde played 35% of the team's snaps, when his previous season low was 52.8%. And Nick Chubb had a 13.8% snap share, a season high.

This all hints at a slow transition to get Chubb more involved, and the pass-catching Johnson may get more love as well with the injury to Rashard Higgins. At the very least, it's not good news for the touchdown-dependent Carlos Hyde.

Wide Receiver Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Adam Thielen6629.20%97.4%96.8%722
Michael Thomas4925.52%90.1%77.3%1273
DeAndre Hopkins5729.69%99.7%100%984
Cooper Kupp4124.55%89.2%54.5%1170
Davante Adams5525.46%96.1%87.7%1021
Antonio Brown6630.70%95.2%93.4%930
Stefon Diggs5524.34%85.3%85.5%411
Odell Beckham5931.38%95.3%92.9%611
Robert Woods4124.55%97.9%100%543
Golden Tate5125.89%79.2%77.4%221
A.J. Green4322.99%83.9%85%1154
Juju Smith-Schuster5324.65%85.4%82%1543
Julio Jones5528.95%77.6%73.6%321
Tyreek Hill3922.16%87%91.4%521
Emmanuel Sanders4422.92%88.4%94.8%420
Kenny Golladay4120.81%89.9%79%552
Mike Evans3926.17%81.6%N/A211
Calvin Ridley2613.68%60.6%65.3%510
Tyler Boyd4322.99%80.2%75%500
Tyler Lockett2819.72%91.5%86.7%100
Brandin Cooks3319.76%86.2%42.4%731
DeSean Jackson2214.77%52.1%N/A100
John Brown4418.97%68.3%67.8%531
Jarvis Landry5729.84%92.1%100%753
Keenan Allen4525.86%83.3%76.6%531
Sterling Shepard3619.15%94%100%632
Jordy Nelson2813.86%86.1%90.4%531
Corey Davis4530.00%86.3%90.7%652
Will Fuller2814.58%75.4%96.2%332
Demaryius Thomas3920.31%76.5%61%422
Dede Westbrook3315.64%68.1%73.5%000
T.Y. Hilton3815.45%81.2%N/A644
Geronimo Allison2913.43%74.8%N/A310
Mohamed Sanu3116.32%80.8%81.9%311
Nelson Agholor4320.98%93%88.1%621
Mike Williams2212.64%64.7%70.3%420
Marvin Jones3316.75%93.2%93.5%861
Albert Wilson2317.04%59.9%90.6%100
Amari Cooper3014.85%87.2%96.2%430
Sammy Watkins2916.48%70.7%85.7%610
Keelan Cole3416.11%83.5%89.2%400
Kenny Stills2417.78%90.7%93.8%110
Taylor Gabriel2922.31%83.4%N/A543
Michael Crabtree4619.83%74.6%82.8%520
Quincy Enunwa4228.19%80.3%77.4%720
Ryan Grant3112.60%79.2%81.9%311
Willie Snead3314.22%61.3%77%200
Donte Moncrief3617.06%76.9%81.9%543
Chris Godwin2214.77%54.8%N/A663
Phillip Dorsett2916.20%76.9%60.9%521
Christian Kirk2417.27%71.4%62.7%000
Devin Funchess2821.54%83.1%71.8%421
Robby Anderson2114.09%66.6%51.6%000
Allen Robinson3224.62%93%N/A522
Rashard Higgins2312.04%61%38.8%100
Chester Rogers3213.01%66.4%77.1%300
Randall Cobb2712.50%91.3%N/A200
Ted Ginn2211.46%60.9%N/A411
Tyrell Williams1910.92%76.5%71.9%111
Keke Coutee2211.46%58.8%71.2%211

Marvin Jones has been outplayed by Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay thus far in 2018, but he's still got loads of touchdown upside in the Detroit offense. Only seven wide receivers have more red-zone targets, just three have more targets from inside the opponent's 10, and he's tied for the NFL lead in end zone targets. So even with a sub-17% target share, Jones is still a weekly starter in most leagues.

We saw a big outing from Robby Anderson in Week 5, but it's always important to not favor one single game above a larger sample size. The truth is, Anderson hasn't been all that helpful this year. He still has just a 14% target share, and he's yet to see a red-zone target. If you're able to sell him this week, feel free.

Kenny Stills' near 18% target share isn't so bad, but it needs to be higher for him to be consistently usable in an offense like Miami's. Of all teams without a bye week, Miami has thrown the fewest passes in the league. And Stills has just a single red-zone target. You can't play him until we see more from that O.

Last year, Cooper Kupp finished tied for third in the NFL in red-zone targets. That usage has continued into 2018, with only JuJu Smith-Schuster and Michael Thomas ranking ahead of him in targets from within the opponent's 20. To go along with a near-25% target share, there's a reason he's been a plug-and-play option to start the year. Things aren't likely to just simply regress unless the Rams offense hits a wall, which seems unlikely.

Tight End Usage

PlayerTargetsTarget %Snap %Last Wk RateRZ Targets< 10 TargetsGL Targets
Zach Ertz5828.29%96.8%96.6%841
Travis Kelce4626.14%95.6%94.3%732
Eric Ebron4518.29%64%71.1%1242
Jared Cook4120.30%84.4%90.4%1193
George Kittle3519.44%82%88.8%633
Kyle Rudolph2711.95%86.7%87.1%311
Rob Gronkowski3117.32%89.2%91.3%100
Jimmy Graham3616.67%82.9%81.5%422
Austin Hooper2714.21%82.2%76.4%431
Jesse James146.51%59.3%59%100
Trey Burton1914.62%83.4%N/A322
O.J. Howard1711.41%58.6%N/A100
David Njoku3417.80%83.8%90%000
Tyler Eifert1910.16%49.1%N/A200
Jordan Reed2216.30%58.2%63.9%211
Vance McDonald177.91%53.3%60.7%100
Geoff Swaim1913.19%93.2%95.2%222
Ben Watson2211.46%64.6%54.5%531
Will Dissly149.86%49.2%N/A211
Mark Andrews166.90%35.7%37.9%311
Rhett Ellison147.45%67.7%98.2%200
Dallas Goedert146.83%41.9%59.3%300
Ricky Seals-Jones2517.99%80.3%66.7%110
Antonio Gates169.20%34.7%35.9%333
Maxx Williams146.03%44.4%31%330
C.J. Uzomah105.35%65%91.7%111
Josh Hill84.17%55.9%57.6%111
Evan Engram136.91%68.2%N/A100
Austin Seferian-Jenkins209.48%63%27.7%222
Virgil Green95.17%66.6%71.9%311

It was C.J. Uzomah who ran the most routes at tight end for Cincinnati last week, and while he only saw a pair of targets, he's an interesting play this week against Pittsburgh, who've struggled against the position. If you need a streamer, you could look his way in a high-scoring game.

With Jack Doyle sidelined, Eric Ebron has been crushing it. He now leads all tight ends with 12 red-zone looks, and he's scored more fantasy points than any other player at the position not named Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz. Because the Colts are passing so much, Ebron's 18.3% target share has yielded just one fewer target compared to Kelce, who has a 26.1% share. Just keep in mind that the Colts are unlikely to keep up this passing pace, and Doyle's return will dramatically hurt Ebron's target share. Ebron's unlikely to keep this up.

Vance McDonald was starting to separate himself from Jesse James in the Steelers' offense. In Week 4, he ran 32 routes versus James' 11 (per Pro Football Focus) but this past Sunday, that split fell to 19 versus 15. Game script may have been a factor, but it's not a good sign that you need the Steelers to be in a negative script in order to see Vance McDonald with a good fantasy outing. He's still in streaming territory, unfortunately.

Jared Cook's two big performances are boosting his overall fantasy point totals, but his peripherals are strong enough for him to be considered an every-week starter. Only the aforementioned Ebron has more red-zone looks than Cook at the position, and Cook has five more targets from within the opponent's 10-yard line than any other tight end. Keep using him.

Deep Ball Passing

Player15+ Yd Att15+ Yd Att %15+ Comp %15+ % of Tot Yds15+ Yd TD %
Andrew Luck3614.69%44.44%24.88%8.33%
Joe Flacco3716.30%35.14%25.81%25.00%
Kirk Cousins3013.27%46.67%24.82%54.55%
Ben Roethlisberger3717.21%37.84%25.54%45.45%
Blake Bortles3516.59%42.86%27.15%25.00%
Aaron Rodgers4019.23%37.50%31.68%20.00%
Derek Carr2612.87%53.85%25.29%28.57%
Deshaun Watson3719.27%43.24%26.53%25.00%
Case Keenum3719.27%45.95%33.85%40.00%
Matthew Stafford2814.66%46.43%29.96%20.00%
Drew Brees2814.74%60.71%29.01%27.27%
Andy Dalton3016.04%50.00%29.69%33.33%
Eli Manning3317.65%48.48%27.08%33.33%
Matt Ryan3720.22%45.95%33.67%36.36%
Tom Brady3217.88%34.38%22.72%25.00%
Patrick Mahomes4223.86%47.62%38.20%28.57%
Philip Rivers3218.39%46.88%25.69%30.77%
Jared Goff3118.67%61.29%33.12%41.67%
Sam Darnold2818.79%46.43%36.59%57.14%
Dak Prescott1711.81%41.18%26.01%20.00%
Russell Wilson2618.31%38.46%29.83%70.00%
Alex Smith2216.30%45.45%29.94%25.00%
Cam Newton2620.00%34.62%24.92%14.29%
Mitch Trubisky2519.23%44.00%38.10%25.00%
Ryan Fitzpatrick3627.91%55.56%49.34%45.45%
Ryan Tannehill2217.05%27.27%21.40%50.00%
Josh Allen3226.23%21.88%27.41%50.00%
Carson Wentz1915.57%47.37%29.43%40.00%
Baker Mayfield2422.43%54.17%42.00%66.67%
Marcus Mariota1918.45%36.84%28.70%0.00%
C.J. Beathard99.89%55.56%25.04%25.00%
Jimmy Garoppolo1415.73%42.86%25.91%40.00%
Tyrod Taylor2226.19%31.82%49.13%50.00%
Nick Foles1417.07%21.43%18.18%0.00%
Sam Bradford1215.00%41.67%35.50%100.00%
Josh Rosen1627.12%37.50%47.93%100.00%

Andrew Luck's deep-ball tendencies are changing. In this column two weeks ago, Luck was throwing it 15-plus air yards on 10.5% of his throws. Today, that number is 14.69%. He's thrown 121 passes over the last two weeks, and 23 of them have traveled 15 or more yards through the air. That's good for a 19.0% rate, which would rank close to the top-10 among relevant quarterbacks this season. This is a great sign for his future performances. And it's definitely a good look for T.Y. Hilton, who's seen his lowest career average depth of target by far this season.

It's looking like Josh Rosen is willing to sling it. And we couldn't say that about Sam Bradford. Rosen has thrown it deep on more than 27% of his throws this year, which ranks second behind only Ryan Fitzpatrick. That should help the offense as the season progresses.

In 2017, Tom Brady had the fifth-best completion percentage on deep passes. This year, he's fifth-worst. His completion rate has dropped from 45.4% to 34.4%, and his average depth of target has fallen by half a yard. The combination of the two has resulted in a less effective offense, but the hope is that slot wideout Julian Edelman and field-stretcher Josh Gordon can help turn things around. And things should. We're talking about Tom Brady, after all.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

PlayerRush YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceRec YdsTDShould HaveDifferenceTotal Difference
Todd Gurley41572.784.2223021.010.995.22
James White11010.740.2627041.182.823.08
David Johnson24241.622.3812010.520.482.86
Javorius Allen9630.642.3613110.570.432.78
Melvin Gordon33432.240.7626131.141.862.62
Carlos Hyde34852.332.672900.13-0.132.54
Alvin Kamara29952.003.0035111.54-0.542.46
Isaiah Crowell39052.612.393600.16-0.162.23
Kareem Hunt37642.521.486610.290.712.19
Saquon Barkley30832.060.9427421.200.801.74
Mike Davis17231.151.853600.16-0.161.69
Jay Ajayi18431.231.772000.09-0.091.68
James Conner34252.292.7123901.05-1.051.67
Giovani Bernard15531.041.967800.34-0.341.62
Nyheim Hines9910.660.3416420.721.281.62
Mark Ingram5320.351.652000.09-0.091.56
TJ Yeldon25811.73-0.7319430.852.151.42
Royce Freeman25031.671.332100.09-0.091.23
Alex Collins21721.450.557710.340.661.21
Ito Smith8020.541.466700.29-0.291.17
LeGarrette Blount11720.781.221400.06-0.061.16
Dion Lewis17711.18-0.1813000.57-0.57-0.75
Rashaad Penny9200.62-0.623500.15-0.15-0.77
Theo Riddick3000.20-0.2013800.60-0.60-0.80
Alfred Morris22811.53-0.536600.29-0.29-0.81
Matt Breida36912.47-1.479010.390.61-0.86
Ezekiel Elliott48023.21-1.2115510.680.32-0.89
Duke Johnson7500.50-0.509100.40-0.40-0.90
Latavius Murray10600.71-0.716000.26-0.26-0.97
Peyton Barber14800.99-0.991300.06-0.06-1.05
Jalen Richard2900.19-0.1920500.90-0.90-1.09
Dalvin Cook9800.66-0.6610700.47-0.47-1.12
Kerryon Johnson28611.91-0.916800.30-0.30-1.21
Bilal Powell26401.77-1.7710510.460.54-1.23
Chris Carson29311.96-0.966100.27-0.27-1.23
Ty Montgomery8700.58-0.5815800.69-0.69-1.27
Jordan Wilkins17501.17-1.173400.15-0.15-1.32
LeSean McCoy17001.14-1.146400.28-0.28-1.42
Jamaal Williams19501.31-1.314700.21-0.21-1.51
Derrick Henry21901.47-1.471200.05-0.05-1.52
Christian McCaffrey32902.20-2.2019210.840.16-2.04

Todd Gurley has scored over five more touchdowns than he should have so far this season based on his yardage totals. Yes, he's in a good offense. And, yes, his usage close to the end zone has been bananas. But don't expect Gurley to score the 28 or 29 touchdowns that he's pacing towards right now. He's still the single best player in fantasy football, even with some touchdown regression coming.

Another player who's taking advantage of awesome usage at running back is James White. He's only carrying about 17% of New England's rushing attempts, but he's captured a near 25% target share this season, the third-highest at the position. Even if his target share regresses slightly -- which it should considering Edelman's return -- White should give you a solid floor each week.

But don't assume White can just keep scoring the way he has, even if he's in a good offense. He's scored four times through the air, when a running back with 270 receiving yards has historically had 1.2 receiving touchdowns. You can say it's because of his red-zone looks, but Alvin Kamara has seven more red-zone targets than White and has scored once. Melvin Gordon has just as many and has one fewer receiving touchdown than White. Gurley has one fewer target in the red zone, and he's scored half the number of touchdowns.

Regression doesn't mean a player is going to start performing poorly. It just means that he won't be able to maintain his current pace. And that's the case with White, who should still be considered a higher-end RB2 in PPR formats.

David Johnson was featured in this week's 15 Transactions column as a sell candidate, and his touchdown regression had a lot to do with it. Unlike other overachievers on this list like Gurley, White, and Gordon, Johnson isn't playing in an advantageous offense. Even if Rosen takes a step forward -- and he should -- we can't assume Johnson will keep up his scoring rate. That's a big reason he's a "sell" -- plenty of fantasy owners won't realize it.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

PlayerRec YdsTDShould HaveDifference
Calvin Ridley30261.814.19
Antonio Brown37352.242.76
AJ Green40952.452.55
Cooper Kupp43852.632.37
Tyler Lockett34742.081.92
Chris Godwin19331.161.84
Aldrick Robinson4220.251.75
Robby Anderson23131.391.61
Marvin Jones24131.451.55
Kenny Stills24131.451.55
David Moore7720.461.54
Chris Conley7920.471.53
John Ross7920.471.53
Mike Williams24931.491.51
Davante Adams42542.551.45
Kendrick Bourne9820.591.41
Josh Gordon9920.591.41
Cordarrelle Patterson10120.611.39
Will Fuller27831.671.33
Tavon Austin12520.751.25
Tre'Quan Smith12920.771.23
Ted Ginn13520.811.19
Chris Hogan14320.861.14
Jordy Nelson31731.901.10
Jakeem Grant15220.911.09
Amari Cooper28011.68-0.68
Juju Smith-Schuster45022.70-0.70
Keelan Cole29511.77-0.77
Danny Amendola15100.91-0.91
Zay Jones16400.98-0.98
Larry Fitzgerald17601.06-1.06
Dede Westbrook34912.09-1.09
Pierre Garcon18801.13-1.13
Cole Beasley19301.16-1.16
Corey Davis36112.16-1.16
Chester Rogers20001.20-1.20
Martavis Bryant20201.21-1.21
Keenan Allen37212.23-1.23
Jarvis Landry38112.28-1.28
Emmanuel Sanders38612.31-1.31
DeAndre Hopkins59423.56-1.56
Brandin Cooks45212.71-1.71
Odell Beckham Jr46212.77-1.77
Julio Jones56403.38-3.38

Another week, another Julio Jones scoreless stat line. Based on his yardage total, Jones should have between three and four touchdowns by now. His red-zone workload has been lacking, but it's still surprising that he hasn't found the end zone once. This could be his week, though, as he found the end zone twice against the Bucs last year, and they have one of the worst secondaries in football.

Jarvis Landry has scored just once this season despite ranking ninth in red-zone targets, sixth in targets within the opponent's 10-yard line, and fourth in goal-line targets. All the while, he's got the fourth-highest target share in football. Touchdowns are coming, especially considering the Browns have upcoming matchups against the Bucs, Steelers, Chiefs, and Falcons.