College Basketball Betting Guide: Wednesday 2/22/23
College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. The season is heating up as conference play winds down, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
Using our projections as a guide, which bets should you make via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Providence at Connecticut
Over 142.5 (-110)
Two of the nation's top offenses tangle in this one, and that has me on the over.
Connecticut and Providence rank 14th and 22nd in adjusted offense, per Barttorvik. KenPom thinks even more highly of these offenses, slotting UConn 12th and Providence 20th by its adjusted offense rankings.
The over is 6-4 in UConn's last 10 games. In the last seven Huskies games that had a total of at least 140.0 points, the over is 5-2. The over has hit in four of UConn's previous five home games.
The Friars have seen the over cash in three of their past five games, including two in a row.
When these two teams met earlier this year, the total was set at 142.5 points -- same as today's -- but they combined for just 134 points. However, both sides shot it really poorly -- each under 37% from the field, with UConn making just 22.7% from beyond the arc. The offenses should fare better today, and the fact that the total has been set at the same number tells us as much.
Our numbers think the total should be even higher, though. Our model projects 149.1 points to be scored. We give the over a 64.3% chance to win out. Barttorvik has the total at 146.0 points. The over is the side to be on, and it's the side that's taking more money as 59% of the handle is on the over.
Bucknell at Lehigh
Lehigh Moneyline (-176)
Both of these teams are pretty bad, but there are reasons to be on Lehigh to win outright.
Our nERD-baked rankings have Lehigh 288th and Bucknell 301st. KenPom (287th vs. 297th) and Barttorvik (273rd vs. 292nd) also give the Mountain Hawks a slight edge. When you add in that Lehigh is at home, it's easy to like the Hawks to get the win.
The reason I'm writing this up, though, is that Lehigh's -176 moneyline price sells them a bit short, according to our numbers.
Lehigh won by eight at Bucknell in early January, and that victory sparked a 10-4 stretch for the Mountain Hawks. They've been playing good ball.
Bucknell, meanwhile, has gone 4-14 over their last 18 games and has struggled mightily on the road all year, winning just 3 of its 14 road games.
The -176 moneyline implies win odds of 63.8%. Barttorvik has the Hawks winning 67% of the time, and we feel even more strongly about Lehigh, putting their win odds at 73.9%. The Hawks' moneyline is getting hammered, with 84% of the moneyline handle coming in on the Lehigh side. Jump on board.
Kentucky at Florida
Florida +2.5 (-120)
This is a matchup between two fairly even squads, so give me the home underdog.
Kentucky is the slightly better team. Our metrics have Kentucky 38th and Florida 52nd. Barttorvik (41st vs. 62nd) and KenPom (34th vs. 54th) also give UK the edge. But once you factor in the homecourt advantage, the Gators should be able to cover as 2.5-point 'dogs.
The Wildcats have been a difficult team to figure out this year. That's been summed up over their past three games, a stretch that started with a seven-point loss at Georgia -- ranked 135th by Barttorvik -- in a game in which UK was a 7.0-point favorite. To Kentucky's credit, they responded with back-to-back quality wins over Tennessee and Mississippi State, the latter of which came on the road.
Kentucky has been a road favorite four times this season, and they've gone 2-2 against the spread (ATS) in the split. When they've failed to cover, they've reallllly failed to cover, doing so by an average of 17.7 points in those two ATS losses.
Florida is 9-4 straight up at home this campaign. They're 4-1 ATS in their last five home contests. The Gators have been a home 'dog twice this year and have gone 1-1 both straight up and ATS -- beating the aforementioned Vols by 13 and losing by 21 to UConn.
Our algorithm and Barttorvik both like the Gators to win. We give them win odds of 56.4% while Barttorvik has Florida winning 58.0% of the time. Taking the Gators on the moneyline is a solid play. But Kentucky's decent track record on the road -- as well as the Cats' ability to be pretty dang good when they're on -- has me taking Florida to cover instead, something we project them to do 63.1% of the time.