GOLF

The Honda Classic: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

The designated field tag is gone for this week as the PGA Tour heads to Florida. How does that impact the field, daily fantasy golf picks, and golf bets to make?

This week, the PGA Tour swaps coasts and goes from California to Florida to start the Florida swing.

The Honda Classic loses "elevated" status, so the elite fields we've grown accustomed to the past two weeks are not a factor for this week at PGA National.

But the daily fantasy golf and golf betting opportunities still exist, so there's no reason to be down on the week even if the field itself is a step back.

Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks

PGA National Resort (The Champion) Course Info & Key Stats

Par: 70
Distance: 7,125 (about 100 yards shorter than the average par 70)
Fairway Width: 29.4 yards (16th-narrowest of 80 qualified courses)
Average Green Size: 7,000 square feet (~116% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Bermuda
Stimpmeter: N/A
Past 5 Winning Scores: -10, -12, -6, -9, -8,
Past 5 Cut Lines: +2, +1, +3, +2, +5
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Adjusted Strokes Gained

With distance not being a huge factor this week on the par 70, this is a pretty unique setup overall for the PGA Tour, especially compared to the birdie-friendly setups of the swing season and the more distance-friendly courses since the calendar flipped.

Notably, four of the past five events were decided by either a single stroke or a playoff; the -12 winning score from 2021 by Matt Jones was actually a five-shot victory. That kind of means that a truer winning score could've just as easily been -8, making the winning scores even "worse" relative to par.

The par 3s are really tough, via datagolf, and there isn't exactly a ton of reprieve on the par 4s, either. PGA National is pegged as the single hardest course to gain strokes from approach play on Tour -- and it's 8th-toughest off-the-tee.

Long approaches are common, and they're tough. That makes for a lack of scoring chances.

Penalties loom (15 holes have water in play), and there are 67 bunkers on the course.

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years (a "-" indicates a did-not-play situation):

- Byeong-Hun An (+1.81): -, MC, 4th, 38th, 5th
- Sepp Straka (+1.74): 1st, 33rd, 27th, MC, -
- Sungjae Im (+1.67): MC, 8th, 1st, 51st, -
- Sam Ryder (+1.41): 9th, 8th, 53rd, -, -
- Mark Hubbard (+1.41): 15th, 46th, 11th, -, -
- Cameron Davis (+1.21): -, 33rd, 8th, 59th, -
- Aaron Wise (+1.13): MC, 13th, 35th, -, 33rd
- Chris Kirk (+1.02): 7th, 25th, MC, MC, 33rd
- Adam Svensson (+1.00): 9th, -, -, 59th, -
- Ryan Palmer (+1.00): 70th, -, 17th, 4th, MC

Past winners in the field include Sepp Straka (2022), Sungjae Im (2020), Padraig Harrington (2005 and 2015), Rory Sabbatini (2011), Camilo Villegas (2010), Luke Donald (2006), Matt Kuchar (2002).

Win Simulations for The Honda Classic

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Sungjae
Im
$11,900 8.4% 30.0% 82.2% +700
Aaron
Wise
$11,600 4.6% 31.9% 79.3% +2500
Alex
Noren
$11,200 4.0% 28.5% 76.8% +2600
Billy
Horschel
$10,800 2.6% 22.8% 72.2% +3100
Min
Woo Lee
$11,000 2.5% 17.9% 66.0% +2400
Chris
Kirk
$11,400 2.5% 19.5% 68.5% +2200
Denny
McCarthy
$10,900 2.4% 19.6% 70.2% +2600
J.T.
Poston
$10,500 2.4% 20.6% 70.6% +3100
Shane
Lowry
$11,800 2.3% 19.1% 70.2% +1300
Matt
Kuchar
$11,100 2.3% 19.7% 70.3% +2200
Jhonattan
Vegas
$10,100 2.2% 15.6% 65.5% +3700
Adrian
Meronk
$9,900 2.0% 15.9% 63.6% +4000
Taylor
Pendrith
$10,600 2.0% 16.9% 67.7% +3100
Thomas
Detry
$10,400 1.9% 16.1% 62.6% +3100
Hayden
Buckley
$9,600 1.7% 14.4% 61.7% +5000
Nick
Hardy
$9,400 1.6% 15.1% 63.4% +6000
Cameron
Davis
$9,900 1.5% 15.2% 63.8% +4500
Brandon
Wu
$8,900 1.5% 13.1% 59.1% +9500
Lee
Hodges
$9,800 1.4% 12.7% 59.4% +4200
Christiaan
Bezuidenhout
$9,800 1.4% 15.0% 64.7% +4000
Stephan
Jaeger
$9,300 1.3% 12.0% 62.5% +5500
Davis
Riley
$8,700 1.3% 12.8% 61.1% +5500
Callum
Tarren
$8,600 1.3% 13.2% 59.2% +10000
William
Gordon
$9,100 1.3% 11.8% 59.0% +6000
Joseph
Bramlett
$9,300 1.2% 11.5% 61.0% +5000
Benjamin
Griffin
$9,200 1.2% 11.8% 58.1% +6000
Byeong
Hun An
$9,100 1.2% 10.5% 55.7% +4500
Robby
Shelton IV
$9,700 1.1% 11.0% 60.7% +5500
Adam
Svensson
$10,200 1.1% 10.2% 57.1% +3400
Ryan
Palmer
$9,400 1.0% 9.9% 55.5% +5500
Seonghyeon
Kim
$9,000 1.0% 10.5% 59.4% +7500
Aaron
Rai
$9,500 1.0% 9.4% 57.2% +6000
Sepp
Straka
$10,000 1.0% 10.0% 55.5% +4500
Justin
Suh
$9,500 1.0% 11.9% 61.2% +6000
Padraig
Harrington
$9,000 0.9% 6.8% 50.0% +5500
Adam
Schenk
$8,700 0.9% 8.8% 54.9% +13000
Mark
Hubbard
$8,600 0.9% 9.1% 57.6% +10000
Carl
Yuan
$8,100 0.9% 9.0% 55.4% +16000
Aaron
Baddeley
$8,400 0.8% 8.9% 53.1% +12000
Ben
Martin
$8,200 0.7% 8.1% 51.6% +15000
Greyson
Sigg
$8,700 0.7% 9.5% 58.4% +10000
Tyler
Duncan
$7,800 0.7% 6.6% 48.5% +28000
MJ
Daffue
$8,000 0.6% 7.6% 51.2% +15000
Russell
Knox
$8,800 0.6% 8.9% 57.0% +7000
Danny
Willett
$9,200 0.6% 7.6% 55.0% +5500
Erik
Barnes
$7,900 0.6% 6.8% 54.7% +14000
Chesson
Hadley
$8,200 0.6% 7.5% 54.7% +14000
Harris
English
$10,300 0.6% 6.2% 49.0% +3400
Danny
Lee
$8,100 0.6% 7.6% 50.4% +28000
Kevin
Tway
$8,100 0.6% 5.5% 49.7% +14000
Sam
Stevens
$8,200 0.6% 6.9% 52.8% +11000
Benjamin
Taylor
$8,800 0.6% 7.8% 53.7% +9500
Garrick
Higgo
$9,700 0.5% 5.3% 46.4% +5000
Charley
Hoffman
$8,900 0.5% 5.7% 50.2% +7500
Dylan
Frittelli
$8,500 0.5% 6.5% 52.5% +10000
Harry
Hall
$8,400 0.5% 6.9% 53.9% +11000
Adam
Long
$8,500 0.5% 7.3% 54.3% +11000
Peter
Malnati
$8,500 0.5% 7.5% 54.7% +10000
Erik
van Rooyen
$9,000 0.5% 5.0% 44.4% +6000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for The Honda Classic

The odds on Sungjae Im are too steep, so we're instead seeing some value on both Aaron Wise (+2500) and Alexander Noren (+2600).

I also like Jhonattan Vegas (+3700) a bit more than the model does. He's been phenomenal tee-to-green lately.

Brandon Wu (+9500) and Callum Tarren (+10000) are long shots with some outright appeal.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for The Honda Classic

All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Sungjae Im (FanDuel Salary: $11,900 | Golf betting odds: +700) - There's nobody in the field on the level of Sungjae Im, who won here in 2020 and followed it up with a top 10 (and then a missed cut last year). Im is a positive in all four strokes gained stats over the past 50 rounds, and he is the chalk for a reason. As evidenced by the missed cut a year ago, anything can happen even for the favorites (his salary was $12,000 last year at this event). Yet as far as a process play goes, nobody is in Im's tier.

Aaron Wise ($11,600 | +2500) - Wise has finished 13th, 35th, and 33rd in three of his past four starts here (he did miss the cut last year). He has missed his past two cuts by a combined three strokes, yet that's just reason to think he'll be less popular than he should be. The long-term data on Wise has his win odds in my model popping unlike anyone other than Im's and Alexander Noren's.

Taylor Pendrith ($10,600 | +3100) - Pendrith is nuclear off the tee in terms of distance. That's not a must. However, he has the rare combination of distance and putting (though it's getting a little less rare with some of the up-and-comers). Pendrith debuted with a T25 here last year while ranking top-12 in both strokes gained: off the tee and strokes gained: approach. We've seen a lot of top-15 finishes for Pendrith at fields like this one last summer.

Others to Consider:
J.T. Poston ($10,500 | +3100) - Balanced game puts him in great position this week.
Jhonattan Vegas ($10,100 | +3700) - Vegas has had good form at PGA National and is a great ball-striker.

Mid-Range Picks

Cameron Davis ($9,900 | +4500) - Davis is super long off the tee, which isn't a must but always helps at almost any setup. He's the 11th-best ball-striker in the field and is 35th around the green. The question for him is the putter. The three consecutive missed cuts have his salary lower than what the upside is.

Stephan Jaeger ($9,300 | +5500) - Jaeger finds himself ranked 14th in true strokes gained over the past 50 rounds thanks to ranking 44th or better in all three tee-to-green stats. Jaeger's putter has run cold, leading to weak results.

Others to Consider:
Hayden Buckley ($9,600 | +5000) - Leader in off-the-tee play and 9th in ball-striking; short game is the issue.
Byeong-Hun An ($9,100 | +4500) - Great course history; not the best form, yet has pop weeks lately.

Low-Salaried Picks

Brandon Wu ($8,900 | +9500) - The model likes Wu well enough at the 95/1 number. He has been missing cuts (three of the past five to start 2023), but what he does provide is consistent driver play (18th), which is virtually always bankable.

Adam Schenk ($8,700 | +13000) - In terms of finishing positions, Schenk has done pretty well lately for the salary. He's been T20 at the Farmers, T37 at Pebble Beach, T23 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T50 at the Genesis Open. A lot of it has to do with the short game, but he is also a top-55 tee-to-green option overall.

Others to Consider:
Padraig Harrington ($9,000 | +5500) - Pretty dominant on the Champions Tour and European Tour lately. That has value here.
Ben Taylor ($8,800 | +9500) - Largely gaining strokes with approach, but putter is good too.
Sam Stevens ($8,200 | +11000) - Starting to get the PGA Tour figured out; great Korn Ferry golfer with good ball-striking.