College Basketball Betting Guide: 3/13/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Ohio State vs. Michigan

Ohio State +6.0: 3 Stars out of 5

Ohio State and Michigan both advanced to the Big Ten Semifinals yesterday, and it sets up a high-profile matchup for Saturday afternoon. Michigan is ranked fourth in our nERD based-rankings, compared to sixth for Ohio State, and Michigan won a tight game against the Buckeyes earlier this season by a final score of 92-87.

Our model projects a very close matchup, giving Michigan a slight edge with a projected final score of 71.57-69.72. We project Michigan to win by 1.85 points, which is more than four points fewer than the betting line for Saturday.

We project a 62.21% likelihood of Ohio State covering the 6.0-point spread, so we like this as a three-star bet.

Tennessee vs. Alabama

Tennessee +3.0: 1 Star out of 5

This is another high-profile matchup, as Alabama is ranked seventh in our rankings, compared to 18th for Tennessee. We project a slight advantage for Alabama, giving them a 56.1% chance to win and predicting a final score of 72.66-71.12.

Tennessee has impressed this season, battling through a difficult schedule. They have won against Colorado (13th by nERD), Arkansas (15th) and Kansas (17th), so they have proven they can compete and win against top competition throughout the season.

We forecast Alabama will win by 1.54 points, and we give the Volunteers a 54.85% chance to cover the 3.0-point spread, making this a one-star bet for Saturday.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas

Oklahoma State +1.5: 1 Star out of 5

Oklahoma State is on an incredible run at the moment, as they are now 8-1 in their last nine games with wins over Texas Tech (27th), two wins over Oklahoma (37th), two wins over West Virginia (16th) and a win over Baylor (5th). The victory over Baylor came yesterday.

Oklahoma State falls in at 31th in our rankings, just a smidge behind 23rd-ranked Texas. However, the Cowboys are clearly trending in the right direction, and they certainly seem poised to make a bid for the Big 12 Championship.

We have this game as almost dead even, giving Texas a 50.8% chance to win, with a final score projection of 70.13-69.95. Given that essentially nothing separating these two teams, per our model, we like Oklahoma State +1.5 points as a one-star bet, giving it a 54.45% likelihood of hitting.