College Basketball Betting Guide: The 3 Best Bets for Conference Tournaments
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Big 12 Tournament
Baylor to win -140
Baylor is ranked fifth in our NCAA basketball team rankings, which is 10 spots ahead of West Virginia, which is rated as the second-best best team in the conference according to our metrics.
Baylor also earned the advantage of getting an easier path to the conference title by getting the top seed in the conference. Baylor gets a bye in the first round, along with the other top six teams, and then they will play either Texas Christian (107th) or Kansas State (201st).
Every other team will be matched up with a top 35 opponent in the quarterfinals unless Iowa State upsets Oklahoma in the first round, so the bracket provides Baylor with a huge advantage compared to the competition. This plus their dominance in the conference throughout the year makes them the clear favorite to win this tournament.
USC to win +230
Southern California is the 2 seed in the PAC 12 Tournament but they are the highest-ranked team in the league at 10th in our rankings. USC and Colorado are way ahead of the rest of the league in the rankings, with Colorado checking in at 13th and then Oregon being the next highest team after that at 31st.
USC and Colorado are set for a potential semifinal matchup, and the winner of that game will likely be the conference champion. We do have USC ranked higher in our rankings, and USC should also get an easier road to the semifinals if there are no upsets in the first round of the tournament.
If the top seeds advance in round one, USC will face Utah in the quarterfinals, who are ranked 77th in our rankings. Colorado is slotted to play 59th Stanford in the Quarterfinals, so that will certainly be a much tougher matchup for them than what USC is facing.
This conference has a clear-cut top two teams, and USC has an easier road to the championship, so USC is the best pick to win.
Arkansas to win +300
Arkansas is having a fantastic season, and they finished the year at 13-4, good enough for second place in the conference. The Razorbacks are firmly in the top three of the SEC according to our rankings, and there is a clear drop-off after that.
Arkansas gets a good draw in the SEC Tournament, avoiding the other top two teams in the league until the SEC Championship game. Alabama (seventh in our rankings) and Tennessee (16th in our rankings) are both in the top half of the bracket, so Arkansas will avoid them for as long as possible.
While Alabama and Tennessee are facing each other, Arkansas gets a much more favorable matchup against the 34th team in our rankings in Louisiana State in a potential semifinal matchup. Arkansas has the best chance to make the finals given the bracket, and they will have a legitimate chance to win if they do make the final.