NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 2/27/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Killian Hayes Under 21.5 Points + Assists (-128)
The Detroit Pistons have a long injury list tonight, with Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic and Jalen Duren all out (and Isaiah Stewart questionable). They're going to need some of their ancillary pieces to step up against the Charlotte Hornets. While Killian Hayes figures to see a lot of playing time, I like the under on his points-plus-assists combo.
With Ivey, Duren and Bogdanovic off the floor this year, Killian Hayes' numbers haven't changed all that much. Over a meaty 198.2-minute sample without those three, Hayes is averaging 13.1 points and 8.0 assists per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ, which are slight increases of only 0.2 points and 0.2 dimes per 36. His usage rate rises just 0.3 percentage points -- up to 20.5%.
That puts him on pace for 21.1 points plus assists if he sees 36 minutes. Our model has him logging 32.0 minutes.
On top of that, the Hornets have been stingy against point guards, permitting the sixth-fewest points per night to the position (23.4). Charlotte has been right at the league average in terms of assists allowed per game to floor generals.
We project Hayes to record 12.2 points and 7.1 assists -- 19.3 total. There is some decent wiggle room on this one.
Derrick White Over 3.5 Assists (-140)
Unlike what we just went through above, this recommendation is an example of an injury situation really boosting a player's output.
Jaylen Brown is out tonight for the Boston Celtics, and with Brown off the court this season, Derrick White generates a whopping 6.2 assists per 36 minutes -- a jump of 1.3 assists over his season-long mark.
A date with the New York Knicks helps, too. New York has given up the eighth-most assists per night to point guards (9.1).
With a 2.5-point spread in this game, there's not much blowout risk, so White should get his minutes.
Our model projects White to amass 5.7 assists across 36.0 minutes. This is a prop bet to smash.
