NCAAB

College Basketball Betting Guide: Monday 2/27/23

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Feb 27th, 2023
Norfolk State is a road underdog tonight at North Carolina Central. Should you bet on the Spartans to pull the upset?

College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. The season is heating up as conference play winds down, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.

Using our projections as a guide, which bets should you make via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Southern at Florida A&M

Florida A&M +7.5 (-112)

Florida A&M has covered in three of its past four games, and there are reasons to back them to do it again tonight in a SWAC meeting with Southern.

Southern stomped the Rattlers by 18 when they met earlier this season. The Jaguars' season has taken a turn for the worse of late, though, as Southern has lost five of its last six games. They've stunk against the spread (ATS), too, going 1-5 ATS in that six-game run.

While the Rattlers aren't exactly flying high, they've been respectable in recent weeks. Half of their eight wins on the season have come across the previous eight games.

Our model likes Florida A&M to keep it competitive. We project the Rattlers to lose by 4.5 points and give them a 59.1% chance to cover the 7.5 points. Barttorvik is also on Florida A&M, projecting them to lose by just 3.3 points.

Norfolk State at North Carolina Central

North Carolina Central Moneyline (-156)

This is another bet our model and Barttorvik agree on.

North Carolina Central and Norfolk State are pretty even squads, and both sides are playing well, with NCC winning five in a row and the Spartans winning seven of their past eight.

Our nERD-based rankings have Norfolk State 169th and NCC 179th. KenPom sees it similarly, placing Norfolk State 178th and NCC 191st. Barttorvik, however, has the two teams flipped, ranking NCC 185th and the Spartans 194th. So, all in all, this should be a pretty close game, which is why the spread is just 1.5 points in North Carolina Central's favor.

Once you factor in homecourt advantage, it's easier to get on NCC's side. The Eagles are 12-1 overall at home this year and have gone 6-2-1 ATS in the split. They've covered in three straight home contests.

Norfolk State, meanwhile, is 6-6 overall away from home and is just 5-5-2 ATS on the road. They've been a road 'dog five times this year and have lost all five games, although four of those defeats came against top-shelf competition (Houston, UCLA, Nevada and Baylor). The other one was a loss to Old Dominion (150th by nERD).

This -156 moneyline price -- which has already jumped this morning from a -130 number -- implies win odds of 61.0%. That still underrates NCC, per our numbers, just not as much as the earlier -130 clip did. We hand the Eagles win odds of 67.6%. Barttorvik is right in line, projecting NCC to win 66.0% of the time.