NHL Betting Guide: Monday 2/27/23
What Monday's five-game slate lacks in quantity it makes up for with quality. Boston and Edmonton could be a Stanley Cup Finals preview, but there's another game popping with value, too.
Where should we start the week on the right foot?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators
Under 6.5 (-112) - 2 Stars
This number implies a bit of a shootout, but these two teams don't profile for that kind of game.
Since January 1st, Detroit and Ottawa have allowed the 8th- and 13th-fewest expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes in the NHL. These are two defensive-oriented clubs.
While the Senators have parlayed their defensive success with the ninth-most expected goals (xGF) per 60 minutes (3.41) in that same period, the Red Wings are third from the bottom (2.67) in that metric. Detroit has cashed the under in four straight thanks to its offensive ineptitude.
So, the skaters are solid, and that's the adjective I'd use to describe the goaltenders, as well. While they aren't stellar, Ville Husso (3.32 goals saved above expectation) and Cam Talbot (3.56 GSAx) have been top-40 netminders this season -- and most importantly, they are not a liability.
Our model sees the under as 58.6% likely to hit versus these 52.4% implied odds. By value and the price of the odds, this is numberFire's best wager of the day.
Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers
Oilers ML (+114) - 2 Stars
Under 6.5 (-108) - 2 Stars
Now, onto the main course. This high-profile showdown is -- thankfully -- also showing value in the model. We'll all want to catch this one if we can.
When combining offense, defense, and goaltending, there's a case to be made Edmonton is the best team in the league at the moment, yet they have just a 4-2-4 record in their last 10 games. Close, extra-period losses have masked their performance.
The Oilers have posted the fourth-most xGF per 60 since January 1st, and they've tallied the second-fewest xGA per 60 in the same span. That's a top-five club on both ends of the ice, and Stuart Skinner (11.11 GSAx) has been more than serviceable in net. He's 14th in GSAx in the entire league.
Boston has the better reputation, but they're actually the club influx. While their sturdy defense has held (fourth-fewest xGA per 60 minutes since January 1st), they're scoring the eighth-fewest xGF per 60 in the NHL since the calendar turned. Linus Ullmark (27.87 GSAx) is the Vezina Trophy favorite, but his goal support is drying up.
As a result, our model likes the Oilers and the under in this one. It sees Edmonton as 51.3% likely to win versus these 46.3% implied odds, and it sees the under cashing 56.5% of the time against the 52.3% implied odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
