NBA Betting Guide for Monday 2/27/23: The Celtics and Knicks Are Trending Toward an Over
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-230)
Only four games await us on Monday night's slate, and not all of them are showing a lot of value. That's okay.
We do see enough value on the 76ers to beat the Miami Heat to back their moneyline at -230 odds. The 76ers are pretty much at full strength. The Heat are listing both Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro as questionable.
Even with the assumption that Lowry and Herro play, my model likes the 76ers well enough. numberFire's model likes the Sixers' moneyline as a three-unit suggestion.
Notably, Philadelphia is 24-9 at home with a 65.6% cover rate and a +5.7 opponent-adjusted net rating. Miami, on the road, is only 13-19 with an adjusted net rating of -3.4 and a 43.8% cover rate.
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
Over 223.0 (-110)
The Boston Celtics are going to be without Jaylen Brown for tonight's game, but their splits remain strong without him.
In games with Jayson Tatum but with Brown off the court, the Celtics have a net rating of +14.0 and an offensive rating of 124.1, an elite mark, over nearly 2,000 possessions.
The New York Knicks have a relevant offensive rating in this game of 118.2. While they also boast a better-than-average defensive rating of 113.6 overall in their relevant sample, they've allowed 59.4% of opponents to go over their implied team total at Madison Square Garden.
So, we're getting two strong offenses and a modest total overall to beat (just 223.0).
My model is expecting 229.1 points in this matchup as a result of the relevant samples here.