3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 1/26/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Julius Randle Under 2.5 Made Threes (-106)
Julius Randle is up against the Boston Celtics tonight, and that has me on the under on his three-point prop.
Boston does a great job limiting three-point tries. For the season, the Celtics have surrendered a three-point attempt rate of 36.1%, the fourth-lowest. The power forward position is making only 2.3 threes per night against Boston, which is the 10th-fewest.
Randle is coming off an 8-for-12 explosion from deep in his most recent game. But in the eight games prior to that one, he finished with two or fewer made triples six times.
Our model projects Randle to go 2.0 for 6.3 from three tonight.
Jaden Ivey Over 4.5 Assists (+114)
We've had success this year targeting the over on Jaden Ivey's assists prop. All those cashes came with the line set at 3.5. The market has shifted lately, and Ivey's assist prop is now routinely set at 4.5. Despite the higher number, I still like the over tonight.
Ivey is taking on the Brooklyn Nets, a team that has given up 5.4 assists per night to two-guards, tied for the ninth-most. The Nets haven't been a fast-paced team for most of the year, but they're playing faster in recent games, checking in 12th in pace over the last five. The Detroit Pistons are first in pace in that split, so this should be a high-scoring affair, something that's reflected in the 234.5-point total.
Ivey is averaging 5.1 dimes per game for the season and has dished out at least six assists in four of his past five outings.
We need just five to cash this bet, and our algorithm has Ivey projected right at it, forecasting him to record 5.1 assists today.
Deandre Ayton Over 17.5 Points (-122)
Deandre Ayton is set to return on Thursday for the Phoenix Suns, and despite a tough matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, this number is too low, according to our model.
Dallas has been good against centers this campaign, giving up only 19.5 points per game to the position, the fourth-fewest. But with Christian Wood out, the Mavs haven't been nearly as stingy versus bigs, permitting 23.8 points per game to centers over the past seven contests.
That helps our cause, and so does Devin Booker's absence. With Booker off the floor, Ayton owns a 26.4% usage rate and scores 21.9 points per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ. That's a usage-rate bump of 2.2 percentage points. In games with Chris Paul but sans Booker, Ayton's usage rate rises to 27.1%.
We have Ayton netting 19.4 points on Thursday night.