3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 12/20/22
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Klay Thompson Over 4.5 Made Threes (+116)
Klay Thompson can have a big night from downtown against the New York Knicks.
The Knicks give up a three-point attempt rate of 42.4%, the fifth-highest in the NBA. They also surrender the 10th-most three-point shots per night to shooting guards (9.4).
That should lead to a lot of three-point tries for Thompson, who is averaging a career-best 9.8 three-point attempts per game this season. His three-point attempt rate of 59.4% is another career-high clip. He's hoisted 11-plus three-pointers in four of his last seven games.
Our model projects Klay to go 4.6 for 11.9 today from deep. That's basically right at this line, but with the over at +116 and the under at -148, the over is the side to be on.
Kyle Kuzma Under 2.5 Made Threes (-128)
In terms of three-point D, the Phoenix Suns are on the opposite end of the spectrum from the aforementioned Knicks. That has me on the under on Kyle Kuzma's made threes prop.
For the season, the Suns have held opponents to a three-point attempt rate of 35.9%, the fourth-lowest. They're allowing the 12th-fewest three-point tries per game to the small forward position (7.7).
Kuzma has been unsustainably hot from three of late, hitting 40.0% from beyond the arc across his past 11 games. That's bound to regress. He was making just 30.05 of his threes this season prior to that 11-game span, and he was a 34.1% shooter from three last year.
We project Kuzma for just 2.1 made threes today on 6.3 attempts.
Jaden Ivey Over 3.5 Assists (+128)
Jaden Ivey has notched at least four assists in three of his past five games. He's averaging 3.9 dimes per night for the season as well as 4.7 assists per 36 minutes.
That per-36 mark makes this over seem like a slam dunk. But while I like the over, there's definitely some risk here, because Ivey hasn't topped 30 minutes in eight straight games.
But we have Ivey projected for 30.4 minutes and 4.5 assists in what should be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair against the Utah Jazz. The total is 230.0, the spread is 2.5, and both teams rank in the bottom six in defensive rating.
Given the +128 price on the over, it's a fantastic bet.
