NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 1/26/23: Getting Creative on a Night With Big Spreads
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics
Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets
Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers
Moneyilne Parlay Combination Between Boston Celtics (-360), Brooklyn Nets (-350), Cleveland Cavaliers (-360), and Los Angeles Clippers (-850)
I have to be honest: I'm not seeing much tonight.
Four of the six games have a spread of at least 8.5 points, and another is 6.0 points along with some pretty relevant questionable tags (that being the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets).
So, why not get creative?
Relying on numberFire's win probabilities, each team in this parlay opportunity is at least 75.0% likely to win, and the odds that all four win works out to 48.2%. The implied odds at 48.2% are +108. This four-team parlay is bettable at +133 on FanDuel Sportsbook, suggesting odds of 42.9%.
If you are concerned about any leg among the four, here's a snapshot of expected odds and actual parlay odds based on the win probabilities.
| Moneyline Parlays | Combined Win Probability | Expected Odds | FanDuel Sportsbook Parlay Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston, LA Clippers, Brooklyn, Cleveland | 48.2% | +108 | +133 |
| Boston, LA Clippers, Brooklyn | 57.0% | -132 | -122 |
| Boston, LA Clippers, Cleveland | 55.0% | -122 | -122 |
| Boston, Brooklyn, Cleveland | 55.5% | -125 | +108 |
| LA Clippers, Brooklyn, Cleveland | 65.2% | -179 | -122 |
The parlays including Boston moneyline legs are a little weaker overall because of their win probability of 75.0%. A Clippers/Nets/Cavaliers parlay is very lively at -122.
Totals to Consider
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics: Over 221.5 - In addition to the Boston moneyline (-360), the over is appealing. Both Marcus Smart and Mitchell Robinson are out, and each team still has a relevant offensive rating of at least 116.6 based on current health. My model is expecting this game to score closer to 230 than 220. numberFire's algorithm leans on the over, as well.
Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets: Under 236.0 - In games with Kyrie Irving but without Kevin Durant, the Nets are 3-2-1 in terms of the under, and in games with Irving but with Durant off the floor, their offensive rating is only 114.5. Games without Durant have averaged 229.8 points.
