3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/5/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Joel Embiid Over 33.5 Points (-114)
It's hard to take the over on anyone's points prop when the line is 33.5 points, but Joel Embiid should go nuclear on the Indiana Pacers.
The matchup is a great one. Indiana is allowing 27.5 points per game to centers over the last 15 games, which is the sixth-most in that span. The tanking Pacers are playing out the string and have mailed it in on D, failing to hold any of their last six foes under 120 points. On top of that, Goga Bitadze exited early last game, and if he can't go tonight, Indiana will be woefully short on big bodies to throw at Embiid.
Embiid just blowtorched the Cleveland Cavaliers for 44 points last time out, and the Cavs are a much, much better defense than the Pacers. Embiid has netted 34-plus points in three of his last five games, and he could make a loud MVP statement tonight.
Our algorithm projects Embiid for 33.1 points -- right at this line. But I side with the over and am expecting a huge game from the Philadelphia 76ers' star.
Trae Young Under 27.5 Points (-108)
Trae Young is scorching right now. The Atlanta Hawks' guard has scored at least 30 points in four of his past five games, and two outings before that span, he dropped 45 on the New York Knicks.
But Young has a really difficult matchup tonight against the Toronto Raptors.
The Raps have limited the point guard position to 21.4 points per night over the last 15 games, the fourth-fewest. Young has scored 41 and 22 in two meetings with Toronto this season, and he was an unsustainable 17 for 24 from the field in the 41-point outburst.
We project Young to put in 26.4 points in this one.
Aaron Wiggins Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+140)
The Oklahoma City Thunder-Portland Trail Blazers game is going to be a great environment for three-pointers.
Over the last 15 games, no team is giving up a higher three-point attempt rate than OKC (45.0%). The Blazers are right behind with the third-highest three-point attempt rate allowed (44.8%). Bombs away.
Of the seven players with a made threes prop on FanDuel Sportsbook, Aaron Wiggins is the only guy with plus money on his over, and it's already fallen from a mark of +155 earlier today. We can still feel good about jumping on the over at +140.
While Wiggins doesn't hoist a bunch of threes, he went 2 for 6 from deep against these same Blazers on March 28th, and we project him to hit 1.5 threes on 4.7 attempts today.
Our model has this close to 50/50, but it's not priced that way. With the over at +140 and the under at -180, the over is the side you want to be on.