NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 3/23/22: Breaking Down a Big Slate
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets
New York Knicks (+8.0) - 2 stars
New York Knicks Moneyline (+265) - 1 star
Under (224.5) - 1 star
numberFire's model isn't keen on too many games tonight, so I'll be digging mostly into some one- and two-star plays (i.e. one- and two-unit suggestions for our bets, per the model).
The algorithm does like the Knicks to cover an 8.0-point spread with a 61.0% likelihood. That leads to an expected return of 16.5%.
My model anticipates a spread of 5.0 points for the Charlotte Hornets, meaning it also sides with taking the points for New York.
Julius Randle is doubtful, but without him on the floor this year, the Knicks have had a net rating of +6.0. Even just in March, they're still at a +2.6.
There's a one-star lean on the Knicks' moneyline (+265) and the under (224.5), as well.
Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers (+7.0) - 2 stars
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (+235) - 2 stars
Under (230.5) - 2 stars
We're seeing two-star plays across the board in this game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Lakers.
Over each team's last 10 games, they're hovering around .500. The Sixers are 6-4, and the Lakers are 4-6.
Our model thinks the Lakers are 59.4% likely to cover and 38.7% likely to win, giving us access to both their spread and moneyline. FanDuel Sportsbook shows just 55% of the spread money and 53% of the spread bets to be on the 76ers, so it's not a runaway line here.
Since 2016, 7.0-point home underdogs have a 51.0% cover rate and cover by an average of 1.5 points. With LeBron James red-hot, the data says the Lakers should cover.
San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers (+9.5) - 4 stars
Over (231.0) - 3 stars
We're well into the doldrums of the NBA season, and a matchup between the 28-44 San Antonio Spurs and the 27-44 Blazers won't really remedy that.
However, we can bet it all the same as a marquee game.
numberFire's algorithm really likes the Blazers to cover a spread of 9.5 points.
Of note, in the 25 most comparable games to this one in numberFire's database, teams representing the Blazers are a respectable 10-15 outright but are, more impressively, 19-6 against the spread, good for a 76.0% cover rate.
Since 2019, home teams who are 9.5-point 'dogs have a 54.2% cover rate.
Even with the Blazers reeling, they have covered in half of their past eight games and in four of their past six.
