3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 11/19/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Domantas Sabonis Over 16.5 Points (-122)

Domantas Sabonis and the Indiana Pacers draw a plus matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, a team that ranks 25th in estimated defensive rating.

Not only are the Hornets not a good defense, they're also overperforming lately. Over their past 10 games, based on the shot dispersion they have allowed to opponents, the Hornets should have allowed 114.6 points per game if opponents shot at the league-average rate. They've actually allowed "only" 111.9 in that span.

The Hornets also allow 22.1 points per 48 minutes to opposing frontcourt players, which is 27th in the NBA.

numberFire is projecting Sabonis for 18.2 points. My simulation model, assuming a baseline of 18.2 points, would see Sabonis as 58.1% likely to go over this prop and get to 17 points or more.

Zach LaVine Under 25.5 Points (-112)

Zach LaVine's off to a great start this season.

The Chicago Bulls' guard has averaged 26.2 points per game across 35.2 minutes per game. That's good.

The shooting efficiency is up, which is to be expected with such promising scoring numbers.

His effective field goal percentage is up to 56.7%. That compares to a four-season rate of 54.8%. He's also shooting 87.5% from the line, up from 83.0% over the past four seasons combined.

Overall, numberFire's model projects LaVine for 23.5 points over 34.5 minutes tonight against the Denver Nuggets, who are top-10 in points per 48 minutes allowed to opposing backcourt players. Denver is also sixth in estimated defensive rating.

LaVine, at his projected shooting volume tonight (but at his four-year shooting averages as opposed to his in-season averages), would be projected for only 23.1 points.

Gary Trent Jr. Over 17.5 Points (-112)

The point-per-game average (17.1) for Gary Trent Jr. is below his prop, and numberFire's model projects him for just 17.6 points, but it's the over that has more value tonight than the under.

Here's why.

The Toronto Raptors are up against the Sacramento Kings, who are just 21st in estimated defensive rating and are last in the NBA in points per 48 minutes allowed to opposing backcourt players (26.8 -- with only one other team also allowing at least 23.6 points per 48). That's a very exploitable matchup.

Trent Jr. is nearly matching his four-season shooting splits this season (a 53.2% effective field goal percentage this season compared to 52.8% over the past four years combined), so he isn't in line for a big step back in the efficiency department.

So this one comes down to shot volume and matchup -- not even a hope for shooting regression.

Again,Trent Jr. is projected by numberFire for 17.6 points but would get to 18.0 on his four-year efficiency across the projected shot volume.

If we anticipate the efficiency to increase given the cakewalk matchup, then that's all it takes for him to get to 18-plus points.